Member Info for kibu

Some of us have been around the block a few times. Today was a little different. Not ONE person eased off the bus at Rissik/Pritchard - a huge investor letdown considering earlier Lonrho RNSs. Half an hour later, we had some "easytime" in Soweto. Not good news. 168 people arrested there in disturbances this weekend. Meanwhile, despite massive pumping from Fastjet stories, our tyres have not been above 9psi for more than a few minutes. We may have a serious puncture. "Fast" is how the new European managers are learning about African aviation. Nairobi don't have no Dunstable Road and ain't like Luton. "Slow" is how it goes. I am a parrot because I've been saying this stuff for five years. I'm pro-Fastjet partly because of their humour - using a parrot logo; having an African airline CEO called Winter; and doing business with Lonrho/Lenigas. Get a bus pass and enjoy the ride. kibu

Winnie's tyre-kicking At the risk of having a posting removed, it might be time to remind the rose-tinted brigade that Africa is not changing quite as quickly as SW2/9 despite Lonrho's assurances. Back in the eighties SW2/9 was volatile and 'exploded' in '81 and '85. The skips appeared and, remarkably, it "gentrified." Down in SA, in '85, ANC supporters "necklaced" a local politician. (Stick a tyre round a victim, fill it with petrol and set light to it.) Winnie, wife of Willie Mandela, thought this was a great idea although the ANC officially condemned it. Horrendous and outrageous as it was, necklacing returned to South Africa in 2008. On 27 March 2008, David Lenigas wrote,"... crisis, unrest and scandal are always preferred by the headline writers to political progress, economic growth, development and stability ... we are seeing evidence of significant progress and that socio-political stability in Africa continues to improve." [Lonrho Annual Report] "Necklacing" came back to the townships in May 2008. Partly it was a reaction against the mass influx of Zimbabwean 'refugees.' And in Zimbabwe "Uncle Bob" was having a gay old time with his indigenization policies which had expensive consequences for Lonrho - aborting Fly540Zimbabwe, selling out LonZim, struggling with Celsys, land issues in Harare. Lonrho continues to promote the complete funk about Africa having most of the world's fastest-growing economies and, of course Geoffrey and Dave, you are quite right. These economies are on four wheel overdrive. Winnie Mandela, 76, currently a member of the South African Parliament, will check the tyres. kibu

Short-term, Lonrho's got more risk on peaches than parrots. Fastjet is a nice little Lonrho ruse that may help their next (inevitable) cash raising. It's a medium-term punt. There's some fantastic potential in Fastjet. If the masses buy in, the stock will go higher. (And "The Sun" says ... ) Up on 'fever' today. Buying the stock on the way up and selling it when it's euphorically popular seems like a good idea. A few days ago Galvan picked it for their 'Share tip of the year' mailed to dozens and dozens of people in Truro. Watch it rise and be ready to profit on Fastjet. Meanwhile, DYOR on the reference point of risk about Lonrho. Compare early 2008 and early 2009. De risk in early 2013? Kick the tyres hard before you get on this bus. kibu

Watch everyone joining the Lonrho bus: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0Kxfgw-2fE This beats Fastjet hands down. Very fast turnaround on boarding times.

Allowing for buy/sell spread and expenses, you'd have lost almost DOUBLE the failure that was quoted in "Sat 10.50" BB posting summarising Times's Tempus. Four hundred quid cash invested then would give you about three hundred quid cash now. Be honest. kibu

Why's no one checking in for the night at the corner of Rissik & Pritchard? Seems that most that get off the bus head straight for Edgars or McDonalds and then go home. Guess it's not easy to find a hotel in that area. kibu

Overheard at breakfast at the May Fair Hotel this morning: Loud, rotund Australian: "A couple of nights ago, I was out for a few drinks with some friends and had a few too many beers. Knowing full well I may have been slightly over the limit, I did something I've never done before - I took a bus home. I arrived home safely and without incident, which was a real surprise, as I have never driven a bus before, and am not sure where I got this one."

Fastjet has just announced a 'provisional agreement' to purchase defunct SA airline 1time. The price is 7p but there will be a package of obligations that will lower the bargain value. It's a risk and the planes are not as wished but it represents a great opportunity for Lonrho/Fastjet to bring SA into their network. More positive news is that the discussions with Emirates are reaching a more formal stage that, defying any obvious logic, could result in some form of commercial agreement. The sound of rustling paper is still more likely to be freshly printed share certificates than dividend payment slips but if anyone's mad enough to buy the story, Fastjet could jump. For the moment, it seems the chocks are having difficulty getting away.

If you're on the Pritchard Street bus approaching Rissik Street, could you just look out of the window and check on the Easyhotel progress? Supposedly this project in Johannesburg, just opposite Edgars, was to have been Lonrho's first Easyhotel of many. Like other Lonrho projects, it's all revs and no torque. The Easyhotel website has plenty of talk on the other hand but the date, which has now been put back to 'end of the year' looks unlikely too. The booking platform doesn't even list the hotel. An update from Lonrho is long overdue.

Missed your 8.30, jollyspeculator, but caught another at 6.54 this morning and made more dosh today than in a typical two weeks gainful employment. Was rather surprised that there were so few passengers on the Lonrho 8.30 and that it's now collapsed to '7 and something.' My recent 'holds' are beginning to look bearish. Perish the thought. I've now moved to 'no opinion' because the last time I had no clue about Lonrho it fell to 1.9p. Tuesday morning, I'll be on a 7.24 heading south and clueless about Lonrho. Which carriage will you be in?

The Emirates deal, were it to happen, would bring some respectability and extra business. Chance would be a fine thing. Think Cathay Pacific and Ryanair or Singapore Airlines and Easyjet. Duh? Of greater interest (and faster potential impact) is the deal to take over bust 1time. Not only would this get fastjet into SA where there are no Fly540 operations, it would also give Mr Winter and his crew a market much more likely to benefit from their experience. SA's economy is nine times the size of Tanzania's but with a similar sized population. In Tanzania, about 85% of the population jolly themselves on a daily income of less than $2. Lonrho's talk of the 'expansion of the middle class' largely comes down to Tanzanian President Kikwete's heroic personal efforts. Foreign tourist bottoms should boost PLFs. Also, SA is a significant trading partner for Tanzania. Tanzania's fast-growing Precision Air would be the competitor as they already fly the Jo'burg route. Nonetheless, still looks good potential for fastjet as they seek to buy themselves market share. kibu

Thankfully Lennie's not Lonrho's pilot. While he was in charge, Fly540 had some crashes including fatalities. Fly540 Angola is still officially registered an EU 'banned airline.' As captain, he lost millions of shareholder funds on NorseAir, then Lonrho Aviation, Fly 540 Zimbabwe which never flew, and Fly 540 Angola - 'ready' in 2008 but without a paying passenger till last year. Oh, and then there's all the confusing (and costly) stuff with Fly 530, Don Smith and maintenance crews. Lenigas' grip on the joystick appears far from firm. Lennie's gone? Well, hardly, as anyone familiar with the Lonrho structure would know. David Lenigas has taken a vellum-thick stroll to his new desk. Truth be told, with Dave and Stelios both Monaco residents, he won't get more than ninety days sitting in front of the aforesaid or he'll have to pay tax like the rest of us. Were Stelios to do some heavy mentoring, 'Dave' might learn to fly. Track record shows that it'll probably be 'Dave' giving the skills training on keeping permanently afloat. kibu

Strewth, what is this, censorship or the Thought Police? The stars deleting the full URL are uk-analyst and then there's a "com" with a dot between. Er, are there any adults here? ***** Hey, c'mon LSE, what gives? Can't we share URLs anymore?

Two years ago I was fighting a rear-guard action against abusive BB posters who declined any debate about Lonrho's financials. Yet I've called Lonrho spot on (bar the drop to 1.9p) since 2007 and, looking at this article from 2 years ago, http://**************/shop/page-advice/action-advertorial.show/id-130008794, would recommend potential investors read, research and contrast with the bullish views of recent posters. The story hasn't changed much but it would have cost half your stake. kibu

"M, m, m, m, meaningless" kibu 30 November 2012 Lonrho's BOD often quotes McKinsey data about Africa's growth."7 of the top ten growth economies are in Africa."(RNS7350G et al) It also gets trotted out by uncritical and agenda-driven posters on various BBs. fastjet's the latest user of these figures. Delve deeper into McKinsey's statistics, cross-check with UN and CIA data and you will find that DRC's outstanding 7.2% growth has taken wage earners up to the dizzy heights of $6 per week, Zimbabwe - 9% to $9, Uganda - 5.2% to $25 and Kenya - 5% to $30. So every Kenyan can afford a fastjet ticket once a week? No, and that's not fastjet's point. Lonrho and fastjet talk about a booming middle class. Yet that's where the data gets murkier. McKinsey's data, as they clearly state in their report, is arithmetical. True wages for the masses are even lower in those countries with super-annuated elites such as Equatorial Guinea, Zimbabwe and Nigeria. And DRC? If this spectacular growth continues, the second largest African country will have an average personal weekly income, in seven years time, of $9.76. About the price of the 'T' in a G&T at Grand Karavia. Little wonder that Lonrho's business model, with further Central African instability this week and possible war looming, is increasingly high risk. Are the growth rates true? One factor affecting reported growth rates (surprisingly not highlighted by McKinsey) is that subsistence economies, as they grow, have higher transactional visibility. If I give you two dozen eggs in return for six bales of straw, there is no effect on GDP. If we exchange money, there is an effect on GDP. It goes up. This is a feature of developing economies. More transactions are reported. GDP goes up. Truthfully, there is zero growth. Outsiders looking in, beware. Brisbane Boys' alumni such as Lenigas will tout and repeat the most useful statistics available until they seem true. Lonrho's CEO pounds the same figures but, pressed, will turn whiter. Talking about Ghana, he says, "we're building," then when asked more directly by the interviewer, "we're going to build" and, pressed further, "we should have all the concession agreements in place by this August." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAV7c6s7spc "The White Rabbit seems to shift back and forth between pompous behaviour toward his underlings ... and ... obsequious toward his superiors." [Lewis Carroll] kibu

fastjet's maiden flight and the build-up have attracted enormous coverage. The hype is extreme (Daniel Stewart talking of 'profit in 2013' and the figures of '40 planes and $1bn turnover' getting recycled around the journals) and there's no critical analysis. Good news for the share price and investors who are seeing higher volumes and a share price clawing its way back from recent lows. At the present rate it might reach July's placing price by next week. A doubling in the present price would also add about 2p of value to the Lonrho share price - not inconceivable if the weekend press continues the coverage or the stock gets tipped - especially in the run up to Christmas. Not a reason to buy Lonrho but maybe something to put brakes on the present slide which has seen the shares fall 30% since April against a flat FTSE All-share. kibu

Rumours around that Fastjet might be talking to Zimbabwe's Fresh Air. Fresh Air was due to start flying this month but the launch was pulled when joint partner SA's 1time went bust. 1time's licence and defunct operations were earlier mentioned as of interest to Fastjet who hurriedly went to the market for $2.4m cash. Meanwhile 1time's former directors have applied for a new operating licence to launch SkyWise in 2013 with two Boeing 737s. Nice pictures of the Tanzanian landing of the new Fastjet plane (in reality, a repainted ex-Easyjet plane) on the website http://www.facebook.com/fastjet

Local Tanzanian airline Precision Air (12 planes - 737s + ATs) shows an all-inclusive price, broken down at ticketing into ticket, tax and fuel surcharge. Fastjet's headline $20 daily flight to Mwanza is a non-inclusive price to which the customer must add everything else. It's still appears an incredible deal, however. And all seats show available at this price Precision Air charges $252 one-way on their four daily flights.

Lots of bullish noise coming from the Fastjet camp. HB Markets, for example, recommending this morning and Lenigas "delighted" (RNS7468R). Maybe it's only a minor technical detail for Lonrho shareholders who own most of Fastjet but they are offering seat prices on their two routes for less than the cost of their fuel. It's a curious business model for Africa.

Is the BOD behind those steering wheels? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0Kxfgw-2fE Jeff Skilling was a great fan of activities like this.