Member Info for Kempseyman

I've invested in an explorer, but has JP has lost his appetite for risk in Morocco? Strange as he still has appetite for fresh risks in Argentina, Bolivia, offshore Indonesia etc all of which appear to me as riskier than drilling 3 back-to-back wells here with all the seismic and geometry work, 30+ TCF upside, third party peer review assessments done?. As further evidence......no.... better not mention the number 3.1M. Perhaps he is fully intending to drill but flushing out some earlier offer? Interesting times..... GLA

I'm at a loss to really understand why JP feels he must stop exploring Morocco and sell. If we are sold before 9/10/11 unless my hopes/expectations of minimum £5 then I would feel short-changed. I bought into an explorer and if the Paleo is as huge as is intimated, will I be compensated, unless there's some contingency built into the LE?
James impressed us at the Shard, but now I wonder if, back then, he had in some way verbally committed a sale to a major, subject to proving up the Tagi with a decent GSA, production licenses in place and good seismic? Would not be at all surprised if the GSA RNS was accompanied by a temporary suspension of shares....LE following shortly on?
Currently languishing c.40p undoubtedly affects investor sentiment going forward. I'd suggest if we were currently still in the 70p region, there might be more PI's looking to progress the drilling rather than sell up and move on?

It has been good reading on the bb today. Thanks to those promoting some decent discussion and the interesting links. GLA

Who remembers the similar price stagnation of 2016 where we were rangebound c.15p for months and months. Can clearly recall conversations where in spite of positive rns's we rose up fitfully before dropping back. The market just didn't want to know. New investors stayed away. Frustrated holders bailed for greener grass. And then........up we flew. Hoping for some similar price action.GLA

@bobsnest @albus, I fancy the train experience a la Messrs Tarrant and Portillo. Probably the Monday pm c.6hrs. Train station is right next to hotels. I'm in the Ibis

@Lelo, yes I'm travelling up from Worcester for the Deep Dive

For info, with all the enthusiasm this week I've firmly decided to go and have booked.
Flying Saturday 13th LGW to Fez direct and cheap, for a couple of days, then Monday 15th Train to Oujda. Anyone else doing Fez? Meet up?

IF we have a LE which sells the company before I feel the play has been proven-up, there is the likelihood of buying shares in the purchasing company (assuming it's a public company).
It is also quite possible that any LE could consist part cash and shares in the purchaser. So retain their shares to keep yourself invested in Morocco. Just a thought.

And of course James has experience of setting up a contingent sale of assets when pulling the Company out of a country. As in 2012 when he extracted Sound from Indonesia which had turned rather messy and was no longer a core operation to us.
He pulled out on terms which allowed for future payments to Sound of up to $16M and relieved us of all funding liabilities going forward. As it turned out, the new operator Pan Orient Energy did have some success eventually and I believe we had a payment of c. $1M in 2016. Not a large figure in the scheme of things in E. Morocco but shows that James will do deals and has the corporate experience.
This is the route imo we will finally go down. The mantra, " Explore, prove up, sell" is fine in theory, but it seems that the company wants to sell asap. With the new deep structures identified by the seismic, then the "proving up" won't have been done for us to get full value. If the new Paleo is as big as being inferred who will get the advantage of our discovery? Us or the purchaser? All imho
GLA

Mr Gasbag we might get a clue on the 25th. Lunch being provided, could there be caviar served up? GLA K

Does anyone else find it quite amazing, that a potential geological formation at Sidi c.10 TCF, but in the scale of the Eastern Morocco potential, is almost seen by Management as a giveaway/ deal-sweetener?

For any other AIM company, a potential that big would be a company-maker! Makes me wonder just how big the Eastern Morocco cake is for a 10 TCF Sidi to be a distraction??? Just what does Eastern Morocco hold for us if proven!

oops, should have mentioned my appreciation to all of you who attended and produced notes and comments, appreciated.
K

Firstly thanks to SO on a superb write-up.

I have asked James several times on his thoughts on contingent/deferred payment on a company sale and every time he has firmly expressed his preference for clean sale. It has bothered me that James, I feel became distracted by ECHO and CORO, when there is still so much to play for here! First time i see contingent sale as a serious discussion point here now. Just wondering how did it get thrown up? Was it raised by Rothschild, bringing parties together for a quicker sale?
Has Schlum expressed a wish to go the distance and fully explore the Paleo before walking away? Would certainly reduce the risk for a potential buyer who might be baulking at paying mega-bucks on a tight geology formation.

From our perspective it could mean an earlier sale "with strings attached" and/ but if the Paleo turns out as big as intimated, then better returns for shareholders.... depends on your attitude to risk. Personally would get my vote if initial payment satisfies.
See a few of you on the Deep Dive
K

Surely there has to be a GSA announcement before any decision could be considered for an offer for the company?

They're all taking advantage of the free beverages. Hope they don't overdo it.....We don't want another fundraise now!

I suspect any decision to delay testing a fully drilled hole can be taken at the time and no need to broadcast the company's thoughts in advance. From my TE7 site visit, I remember the confidence of the drilling team that it was a good hole. Downhole testing and the Managed Pressure Drilling system they were using told them a great deal. Talk of passing through fissures, gas analysis and comparisons with other holes etc all later confirmed with a commercial result. If we were drilling a duster then would expect that info to leak into the market pdq. I'm unsure of your thinking behind testing all three holes simultaneously after drilling 250SWB? Care to discuss? K

Just wondering what this new RNS does for the maths COS on the overall TE9/10/11 planned programme? A buyer looking in now has got to factor in that the reduced risk has moved in Sound's favour. There could me more buyer competition.... We haven't drilled TE9 yet but two cracks at a structure on TE10 has certainly made me feel a lot more comfortable. I reckon if there was an open offer to raise more funds now, at this price, I'd be first in the queue GLA

Trellis, all IMHO but I think the positivity on this board is simply driven by a positive attitude to risk from the majority here. We are after all an explorer.
I have explained my investment in Sound to friends, and told them the COF (failure) was perhaps 70 percent. They looked at me like I was mad to consider putting money into such a gamble. I do appreciate the opportunity of a multiple drill program, so am sticking around for the end-game.
Interesting that mining and oil and gas exploration ventures focus on the positive ie the COS and not the COF. I do wonder if the BoD talked COF would there be so many small pi's invested here?
Deep dive on 25th should be interesting......GLA

If the BoD could put together a plan to sell off Tendrara/ Anoual/ Sidi for a decent price, but retain exploration rights on a massive unproven Paleozoic geology it would get my vote. Two bites of the cherry? I would have appetite for that ongoing risk. Rinse and repeat etc. .....or maybe I'm getting ahead of myself? Any reason a deal such as described could not happen? Cannot understand why James has said he has preference for a clean break. We're an explorer- so with the size of the Paleo why risk giving up on an unproven play or will the seismic have derisked it, even without a major drilling programme ? GL

And that 30 percent-ish figure is just for the TE9 well.
I'm pretty heavily invested here and wouldn't have so much riding if I thought that it was all about TE9 .
See a few of you in London

Davey.... you seem to be doing your best to put a negative slant on everything that Exploration posts. I, and I'm sure many others enjoy reading some of his detailed technical information not that I understand it all, however I do often lookup many of the references which he cites and form my own opinion on the veracity or otherwise. Perhaps a bit more objectivity from yourself might be in order? How anyone feels that the occasional posts on a bulletin board is likely to affect the endgame of our investment is beyond me. That said GL, we're on the same side :-)