Value will out20 Nov 2018 15:53
It’s clear from today’s interview on Share Talk that if the metrics derived from the EWT at Horse Hill can be applied to UKOG’s other assets, the net present value (NPV) of the company is very substantial. As investor sentiment waxes or wanes, at any point in time markets can substantially overshoot or undershoot fair value.
I said last week that I feel UKOG is at a turning point in terms of market dynamics. The mood music surrounding it for its past year, its annus horribilis, has been shockingly bad. With our determined seller, Solo, almost gone (I personally feel it is still unloading), sentiment will improve.
Today’s Share Talk interview wasn’t the best forum to talk through NPVs, interchanging dollars and pounds, and making assumptions about the time value of money, price of oil, life of assets, recoverable oil in place, number of wells, oil pads, etc. Far better, and clearer, to have set that out in a presentation.
But the overwhelming sense from the interview is that - in terms of supply side market dynamics - UKOG is now becoming a very different beast. Through these EWT results, it has “pretty much just left the station” in terms of transforming itself into an integrated oil company. IF the metrics from the current EWT are generally applicable across its assets, its NPV is far in excess of its current “car crash” value resulting from its annus horribilis. Investors, whether its army of small retail investors, or big institutions and other oil companies, will increasingly see this. Value will out, and the share price will re-rate accordingly - no doubt with some "over-exuberant" froth along the way.
Ideally, to further improve the market dynamics of the share, I’d like to see Stephen Sanderson choose to purchase equity in the company he runs at the same price as his army of retail investors, and not simply rely on options awarded to him by the company, at (from memory) less than half a penny a share. The two are completely different, for obvious reasons (eg current shareholders post tax earnings always risk being wiped out, whereas his post tax money continues to luxuriate in the warmth of his pockets), and affect actual and potential investor sentiment differently.