Portfolio news - Exscientia announces multi-target, AI-driven drug discovery collaboration with Bristol Myers Squibb
Frontier IP, a specialist in commercialising intellectual property, notes the following statement from portfolio company Exscientia Limited ("Exscientia" or the "Company") announcing that it has entered into a collaboration agreement with Bristol Myers Squibb.
Exscientia statement begins:
Exscientia announces multi-target, AI-driven drug discovery collaboration with Bristol Myers Squibb
Upfront and potential milestones of over $1.2bn in addition to tiered royalties
Exscientia, the clinical stage, Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven pharmatech company, announced today that it has entered into a collaboration agreement with Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE: BMY). This expanded collaboration has the potential to add to the Bristol Myers Squibb drug pipeline whilst enhancing Exscientia's portfolio of shared assets. The collaboration will use AI to accelerate the discovery of small molecule therapeutic drug candidates in multiple therapeutic areas, including oncology & immunology. The agreement includes up to $50 million in upfront funding, up to $125 million in near to mid-term potential milestones, and additional clinical, regulatory and commercial payments that take the potential value of the deal beyond $1.2 billion. Exscientia will also receive tiered royalties on net sales of any marketed drug products resulting from the collaboration.
This expanded collaboration builds upon Exscientia's existing collaboration with Bristol Myers Squibb that was initiated in 2019 with Celgene prior to Celgene's acquisition by Bristol Myers Squibb. Exscientia will take responsibility for AI-design and experimental work necessary to discover drug candidates associated with this collaboration for Bristol Myers Squibb. Molecules will be designed using Exscientia's AI-driven drug discovery platform, which delivers optimized compounds fulfilling complex design goals faster and more effectively than traditional drug discovery.
Andrew Hopkins, CEO of Exscientia, commented, "We are proud that Bristol Myers Squibb wants to build on our work together with this expanded collaboration and believe it speaks to the strength and promise of Exscientia's AI technologies and drug discovery expertise. We're excited to work with such an experienced collaborator as Bristol Myers Squibb to develop the best possible medicines for patients."
Rupert Vessey, President of Research & Early Development at Bristol Myers Squibb said, "We have been pleased with Exscientia's work in tackling a number of distinct projects for Bristol Myers Squibb. Exscientia's application of AI technologies is proving capable of generating best-in-class molecules while also reducing discovery times. Rapid discovery of molecules that can enter the clinic in a timely manner could positively impact our work in discovering treatments for areas
So you can see
https://twitter.com/kaneinthename/status/1394929518956134400
You lot are a sad bunch!! I’m not going to waste my time here with you.
Again you were all happy to throw money at this company at a higher price now all have turned into stale bulls because you’re in the red!! You are all pathetic
I have 5012206 shares in my isa with an average some here could only dream of and your trying to suggest I’m stupid??
I think you are the stupid ones buying so high!!
Good luck the next time I post will be once I’ve sold to gloat some more at you pathetic stupid old stale bulls!!
You were happy to throw money at this at a higher price but because it’s dropped and you’re seeing red it must be a Ponzi scheme lol!!!
Either average down sell up or fek off!!! Stop moaning like a baby every day!!! Stale bull!
It will take as long as it takes. New bod global licensing deal agreed for one product 2 still to go the sooner you realise it’s not going to happen tomorrow the better for you and everyone that has to read your constant negative comments!!
I got a reply to some questions I asked last week here’s the response
In answer to your questions:
- I can confirm that finalisation of a global licensing agreement with Oxilio for NXP001 would be announced (RNS)
- I can also confirm that Nuformix will hopefully be able to run some investor events and as you say circumstances permitting, that will be communicated as appropriate
Lots to look forward to here !!
You could always average down or sell up if it’s bothering you that much!
If it goes lower than my current average I will buy more.
NFX is looking to license the asset before Phase I, in which case we would anticipate a global deal value of between $360-450m, in upfront and milestone payments, plus single digit royalties on sales, increasing in value in proportion to the stage of development of the underlying asset: from feasibility up to the full Phase I ready GLP package, assuming successful outcomes and based on recent precedent. We illustrate a range of deal metrics in IPF to support our assumptions. Industry precedent shows that once a robust patent position is built, even early stage IPF assets are attracting significant deals in the indication. While pipelines are filling out, the novel approach, acute need and the inhaled route of administration are key factors that can differentiate NXP002.
Then you have NXP004. I doubt the price will be this low for much longer so make the most of it while you can!! I have
GLA!!!
From the Allenby report
Ebers and Vistagen: Previously the Group announced two agreements with third parties centred on applying the Company’s IP and performing fee-for-service work on their proprietary drugs. Whilst these agreements have provided Nuformix with undisclosed revenue and certain milestone payments, these agreements are not material for the Company’s ongoing strategy or future revenue.
Looking like dividend not until September now ?
Dividend update: In March, i3 announced that it had allocated C$2m (c.£1.16m, or c.0.16p/shr) in relation to its maiden dividend payout. The company had committed to announcing a special dividend in Q1, before moving to a regular biannual policy, to be announced with the interim results in September. This regular dividend will be set at up to 30% of free cash flow, implying a payout of up to c.US$3.3m (0.34p/shr) with respect to H1 operations (paid in H2), and implying a 7.7% running yield going forwards.
Dividend update: In March, i3 announced that it had allocated C$2m (c.£1.16m, or c.0.16p/shr) in relation to its maiden dividend payout. The company had committed to announcing a special dividend in Q1, before moving to a regular biannual policy, to be announced with the interim results in September. This regular dividend will be set at up to 30% of free cash flow, implying a payout of up to c.US$3.3m (0.34p/shr) with respect to H1 operations (paid in H2), and implying a 7.7% running yield going forwards.
Payment of the initial dividend has been delayed somewhat due to the requirement of balance sheet restructuring to create distributable reserves. This administrative process requires formal judicial and shareholder approval, and a court date and EGM are expected to be announced imminently, in time for payment most likely early next month. The dividend in relation to H1 2021 activities will be announced and paid in H2.
Financial forecasts and valuation: Based on an average Brent oil price of US$60/bbl and Henry Hub gas price of US$2.75/mcf, we forecast 2021 EBITDA of US$22.4m, pricing the company on an EV/EBITDA multiple of just under 5x. In line with the company’s stipulated policy of 30% of free cash flow to be returned to shareholders, we expect c.US$3.3m to be paid out in relation to H1 2021, equivalent to c.0.34p/shr and placing the company on a healthy running yield of 7.7%. On DCF, we value i3 at a Core (2P) NAV of 16.4p/shr (NPV10), at which we set our target price.
Inorganic growth opportunities: With the two acquisitions successfully bedded-in, i3 is now actively scoping fresh opportunities for growth alongside its organic growth strategy in the Clearwater play. We estimate that the company started the year with around US$8.5m of cash, and forecast a further c.US$9m of FY21 free cash flow (net of dividends) which can be used for acquisitions. With net debt/EBITDA at a forecasted 1.1x (FYE21), there is also the potential to use debt finance for new transactions, providing options other than just new equity to finance larger deals. Any transaction priced below 5x EBITDA will be incrementally accretive to cash flow and dividend yield per share (assuming like-for-like funding structure), illustrating the growth potential through M&A.
We initiate coverage on i3 with a DCF-derived (2P NAV, NPV10) target price of 16p/shr. Note that this does not include any value for the Serenity discovery in the North Sea, worth an additional 5p/shr risked on our numbers. Our target price currently offers some 93% upside, with additional upgrades likely in the event of success with the ongoing farm out process on Serenity, and further M&A activity in Canada. Accordingly, we carry a BUY recommendation.
Clearwater growth: i3 has earmarked the Clearwater oil play in Alberta as a major growth region and has recently consolidated its position with the acquisition of c.50 sq km of new acreage. A key attraction here is the inexpensive drilling costs, and the pure oil play offering far greater margins than gas (for reference oil currently accounts for c.16% of i3’s production but over 35% of current sales). Approximately 20 sq km of Clearwater acreage was acquired through a recent Crown Land Sale, for a total consideration of under US$300k, and c.30 sq km (net) will be earned through a farm in agreement with a local operator. i3 will acquire a 50% stake in the latter, in return for paying 75% of the costs of two development wells and committing to paying its pro rata share (50%) of a further seven optional wells. The total firm work programme is expected to cost US$7m, net to i3, and with gross initial production per well of around 150 bopd (75 bopd net), wells pay back in around one year. The first well is expected to spud later this month, providing a steady stream of drilling newsflow over the next 12 months or so.
i3 Energy has enjoyed a good start to life as a full-fledged producer. The company has successfully completed the integration of c.9,000 boepd of Canadian oil and gas production purchased over the course of 2020, and announced its maiden dividend in Q1 2021 as promised. Since taking ownership, the assets have outperformed CPR expectations by over 10%, and the company plans to bring a new well onstream before the end of this quarter with c.500 boepd of net production. Oil prices have also outperformed expectations – we forecasted 2021 Brent oil prices of just US$45/bbl at the time of the acquisition, versus our current forecast of US$60/bbl, vastly improving i3’s entry price (to just 1x FY21 field level cash flow). With the stock already offering a 7.7% running yield (c.2x covered by FCF), and further accretion possible on the back of organic and acquisitive growth, we initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation and a 16p/shr target price.
Strong operational performance: Over the three-month period ending 31 March 2021, production averaged 8,856 boepd (c.40% liquids), which was some 10% higher than CPR expectations, despite inclement weather conditions over the period. Production is expected to receive a near-term boost with the imminent tie in of the Noel Falher well in Northeast British Columbia. i3 expects the well to come onstream at sustainable rates in the region of 500 boepd, with first gas expected next month. This will boost group output by nearly 6%, and illustrates the potential for organic growth within i3’s portfolio.
Hedging policy initiated: i3’s recent update included confirmation of the company’s new hedging policy, with contracts acquired covering in excess of 50% of near-term production. Almost 70% of gas production has been hedged through to 31 October this year at an average price of c.US$2.3/mcf, bridging the summer months when gas pricing tends to be weaker. Meanwhile a further 750 bpd of oil and 200 bpd of condensate, equating to roughly a quarter of total liquids production, has been hedged until year-end at an average US$56.7/bbl and US$26.4/bbl respectively. Going forwards, i3 plans to hedge 50% of oil volumes, and 50-70% of gas volumes in order to protect the dividend and maintenance capex.
https://i3.energy/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/i3-Energy-Hit-the-ground-running.pdf
007] It has been reported that tranilast has the ability to induce or enhance neurogenesis and, therefore, could be used as an agent to treat neuronal conditions such as cerebral ischernia, glaucoma, multiple sclerosis, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, Alzheimer's disease, neurodegenerative trinucleotide repeat disorders, neurodegenerative lyosomal storage diseases, spinal cord injury and trauma, dementia, schizophrenia and peripheral neuropathy (A. Schneider.
EP2030617).
[008] Tranilast's beneficial properties have been reported to have utility in several ocular conditions. Tranilast is currently approved in Japan and Korea for the treatment of allergic conjunctivitis. W02010137681 claims the use of tranilast as a prophylactic or therapeutic agent for the treatment of retinal diseases. The anti-fibrotic properties of tranilast have been reported to be of benefit in maintaining the filtering blob during glaucoma surgery and this has been demonstrated in a pilot study in humans (E. Chihara..1 Glaucoma. 1999; 11(2): 127-133).
006] As has recently been demonstrated, in-vitro and in-vivo, tranilast also possesses an anti-tumor action. Tranilast has been shown to inhibit the proliferation, apoptosis and migration of several cell lines including breast cancer (R. Chakrabarti. Anticancer Drugs.
2009 Jun; 20(5): 334-45) and prostate cancer (S. Sato. Prostate. 2010 Feb; 70(3): 229-38) cell lines.
In a study of mammary carcinoma in mice tranilast was found to produce a significant reduction in metastasis (R.
Chakrabarti. Anticancer Drugs. 2009 Jun; 20(5): 334-45). In a pilot study in humans, tranilast was shown to have the potential to improve the prognosis of patients with advanced castration-resistant prostate cancer (K. lzurni. Anticancer Research. 2010 jul; 30: 73077-81).