Member Info for KamuGorbert

lol, I'm not upset and everyone is entitled to their own opinions, it's just needless speculation. Ofc nothing said here changes the direction of NEX, I just know that many inexperinced, new investors fall for promises of buy-outs, takeovers and short squeezes while these events are much, much more rare than "investing" forums would suggest.

Take-over is super unlikely in the current environment. I find it pretty upsetting when people on boards on these point to these extremely unlikely events such as a take-over, buy-out or short-squeeze as an investment thesis.

Wow, you became on of us! One of us! One of us!

I agree that it's a possibility, but I'm not quite sure if it would be a good idea at this time - NEX has some troubles to sort out for now (finding new CEO, managing debt, cashflow, optimising current operations to reduced demand) - I don't think it's time to consume a part of FGP's business which has its own issues.

I would be much happier to see them snatching school bus contracts from FGP and expanding their current US operations than outright buying FGP's business.

You didn't, you just invested in a company for a dumb reason and you behave as if that RNS you keep linking here means something, while you clearly don't understand the science behind it.

A vaccine without any scientific evidence about its efficacy or safety! Your scientific knowledge seems to be even worse than your effect on this board.
If you expect mass vaccinations before mid-2021 you're absolutely out of your mind. Even that is super optimistic. Production capacity is going to be low in the beginning, and even before that, Phase 3 trials normally take years. COVID vaccine will be expedited, sure, but there is only so much we can do - clinical trials (and gathering proper, scientific evidence) takes years by virtue of it being impossible to know the safety and efficacy of a vaccine without observing patients for a while.
Good luck to you (and me, as I'm in a sizable loss here) but your "buy catalyst" does not hold its ground.

I really don't understand how this made you invest. There are so many other vaccines that are already in Phase 3 - why did this one, entering a combined Phase 1/2 (way behind many other companies) convince you so much?

...How fecked am I?

Agreed Chris and Falk. We should not expect a quick recovery on this, but I have to agree that the results posted no real surprises that would make me doubt holding this company for the long term - perhaps aside from the fact that their short-term tangible assets (cash + receivables) barely cover their short-term accounts payable. Of course they do have a lot of sources (government, undrawn facilities) to aid with this issue.

I am down by 35% on them, but holding due to long-term prospects. Anyone predicting the short-term, or even long-and mid-term short price is full of ****. The value of the company is a different matter, and I have faith in their long-term prospects due to what you outlined, Chris.

This time I have to agree with you on both of those points Falk :p

This vaccine is currently in Phase 1 - entirely untested. I am positive on the outlook of National Express in the medium to long term and agree with a lot of your previous points, but pointing at a Phase 1 study's success as proof that this whole thing will be over in a few months is absolute *******s.

Even after we have a vaccine it will take a long, long time to vaccinate the whole population - the best candidate at the moment is AstraZeneca's vaccine.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/aug/13/covid-vaccine-tracker-when-will-we-have-a-coronavirus-vaccine

J&J is partnered with Janssen Pharma - just completed Phase 1.

Absolutely, true for the other side too - you might think the share is worth 400, or 450, or 150, but predicting when, or even if, it would reach that price is completely unfounded and dumb.

Very nice numbers you got there, care to explain how you got 'em?

Nobody knows, but the recent trade worth half a mil is probably not from a retail investor like us, guessing prices on this forum. :p

Why specifically 125p? What valuation method did you use and why this specific number? If you answer that in full detail, I would actually see your thought process.

I'm not ramping anything, I know the risks well. However, your analysis of price movements does not predict anything at all, or gives any conclusive evidence.

Do you know CEOs in your private life? There are so many reasons he could be leaving, the company doing badly hardly being one of them. New challenges, wish to change industry, a good offer from Persimmon... Literally endless reasons. Him jumping off a sinking ship is one of many, definitely not the most likely explanation. However, he was definitely a good CEO with a huge amount of industry experience, and it will hurt NEX in the short-medium term.

Why sell his shares? I agree it's concerning, but as Peter Lynch said, there are thousands of reasons an insider can sell (many of them having nothing to do with business at all!) but only one reason they buy. Look at insiders buying shares at higher prices and march lows - clear sign of confidence, and I hope we get some more of it soon.

66-277 on no real news? What news are you watching? The whole market rallied on pure sentiment, mostly based on "positive news" on COVID. NEX moved with the market until the CEO left.

Placing at 240p should primarily instill you with confidence that institutions are willing to buy this share at 40-45% more than it's trading for now. I don't see how that's a negative sign?

If you have anything regarding fundamental data or industry insight, please do tell. Otherwise, kindly hound some other forums. Cheers.

So you're shorting the stock? On what grounds, what's the short summary of your research and findings?

Absolutely spot-on, all of the posts here. What we shouldn't forget about is the departure of Dean Finch, who in effect turned the company around from near-bankruptcy 10 years ago. We don't know how this will affect the business in the short or long term, especially regarding growth - ROE, ROCE, ROA.

Additionally, Monks, in your valuation you forgot to mention the 20% dilution of shares, so in reality we should discount around 60% (20% dilution, 50% lost revenue + 10% for some goodwill regarding recovery) from the 450ish share price beforehand. I think around 250-270p is around fair value now, with all the uncertainty regarding future growth perhaps understandable to have it around 220p. It will all depend on their earnings report in August though as it's hard to speculate their EPS (might even be negative) for this period - they will only report until 30th of June. By the end of the year we should see better results, especially for the factors you outlined around contracts and such.

Cheers, glad to have people like you doing actual research and facilitating discussion here.

Jesus Christ, stop. What's your point of being here, predicting prices? Are you a fortune teller? Why 135p? How much do you value this business for? What DCF model do you use for this valuation? Are you an industry expert? Are these random numbers based on fundamental analysis, technical analysis (lol), or just your highly relevant "feelings?" Ask these questions about yourself and anyone else posting random numbers.

I don't know the future of the share price, I don't know the business in its current state, nobody does until August the 13th when they release their statements.

I bet you're over 60 or under 15 mate. Good luck in life.