Member Info for KAMEL17

The truth of the matter is that it is volatile and for some traders that's great. I genuinely think this company is a crock of you know what; however that's not to say i'd never invest. IMHO, long term there is no other conclusion to draw than that this company is probably doomed. On so many levels they have been founding continually wanting: innovation 0/10 all new ventures have pretty much bombed and even simple things like updating the woeful poker client were an absolute disaster, stewardship and leadership ( is it possible to give less than 0/10?) they are an utter guddle. Their competitors are and have left them way behind only a PROPER root and branch review of the business would even identify the scale of these issues. The potential purchasers will have been sought hefty price reductions to allowe them to extricate themselves from this miasma of utter confusion doused in undoubted loss making, the scale of which is probably not actually even known. On fundamentals this is not worth north of 60p and this has been my long held view - however these fundamentals are worsening by the day. No-one expects the results to be good and it's really just a question of how bad they can bad be. The SP is supported by the prospect of a takeover. There must be a point though where the risk reward favours the buyer and that's the judgement call for the investor to make. In order to gauge the opinion of others - what would the point at which you'd consider the SP was balanced in your favour and why?

At around 2:30 this bounced of 90p and once this has been breached there does not appear to have been another resistance point. Could this be Emerald Bay or Springowl unloading at speed?

Although at this rate - it would not be until after 4pm.

I suspect that you may have assessed this perfectly. It is of course possible that any likely bidder's appetite to even proceed with talks has been thwarted by the news from 888. If the BOD had to announce that there are no talks in progress (possibly in tandem with the release of the results) then this could be an absolute horror story. Really hard time to be holding here as if a deal were to be delivered it would against the backdrop of a very volatile SP however the drop today is of course the flipside

I did of course mean no news whatsoever. Perhaps Norbert has submitted his expenses claim or stated that he wishes to stay forever.

This appears to be in freefall on news whatsoever.

None at all. This has come straight out of left field and there is certainly nothing taht i can see in the public domain that would warrant such a sizeable drop.

This was indeed an unexpected move - it does however show the potential value of market share and consolidation. William Hill shall no doubt be keen to consolidate their position and at £2.10 I actually think that this makes sense for them. It is just a shame (for me) that the usual numpty at Ladbrokes (Richard Glynn) did not think they were worth a quid not so long ago. Glynn should phone up Norbert for a fourball as they will both soon have plenty time on their hands. I just wonder if either is capable of adding up their scorecards on their own without help

There is of course a real possibility that the business is not saleable and that the genuinely small pool of potential purchasers has already been exhausted. The announcement of the next raft of trading figures is unlikely to assist at all and indeed the history here that when news is delivered it is often worse than expected. I had thought that something would have been announced by now to fundamentally alter the business either: a) a takeover/ merger b) divestment of wholly underperforming parts of the business c) radical cost cutting regime (not the dipsy doodling attempts this far that have only been partially delivered anyway) There is really nothing else that they can do. Is there? If the current malaise is accompanied by inaction on the takeover front: there must be a real chance that the SP could fall sharply as the Company would be percieved as being utterly directionless. On fundamentals this business is not even worth 60p. If the underlying support that the SP enjoys through speculation over takeover and/or US entry wanes even slightly this could easily become uninvestible at anywhere near the current levels. The exit at 109p does indeed look like an excellent decision

This has been my worst investment of all time. I had genuinely expected that even the thoroughly hapless Glynn would presided over the delivery of some sort of upturn by now. CVC have been sniffing around this since 2009 and the low SP, availability of cheap money would suggest that a takeout is likely (should they want to do so) at an SP not very far north of this. I would have preferred that PTEC had a bash in their own right- however this just does not seem likely for a raft of reasons. There needs to be an appointment od someone with real insight and enthusiasm for the online offering. The hapless and idiotic Glynn just bottled every opportunity and held this company back by five years

Tough times for holders here, however at this SP there is an opportunity for those inclined to take a freeroll on this. The fundamental business is sound and anything relating to CD4 achieved is a bonus. If the business does deliver here there is an excellent return available at minimal downside risk for those who partake. The recent reductions in SP are possibly overdone and whilst the Directors' buys at the tail end of last year were hardly substantial they were possiblly indicative of short term confidence. All in my opinion and of course as always do you own research.

I'd wish you the very best of luck with that and I'm sure that there will be some renewed interest at some point relatively soon. Regarding the £1.30 though - I'd just make the following observations: The price moved to just north of £1.20 on the last batch of speculation and at that time there must have been a greater expectation of a deal with Amaya. In the intervening period there has been little evidence that there is a competition for this business and the number of potential buyers has probably been reduced. The 'toxic' parts of the business are problematic and as such a break up seems inevitable (and very much in the shareholders' interests). Without being privy to the details - it does seem clear that when others have run the rule over the business the problems may or may not have been at the expected levels. Given the shambolic way the company has been run, it seems inevitable that overs were perhaps underwhelmed and chose not to proceed. The SP has actually held up fairly well in light of the market volatility, the poor results and the apparent lack of progress with any sale. Is this company really in a better positiion that when the SP was in the low 80's? The retention of an SP north of £1.00 would indicate that there is still something brewing. Jason Ader's involvement has been a non event and it has been a terrible investment decision for him. Nothing that they have done has added any real long term value and during the period of investment the current Board have continued down the same path of delivering nothing but failure. Ader is not the answer and never was. The launch of their uttterly amateurish website at the outset spoke volumes. The introduction of Pokerstars in NJ is perhaps not so much a concern now. IMHO, and as i have always thought, I'm sure that they will get in eventually. The issue is that in a prosperous state like NJ, Bwin have failed even in the face of limited competition. i would be hard to convince that even if Bwin did get the green light in CA, it would be far from certain that this Board would actually make it profitable. Against the backdrop of failure in NJ, the pot of gold that was at the end of the rainbow looks rather puny now. All that being said, I hope you obtain a good exit price when the takeover/ sale speculation resurfaces. I say when because it is patently absurd to consider that this business be allowed to continue on its current path to eventual extinction. Best of luck

Missing sentence from below The article that indicated a break up value of @ £1.45 should have been prefaced by the phrase "Once upon a time"

This was written in Dec 13 "All the good news has come and gone and this will drift ever downwards until the announcement that the level of profitability earned from NJ is a major disappointment. Even if these clowns get a year before Pokerstars re-enters the market, in whatever guise, all of the marketing spend and the limited traffic would be wiped out in no time at all. Pokerstars would not even need to advertise." The Board have even botched the US venture- as I had predicted much against the concensus of this BB. No-one should be under any illusion that the current mangement will simply continue to wreck the business The truth of the matter is that there are elements of this business that no-one would take for free and the recent articles demonstate the difficulties. If a suitor cannot be found very soon (this has already been well and truly hawked around the market) to take this on I suspect that a price chipping opportunity will be created from the fire sale that this is becoming. There remains upside but this IMHO is diminishing daily and there is now a very real chance that the remaining interest is limited to those who consider any form of premium for this is totally unnecessary. In the absence of news this purchase point may be considerably lower if the SP difts over Q1 of this year. My own view is that only PTEC would genuinely be interested in a somewhat risky punt on the elements of this business that are not already too toxic to consider. The article that indicated a break up value of @ £1.45 should have been prefaced by the phrase " Good luck all. I do not hold here and i merely follow the sector and these are only my opinions as always DYOR.

Frankie IMHO, This is an excellent article that is both well considered and well thought out. The underlying proposition to prospective bidders is not altogether unattractive however there is no one buyer that would take the lot. Amaya would look at this but why on earth would they pay a premium. I 'd suspect that offers to the Activist Investors/ remaining Trust holdings could be purchased very cheaply now and the Board toppled even more easily. The BWIN part of the business offers no threat to Amaya (other than if it were to be revitalised by someone new) and the ability to access as yet untapped markets ( some of which are not even profitable) appears to have limited appeal. The cost savings would be considerable though as BWIN is massively over resourced and currently ineffective. Notwithstanding this, there would appear to me to be little incentive for Amaya. On the other hand, I can see Playtech as a potential suitor who could aspire to improve this business alongside a vertical integration with their own business. Playtech need something like this to further develop and whilst this opportunity is probably not the best -it is currently low hanging fruit. I'd imagine a part cash and part stock offer in PTEC is likely to materialise at some stage. The Kalixa element of the business will no doubt be spun off as many on here have already foreseen. As to the pricing of any predatory offers - who knows really!, however if the bulk of the business is not liable to an auction with multiple bidders then it is entirely conceivable that there may be little in the way of premium. This in my opinion is now quite probable. I had mused in the past about the possibility of the likes of Facebook, Google or Yahoo getting involved but given the passage of time this just seems less and less likely. All that being said ,At the current price of £1.05 there may be surely be a little upside somewhere, even if it is just trading on the speculation. I'm out now out for good though and to Frankie, crookman, wingnutter et al. Good Luck

I suspect that it will be Playtech who will eventually end up with the majority of this.

AT 86p I thought this was worth a punt, not because of anything other than something had to give and the malaise ended through outside factors. The Board and the Activist Investors are clueless and almost entirely worthless. At 122p, I'm happy with the outcome and I'll take my profits. Best of luck to those of you who remain invested and I hope that you are rewarded. Kind Regards

Well you certainly got that right!

The question many holders must be asking is whether taking 1.88p now would be a good deal. I suspect that unless there is some form of update there would be no buyers once the large spread is considered. The prospect of getting say 2.5p in around 8 months or so and possibly beforehand represents a return of 33% and there would be few on these boards would not take this every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Of course the final payout is unknown and there is risk here, however whilst it may be less and even nothing, a final payment of over 2.5p is also a distinct possibility too. The 2.5p is a simply a guess based upon a median expectation and everyone must do their own research. Good Luck everybody

The other aspect of this that may be interesting is that I'd imagine some holders will exit entirely prior to the delisting. Those shares will be bought up by interested parties who are gambling on receiving an excellent return on their 1.25p-1.5p in a relatively short space of time. There will be some who are "in the know" and the demand for the shares may well give a pretty good steer as to the eventual outcome. Good luck all. P.S. shylock I had a dabble with FJET as it does appear to have a strong chance of a positive outcome. By way of a reciprocal recommendation, have a look at Omega Diagnostics. They are local to me and I'm hearing good things at the moment and they are a very well run outfit. Hope things are good with you.