Member Info for Kaiser_B

So Arry,

You're assumption is that we issue shares to grow the company, no offence but if those 1 billion shares that you claim we will issue and those 1 billion shares added to our 2.5 billion in issue right now get the company to a market cap of say 10 billion, would it be worth it?

I am not saying that the BOD will issue a billion shares to grow the company but everything does have to have a context to base it against, doesn't it?

Can I ask you a question Arry? If say our rivals such as Sylvania Platinum dropped massively in Market Cap and we had to issue a billion shares to buy the company outright, would you welcome that transaction?

Sorry about the duplicated message, I didn't do that, as I was still writing the post at the time. So please accept my apologies.

Arry,

A billion shares issued in the next few years, prey do tell what on? What is this company going to spend approximately 160 million quid on in the next few years?

You, also, state that the shares will be issued because of the difference between future costs against revenue, but what extra costs do we have at the moment? The Zambian assets are paid for and the concentrators and re-instating the Northern refinery as far as I am aware are budgeted for, although I might be wrong there admittedly.

Personally as I have stated, I hope that they don't issue ANYMORE shares, but if we do it had better be for growth purposes.

The problem with the share issue is that the BOD said they wouldn't issue anymore and again, as I stated previously, I know why they did that last share issue and the benefits it will bring moving forward, but I would honestly have preferred a loan facility from an established bank as a means of facilitating the extra percentage points in the Zambian Copper Assets, than diluting, but the BOD chose to dilute and we either accept that choice from the BOD or we don't. It really is that simple at the end of the day.

The other question to ask yourself, is if you believe that they are going to issue a billion shares over the next few years, surely you should be selling out now and buying back in when the shares are issued or do you not feel that confident about your prediction?

A billion shares issued in the next few years, prey do tell what on? What is this company going to spend circa 160 million on in the next few years?

It is one thing to state that you see the company to issue a billion shares but it is another to state what you believe on what that money will be spent on.

Personally as I have stated, I hope that they don't issue ANYMORE shares, but if we do it had better be for growth purposes.

The problem with the share issue is that the BOD said they wouldn't issue anymore and again, as I stated previously, I know why they did that last share issue and the benefits it will bring moving forward, but I would honestly have preferred a loan facility from an established bank as a means of facilitati

Scott,

Ideally we don't want ANYMORE shares being issued, as 2.5 billion shares is alot for some people, but on the flip side, if you look at Lloyds Banking Group, they have over 71 BILLION shares in issue, therefore in that context 2.5 Billion shares doesn't seem a lot, does it?

The most important consideration is Market Cap but people tend to ignore that aspect and concentrate on share price and to be honest the number of shares a company has issued, shouldn't even be an issue, IF the company is growing, because eventually the market cap and therefore the share price will catch up, but if they are issuing shares and not growing then THAT is a massive problem for the holding shareholders

Here's an example for you:

Hypothetically, we produce 31,000 tons of Copper right now and we sell that at a price of 9k a ton and it costs us 5k to produce a ton, therefore we make 4k a ton as profit and let's pretend for the ease of this example that we own all the Zambian copper assets 100% and we get all the profit that we get the on some of the copper. (Whereas in reality we make our percentage in profit in the terms of the improved contract that the shares where issued against.)

So 31,000 tons x $4,000 = $124 million dollars in profit. Even with a P/E of say 8, which is ridiculously cheap for a 'mining company', the copper alone takes us to a Billion pound company, and with 2.5 billion shares in issue and hopefully no more shares issued, that on the copper side alone with a low p/e gives us holders a supposed share price of 40p a share and that doesn't even include the PGMs, Chrome, Cobalt and all the other metals.

And the good news is that WE are a growing company and whilst this growth in Zambia, Cyprus and hopefully other jurisdictions too is going on, we are going to be producing our 50k ounces of PGMs and Hundreds of Thousands, if not Millions of tons of Chrome a year too.

And yes whilst I grant that I have taken a few liberties with the percentages of profits from the copper I am just using it as an example for why the BOD issued shares to fund the increased the amount of profit percentage Jubilee gets.

Personally I am hoping for no more share issues, expansion to Cyprus with a profit share heavily leaning toward Jubilee getti g the vast majority of profit, our continued growth in Zambia and not just more copper and cobalt, but in other metals too and hopefully in the future linking up with a major mining company or government to process their spoil and/or ROM in a profit share business, before being bought out eventually for the IP by said major mining company or government for a very sizeable chunk of change.

As for your idea to buy a Billion shares, where are they going to get the 160 million pounds to buy the Billion shares from?

Scott,

Your maths fell apart as soon as you said what if they 27 fold the current share issue, because:

1: What evidence do you have that they will issue 62.5 billion shares in the future?
2: This company is a FAR and away different company to the one that was around when we had 92 million share in issue, as we had Tjate and Conroast and no producing assets and now we have multiple producing assets across currently 2 jurisdictions and a third on its way.

Yes, I will hold the board to task on here for the broken promise on the issuing of shares and whilst I get the why it was done for a good reason of increasing the percentages of the Zambian assets, it is still a broken promise and DOES erode trust in the BOD's statements and words, but I honestly don't believe that the BOD will issue 27 fold shares unless they are buying a multi- billion pounds company that has hit the tails, which won't happen and even then I would welcome that, because if we can make money hand over fist from spoil/waste, what could we make from a massive mine ROM?

https://www.mining.com/web/big-miners-reconsider-congo-zambia-risks-as-copper-price-surges/

It looks like we are ahead of the curve here and the fact that we are the choice for basically the government to process tailings and hopefully to ROM will stand us in good stead.

Case in point Happydays43 and no I am not including costs here and it is literally fag packet maths, but 10,000 tons of Copper at a profit of $4,200 a ton at Roan with 100% is easy to work out.

10,000 x $4,200 = $42,000,000 or at current exchange rates £30,868,735.80.

So now the toughie, as Mufulira Tailings Project is 97% to Jubilee and The Elephant is 80.75% to Jubilee and the breakdown is completely unknown and no I am not including Cobalt, but with the approximated $4,200 profit that gives $4,074 for Mufulira Tailings Project and $3,391.50 for the Elephant for each ton.

Either way the prospective 25,000 even earning the full $4,200 at 25,000 tons gives a profit of $105,000,000.

So unless you are adding all the amount in for the revenue we aren't at the 200 million dollars anyway.

Happydays43,

No where does it say on that Slater's bit that Jubilee will earn £200 million dollars. I know that, because here is the section in question:

Jubilee Metals has astonished investors with its explosive rise in the last two years. During the half year it rose another +57% and contributed +1.49%. Profits have been entirely dependent on its South African operations which refine chrome ore for a modest margin but also keep the platinum group metals extracted from the circuit. The rhodium price rose 400% between June 2020 and March 2021. By the end of May 2021 it had given back about 20% and the downtrend seems to be continuing. The trigger for the price surge has been attributed to tougher emissions standards for trucks in China. This year the picture changes as the company ramps up production of copper and other metals in its Zambian operations. Here it owns the tailings from old mines and it believes its cost per tonne will be $4,200. It is targeting output of 25,000 tonnes per year within four years. If rhodium is an emissions play, then copper reflects surging demand from electric motors and electronics in general. The company reported £19.3 million profit after tax in the half year to December 2020. Impressive but
modest compared to the potential from the copper tailings.

Yes it kind of insinuates that there will be 200 million dollars profit, but if you look at the following section of the proposed placing and Acquisitions RNS from 15th of September, it states the following:

Jubilee's beneficial interest in Project Roan has been increased to 100% (previously 80%), three months prior to the expected commissioning of the targeted 10 000 tonnes per annum copper project during November 2021. This increases Jubilee's interest across the integrated Southern Refining Project to 100%

· Jubilee's beneficial interest in the copper and cobalt rich TD52 as part of the larger 114 million tonnes Project Elephant, is increased to 80.75% (previously 57.75%)

· Jubilee's beneficial interest in the Mufulira Tailings Project is increased to 97%. The Mufulira Project, which is expected to hold similar characteristics to Project Elephant, is strategically located near the processing facilities targeted for Project Elephant.

So YES we will get 100% of Roan, but until we know the breakdown of the way we are processing the Project Elephant and the Mufulira Tailings Project, we may NOT be fully at the 200 million dollars mark.

Tiverton,

I completely agree with your assessment there. People moaning about selling shares because the share price is sliding down on the fact that there is no news coming out. I bet these same people don't moan on a rise without news, would they?

I have said this a few times now and I will continue here, by calling out bull5hit where I see it and there are those complaining almost daily about lack of news or that others with far more money invested than us have more access to more information than us and a reduction in share price because of said lack of news, well boo fricking hoo.

I am invested in this company and will be for as long as they let me and that is my choice, but whether it goes up, down or bust, I invested based on the information available to me and I will continue buying as and when I can do, if the information that I have available to me backs a buy. You might have heard of a thing called supposition and by this I mean that with Slater's ADDING to their holding in Jubilee, then they think that they will make money here and probably a lot of it. Now if they were selling out completely, then YES, it is a sign too.

The way I look at it, is that this share price is an opportunity because I can buy shares for less than Slater's who have access to the LC and CB and they have far better people at assessing a company than any of us and personally I don't care if I don't buy the bottom of a dip, because I think that this company will be in the FTSE 250, in a few years, but if it doesn't make it and it goes bust then, I paid my money and took my chance and it is that simple.

Let's face it, the stock market is just the biggest casino in the world and sometimes you are spectacularly up, sometimes you are spectacularly down, but that is the chance you take investing in a company that is on the stock market. Basically, all you should do is gamble with what you can afford to lose and if you can't afford to lose it, then don't gamble it on a chance and complain about it whilst you lose money.

For what it is worth, here are my thoughts:

The Mopani deal is a real game changer for me, but the one thing that WE NEED TO SEE and the broker note alluded to this too, is the breakdown of costs for the products and what, if any copper/copper concentrate we sell to the government is priced at, etc. Once that information is known and we know the rate of tons per month, etc, the market will have to correct to a more reasonable price.

Cyprus, where I currently am, is going to be good for us, as a good bit of copper/gold recovery from waste will prove that the process we have CAN work for any metal and that will probably start the process of someone, much larger, buying us out.

South Africa will keep chugging away in the background, which is the bread and butter for the entire operation, as this stability gives us the ability to go for more and more deals, hopefully without ANYMORE dilution, unless the deal is, for example, to buy all the spare refineries and all the copper tailings in Zambia and we control the job lot and can run at whatever we like for as long as we like, then yes I can say that dilution is acceptable to me, but it has to be mind blowing for me to thing it is a good thing and before anyone says, trust the board or sell up on move on. Whether I trust the board or not, is NOT dependent on my belief that this company will help me provide for my family and the next person that disagrees or says to other investors with a different viewpoint to them, that they should sell up then or trust the board completely will get both barrels as a spirited debate SHOULD always have opposing views, as that way information is sought to prove or disprove people's views and that is great for all of us, as an open minded approach to investing is key. As evidence of this, I went to an investors night a couple of years ago for a small AIM company who at the time, weren't producing ALOT of Tungsten in Spain and unfortunately still aren't and I listened to the CEO give everyone the usual speil and afterwards all the hangers on back clapped and cheered him, but I got talking to another investor, he was a big investor in AIM companies at the time and the CEO so badly wanted him on board as an investor, but the guy was asking difficult questions of the CEO, such as recovery rates, etc. It turned out the big investor had done his research and he stayed out of the company, the company spiked and after talking to him, I made the decision to sell out when I could and I did sell out on a spike, making a few quid in the process, where as the back slappers and cheerleaders are probably sat on quite a loss at the moment, as the recovery rates are REALLY low, but improving slowly.

Moral of the story, be prepared to ask the difficult questions and you might avoid making a mistake.

And no I am not saying that the investors here are on to a loser, but sometimes other people see things we don't see or don't want to see and having that pointed out, CAN onl

I have just bought 208.57 quid worth at a price of 15.88p a share, which is magnificent, as it is below the price that the placing was at and to be fair that is part of the reason that the share price has dropped, albeit not as low as others, but it definitely hasn't helped out.

I DO understand the reason for the placing, it was to fluff out the bank sheet, expedite the copper /cobalt side of the business and increase the stakes percentage in the tailings that we have sources, to where we get all or very near to most of the profits. All those are pros for the placing, however on the con side of the placing, there was the statement that Jubilee WOULDN'T be diluting again, as they had a mixture of money in the bank and project finance/debt moving forward and yet they diluted again, resulting in Leon breaking his promise not to dilute, opportune or not.

Yes, I know some people will see only the positive nature of it and there will be those who only see the negative side of it. I can see both sides of the coin in the terms of expediting the copper/cobalt side of things whilst prices are high and expecting to climb higher, but a broken promise is still a broken promise.

In time, I hope that we we will laugh at these prices, saying the dividends that we receive are more than I paid each for my shares and I do feel that we WILL get to dividends and to the FTSE 250, before being bought out at multiples of this prices, as it will just be too disruptive to the mining industry, as the liabilities that cost them hundreds of millions a year can be turned into money, by reducing their liability costs and generating income for what most consider a waste product. That last bit is only my opinion, but these big mining companies HAVE to improve the ESG, by tidy up the waste of yesteryear and prevent tailings dams slipping and killing people aka. VALE in Brazil.

I do feel that we are at the forefront of this new world and hope to make some serious capital here to pay off chunks or all of my mortgage and I do think that has a VERY GOOD possibility of happening.

Mikie,

So if both assets are worth the same and both cost the same amount in total costs to get to the point of sale, there is no difference is there? That is what I am alluding too. Yes, potentially both Tjate and the 115 million tons of tailing could have similar return of outlay per unit overall, the good points about the above ground tailings positions is that the unknown is removed and the start up is cheaper, but the grades are much lower and require more processing to extract value, raising overall costs. The plus point of Tjate is the grades are exceptional and potentially, if we wanted to process our our ROM, for little to no cost we could go from the next-door Twickenham mine and bring the ROM up through Twickenham, via a JV with the current owners of the mine and then we'd have ROM to process, with exceptional grades of chrome and PGM's.

I also didn't say it was a game changer, I said the following:

As for highlighting Cobalt being a game changer, that is fair, but basically you are insinuating is that the 115 million tons of Copper and Cobalt tailings is worth near 5 BILLION dollars of Net Asset Value, when it has to be processed, refined, etc or a long period of time and the aforementioned costs aren't available for the Cobalt side either.

It was you that said it was a game changer, I just said that it was fair for you to call it a game changer in your opinion but not to insinuate that the copper and cobalt in those tailings were worth a near 5 billion dollar valuation.

Regardless of anything else I think that we can agree the Zambian assets are instrumental in Jubilee achieving a FTSE 250 position, but where we agree to disagree is the point of ascribing value to an asset without the costs to concentrate, process and refine, etc being known at least to us PI's at this time.

So what you are saying is that Tjate and the 115 million tons of tailings can't be compared, despite being around the same asset value, because one is underground and one is at surface? If you can't see how ridiculous that statement is, then there really is no point trying to have a reasoned debate with you, is there? I state this, because you either understand Net Asset Value or you don't. To highlight the point further, Tjate was worth in excess of 2 Billion Pounds a number of years ago and that was only based on 2 out of the 3 farms, so the NET ASSET VALUE probably isn't that far off your predicted Net Asset Value of the 115 million tons of Tailings. The downside to Tjate is that it will cost a billion pounds to get to the PGM's, but say for example, what happens if it costs 46,000 dollars to manufacture a ton of Cobalt? Are they comparable now?

As for highlighting Cobalt being a game changer, that is fair, but basically you are insinuating is that the 115 million tons of Copper and Cobalt tailings is worth near 5 BILLION dollars of Net Asset Value, when it has to be processed, refined, etc or a long period of time and the aforementioned costs aren't available for the Cobalt side either.

Sumo skier,

My point is that there is a lot that we don't know and yet some of these posts are treated as gospel. We don't know what the retrieval rate post concentration stage is, we don't know the levels that the concentration will go to BEFORE the refinery. We don't know pre-concentration throughput, we don't know, post-concentration levels, etc.

At best, we can guess BUT it should be stated that all this is guess work at the moment, as at best our guesses here are ill-educated, because we DON'T know the important stuff right now.

Spread over how many years mate? I am long here too, but like I hinted at earlier on. The value is only realised on sale. If, for example, it takes 40 years to realise the 1.4 Billion Dollars that you quote, that is only 35 million dollars a year or at current conversion rates 25472146.00 pounds, which is a nice addition to the copper and will help get us to the FTSE 250 and potentially, if we keep expanding, in the future to the FTSE 100, but until we know the retrieval rate and throughput per month, price on sale, costs to retrieve the Cobalt, etc, there is little point speculating in the asset value. For example if the cost to retrieve the Cobalt is 40,000 dollars per ton, that means that we go from 1.4 Billion dollars to a little over 400 million and that amount is spread over however long it takes to churn through the 115 million tailings dam.

It can't just be me that sees this though, can it?

And before anyone says it. Yes it might be worth that much, but Tjate is worth a similar amount, if not more in these times, but no one is buying us out for it. We have, according to some fag packet maths, well over 5 billion dollars in those two efforts alone in a company that is worth less than 400 million pounds. If that doesn't tell you what you need to know right there, nothing will and yes I DO hold shares here, just trying to be realistic with valuations. We will get there but let's do it properly.

Mikie,

I know that what you have put is a bit of fag packet maths, but we do need to be realist even with that, as you predict 2.7 billion dollars for the Cobalt, but you have predicted that we manage to retrieve 100% of the Cobalt and that will be a completely unachievable goal, at best, I hope for 50-60% and yes it still leaves a good margin for what is a secondary material, but there is no guarantee that the price of Cobalt will stay at 47,000 or even in the current range of 53k dollars per tonne.

If you are going to put fag packet maths down try to temper them with a hint of realism, because if the value WAS actually 2.7 BILLION Dollars, we would literally see world leading mining companies turning their spoil into a veritable gold mine of profit.

Just seen this and it is a good read, although many will likely see it as a post in a negative light, whereas I see it as more level playing information on a topic is better than one sided information on a topic.

https://www.mining.com/web/copper-is-so-pricey-now-that-ac-manufacturers-are-switching-to-aluminum/

Here is a link for an article that states about the tax for chromium exports that will weigh on our profits. Additionally, the power de-regulation will mean that companies will start to produce their own power and potentially will sell the extra to the grid, like we used to do at Middelburg. I wonder if we can get Middelburg back to produce power, make our own Ferro-Alloys (To avoid the Chromium Export Tax) again and smelt our own PGM's.

https://www.mining.com/glencore-merafe-chrome-venture-expected-to-benefit-from-energy-deregulation-in-south-africa/

China's buying is slowing down and the fabled infrastructure acts/bills, the US aside are trundling along and even the US bill isn't finalised yet. I can see the stocks being built up by China and the metal brokers as a way to make money when governments actually START their infrastructure spending.

Additionally the news of the Dilokong Chrome and PGM Court case without news to state that there is a problem, is going to effect the shareholder sentiment too.

The stock markets are volatile at the moment too and being honest, until we get clarity on a number of subjects, such as the profit split for the copper, etc, it will probably continue sliding with an occasional spike for the traders in there too.