Member Info for Kaiser_B

Also we only ever used 4% in terms of our gas reliance from Russia. That has been made up by buying extra Qatari/Iranian gas and transporting that here, but what happens if even one of those ships is delayed/holed or worse falls victim to piracy, which is why forces/allies in the military world might or might not guard those ship.

Energy prices won't lower, at the moment, due in part to the sanctions and reliance on Russia's gas and oil and governments trying to locate other supplies to appease the sensibilities of their denizens, those countries like India and China who don't really care about looking too bad in the international standing are reaping the benefits of this and their economies will grow this year, especially the India economy

Also once again, you like Dorfan, haven't addressed the elephant in the room and that elephant is how to expand in an environment that is rough, in the short-term, like we currently have?

If you re-read my first message in it's entirety, you will see that I believe that Jubilee will change the world, but how we do that doesn't mean as much as how quickly we do it, because the how we do our business IS known, the uncertainty is whether or not we give up first mover/world lead and go off free cash flow or one of the other options.

Basscadet,

Yes, you are right, the EU can't make Ukraine cede land, but you missed my point, so i shall explain it better or at least in a way easier to understand.

The EU knows that Ukraine want to join the EU, the EU wants the war to end sooner, rather than later, so they 'might' say to Ukraine, cede the land that Russia already has, end the war and we'll expedite your entry to the EU. If, however, you don't cede the land, we can't allow you to join the EU, as it runs the risk of dragging the EU into a war or words to that effect.

Now Ukraine has a choice, cede the land and give Russia what it wants and what it currentky holds and Ukraine will eventually get what it wants in terms of both NATO and EU membership or drag out a war, by not giving up it's own land, support from the EU will dwindle, due on part to recession and lack of interest and they won't get into the EU or NATO for tears, if at all.

Now, do you see my point?

Continues from previous message.

Land and if they are prepared to sacrifice another country, on the altar as a sacrifical lamb, whom wants to join the EU, just to protect the EU, what would they do to others not involved. The EU will give Ukraine an ultimatum in the short/mid term, cede the land to Russia, stop the war, join the EU and potentially NATO and we'll save you if the big bad bear comes for you again. Thus offer will be made in desperation by Germany and France as both countries need to avoid recession and look positive in the eyes of the world, to help the embattled EU from the hole it finds itself in, with it's reliance on Russia. Which in itself feeds the snake, as all Putin has to do is say, we will cut off your oil and gas and Germany and France will tuck tail and play nice to save themselves.

Also you mention the long term, but you haven't mention HOW we will fund our long term projects to fruition right now, which means that you either have blinkers on OR you just want to potentially Emu it until something happens and then argue whatever happens is the best case that Jubilee could achieve right now, but it is fine as we'll expand in an environment that might not be the right environment for what we want to achieve.

I am here long and strong, BUT I express all opinions and for you to say that I am a trader, despite me posting all evidence to the contrary on MULTIPLE occasions states that you don't want anyone to post the negative, only the positive.

Some questions for you: I have already took the liberty of answering them for you, but here goes.

Is it true metal prices ARE being bashed right now? Yes it is.

Is it true that interest rates ARE rising right now? Yes it is.

If we, as a company, want to expand in a time of rising costs for EVERYTHING, do we need to do one of those 3 things I mentioned. Unfortunately YES!

You might not like abit of upsetting or unnerving news, but guess what, you have to take the rough with the smooth and right now, it IS rough out there. The good news for us, is the expansion parts (Inyoni and Roan ) that we have committed to ARE built and commissioned or commissioning. The expansion that we have decided to come isn't committed to just yet (Northern Xambia copper strategy), but will happen. However, as I posted, how will it happen? Fast with loans/finance and/or dilution or slow based of free cash flow which IS being squeezed right now. This squeeze is happening whether you like it or not and definitely whether it is posted on here or not.

People on here keep going, well we are holding up well, we are looking at massive returns in the 6 months results and we are going to be looking good forthis 6 months, but we also MUST see the headwinds that ARE coming our way.

I predicted a downturn in the PGM market as India and China, which ARE 2 of the biggest markets for PGM's will be buying at a steep discount direct from Russia and either building up their stocks or selling to the market and further reducing the price they buy at and gaining money/free cash in a time when most economies aren't flush with free cash in this post covid environment. Economies now are in an attritional war of survival and most countries don't have the funds/good grace in the international community to withstand a long and attritionl economic war.

In essence, with the revenues that Russia makes from oil and gas alone to those 2 forementioned countries and Europe, the Ukraine war will run on for years, further extending a recession that will in part ruin Western economies. Russia makes a billion dollars a day selling the oil and gas that Europe needs and because Europe won't stop that, due to their own risk of recession, it takes me back to, what people and countries will do to ensure that they survive, even at the expense of others. An example of this, is Europe destroying Ukraine and suggesting giving up land to bring about an end to the war, so that business can resume as it was, when nothing is as it was, because now EVERYTHING has changed. The question you should ask yourself with this last point is, would the EU cede land to Russia to stop a war? They might do that, but they definitely would if it is someone else's, no EU members

So copper is around 18 month lows right now at about 8,000 dollars a ton. Tin has dropped 21% in a week or so and metal prices across the board, gold aside are getting hammered, but no one here is talking about it at all. Why is that?

I know why! It doesn't fit into some people's view of where the company will be in the short and medium term and by that I generally mean traders, the ones that buy pre-news on the hope of a rise into an RNS for the results, this is also why I like the 6 month release of results, there is less volatility because people aren't trading the peaks and troughs, which might also be why we have held up reasonably well when compared to other junior miners. I still think that this company is a brilliant one and one that potentially could change the world, but to do it, we need either need 1 of the following:
1. Investment from majors which all the stocks/tails/waste we will ever need and the funds to enable us to build concentrators/central hubs or funds linked to ESG/Metals.
2. We slow the rate of growth, as rather than diluting or getting a loan at a higher rate, we use free cash flow to expand. This means that potentially we lose our advantage of being first mover in Zambia/Cyprus.
Or 3. Dilute to raise funds to grow the company.

1 and 3 are basically the same. 1 might come with less shares issued and a loan element, but in all likelihood, in this present climate of metal price dropping, it could happen.

2, is the one, I personally like the least, but battening the hatches and doing what we do well with what we have right now and building up free cash flow to slowly grow the business, is the one that most people on this board would like to see, as there'd be no more dilution and whilst growth would be occurring, it would be greatly slowed at the moment.

All options are not ideal, but we have proved with the Jubilee way, that we can make money out of nothing but waste and we are literally in the lowest percentile quarter for the metals we produce across the board, so we should be alright moving forward, but there is going to be ALOT of assets/companies that become depressed and throw the dilution cannon around in the near and short term and I think that the market is literally pricing that in right now, which again means those with free cash or access to loans/funds, etc will be alright, but we may just be about to lose a lot of juniors who are just about to get mining or are exploring and don't have that access yet.

They can offer me 1.50 a share and then I might consider it.

Gotreal,

That IS point. If any company IS paying a dividend they are either at the point where they really are generating more cash than they know what to do with and have no plans to takeover or expand or they have reached steady state and aren't growing and therefore have more money than they know what to do with.

Either way, growing stops as an equilibrium has been reached and the free cash that could go to expand the business is returned to investors slowing or stopping growth entirely.

TG5, you are right with chrome levels with regard to a traditional smelter. What companies with smelters were traditionally doing is blending the Meransky and UG2 into one effort and therefore artificially lowering the chrome levels from the UG2. Conroast got around this problem as it was able to burn hot enough that effectively reduce the chromium to negligible levels, meaning it can process solely UG2 without the need for blending in the Merensky and with the Merensky becoming depleted across the full length of the BIC, Conroast with it's smaller and more efficient smelters, rather than the traditional 6 in line smelters that ARE used, made perfect sense. The problem was that Conroast was designed for small scale activities and would have needed massive expenditure to scale it up to the production levels we currently are at. As such the companies with smelters were able to keep blend the Merensky and UG2 layers and able to keep producing PGM's without losing what they had in terms of production levels and therefore no change and extra expenditure required.

What in effect has happened is we are using the Conroast formula to effectively remove ALL the chrome, meaning that UG2 ROM and Tails becomes more like a traditional Merensky effort, but without the rest of the minerals that make up the Merensky reef. Therefore any company can use our concentrate to in effect blend down their own UG2 ROM, meaning Conroast still isn't needed in smelting, but is used in the pre-smelting phase by us. Potentially if Tharisa get our levels of recovery, it means whomever or which ever companies smelts ours and Tharisa's concentrate are in effect able to smelt more UG2 than they would have even able to process originally, which is good for all concerned.

Tharisa's project Vulcan is targeting ultra-fine chrome the same as us, so that is by the by. They have in essence built a bigger plant to do the same thing as our Inyoni plant and they have spent far more money on it than we spent on the full Inyoni refurbishment and with it being over budget and delayed by at least a year, probably closer to 18 months, they will have lost ALOT of revenue and spent extra on transport and chrome penalty costs. They aim to retrieve 80+% of the chrome up from 62% and in doing so they hope to produce an extra 200,000 tonnes a year of chrome product.

So in essence, the difference between ours and Tharisa is scale and throughput, but it seems likely that with ROM and not tailings, we will get a far better retrieval rate and we are pushing 1.2 million tonnes without having a mine and associated costs in terms of manpower, etc.

Personally I think that the potential for Tharisa, Sylvania and us to merge into one big company is huge, even if 2 of the 3 merge, the consolidation would be immense. Personally I can see us and Tharisa as Billion pound companies. Sylvania I am not so sure about. The dividend cuts into to their expansion plans and if you are paying a dividend as a company, you generally AREN'T expanding, as paying a dividend in smaller companies stops growth.

Yep, Jonah is right. If we get a high chromium particles sent to a smelter, you pay a chrome penalty fee, as chromium ruins a traditional smelter, as it doesn't go high enough to burn off the chromium and it turns in to a high chrome **** that tends to stick to the sides of the smelter and can cause uneven temperatures and even cause blow outs and loss of control of the stag through an inadvertent spillage of the molten ****.

Because Jubilee takes all the fine chrome out that previously would have caused the chromium penalty fee and turned it into a saleable product, and because of this, it is my understanding that we have never paid the Chromium penalty since we got Inyoni running with the fine Chrome processing part. So we benefit threefold from the fine chrome processing part.

1. We generate EXTRA chromium we can sell.
2. We don't pay a chromium penalty fee and lastly and most importantly
3. By reducing the amount if chromium in the PGM concentrate, we literally are saving money in transport and processing costs , as we are reducing the amount of material that requires transport and processing to a near minimum by the owner of the smelter.

I have said this multiple times on here that the fine chrome processing part is absolutely brilliant and it needs going to all other processing hubs to further refine and reduce our transport and processing costs to and at inyoni.

Troajan, do you really think MM will release his chairmanship to another? I wish he would, but he won't.

Gotreal, if those posts are backed up with facts, then it is part and parcel of a free board. If I post thoughts or opinions, I state as much so that I am clear on the matter. Yes, I have posted what could be construed as negative or BOD bashing on here, especially in the aftermath of paying off all historic debt, BUT sometimes it pays to listen to a negative post and so what if Homey is posting disparaging and snipey comments. He is not as bad as another recent poster and I do feel on occasion that Homey has a point with his comments, not the supposed insulting or snipey ones, but if he wants to bash his investment that is his choice and there is nothing you or anyone else can do about it because, unless you uses ****** language, as a certain aforementioned poster did, it is a free speech board and whilst you might find it annoying, he is entitled to his point of view and to express it accordingly.

Yep Troajan,

I couldn't and can't understand that either, especially with Jubilee able to extract such wealth from tailings let alone ROM.

I was looking to get back in to them once the problems ARE sorted out, but I really do worry about the Blackrock Loan being a massive drag on the company.

Whatever your opinion on the company, be it good or bad, we are all here to make money, some will do it by trading, some by holding long and possibly even averaging up to hold more, whatever the game, we are all here to make money. I don't care if people have a negative opinion of Jubilee, so long as they back it up with facts. Homey IS entitled to his opinion and on some points he is right. We were promised no more dilution, but we got more dilution. Yes, it cleared all the historic debt and yes it was known about debt, so technically no more NEW shares were issues, but it was still a dilution after no more dilution was supposed to happen and YES, we will be in a better place once we know WHO is taking over as Chairman, personally I hope it is a big name, but we shall see.

Additionally I agree with most of the rest of you. I think that we are on the cusp of becoming a billion+ pound company in short order and that this industry that we have in effect made our own will become one worth tens of billion pounds a year, and we might even see our share price towards a pound and over, without a consolidation, if we stay a company that doesn't get bought out for our tech and expertise.

However, regardless of what people say about the company, both good and bad, let's try to keep it civil this board is a good board, now a certain someone has left it alone and we should welcome ALL opinions because all opinions are valid.

If you want proof I went to an AGM of a little AIM company who mine tungsten in Spain. I listened to the Chairman and was throughly enthused by the sales pitch. Later on, I got chatting with a REALLY rich guy who was looking to invest in the company and the chairman was keen to have him on board, so the chairman wandered over and they began chatting and the rich guy was asking REALLY probing questions, such as what happens if this and what happens if that. It was stuff that I, honestly hadn't thought of, such as the weather and flooding, etc. We'd done a shed load of research and found out that flooding occurred on occasion. The chairman seemed non plussed by these questions and just said everything had a plan without really elaborating. Anyway, it rranspired that there was a lot of rain and the water dam flooded and prevented the company getting to the good ROM for a long time, efficiencies were terrible, etc and they didn't make anywhere near the levels they proposed they'd make. Luckily I had sold out of the company on a bit of a spike and made a bit of money, but not a whole lot for the amount of time I held those shares. The company in question is now on a suspension, so YES, both positive and negative posts and opinions are healthy for a company, so long as they are backed up by facts rather than just a negative effort trying to make something happen for your own gain.

Yep Jonah, it would be quite ironic if we went back to Smokey Hills after all this time, wouldn't it? In all honesty, it was the thing that brought me to Jubilee in the first place and been here ever since and yes that does include the Middleburg debarcle when we were looking potentially at selling power to the ESKOM, as for the due diligence, it would be nice to buy the entire of the Sail Group and get the mines and infrastructure outright, if cheap enough. We can then sell the mines to someone else and have them potentially mine it for us, under the proviso that the ROM and spoil goes through the Jubilee enhanced processing plant and we get the PGM material for ourselves. I only say this, as it means that we have more supplies to our processing plants on both limbs, as they have 2 mines on the Western Limb and one on the Eastern Limb and prevents us losing out on more supplies moving forward. Yes it will be a liability in terms of the balance sheet, but diversity of supply is needed for further expansion in SA. As for the transport of the sulphuric acid, I guess it depends on the concentration that we can achieve from the smelter and what we can transport it at and the level required for the 300 dollars per tonne. Say for example, if we can get 20% concentration straight off the bat and the 300 dollars a tonne is at 20% concentration, then it would make sense, if it was 20% and required a 100% concentration, then we'd have to refine it further and that might not be cost effective, but imagine if we got 20% concentration and only 5% concentration for it to make the copper sulphate and we could concentrate it to 100% for transport and then dilute it back to 5%, then it probably would make massive sense, the unknowns are the price that the sulphuric acid concentrate needs to be at for the 300 dollars a tonne or for making the copper sulphate or the costs for concentration for transport and transportation costs.

First off, I have been looking for care and maintenance sites with processing for Chrome over on the Eastern Limb for a while now and it wouldn't surprise me if we get the processing infrastructure at Smokey Hills mine, which has been under care and maintenance since about 2016. Those of us that have been here a long time will remember the proposed takeover of PLA, which at the time owned the Smokey Hills mine and infrastructure. The takeover RNS was in February 2013 and the cancellation of the takeover was in March 2014. Since then the mine has operated for a few months at a time by various entities as is currently owned by The Sail Group, but as far as I can see, it hasn't produced anything since 2016, which is a long time to be under care and maintenance and would be a massive liability on the Sail Group's balance sheet. It would be a brownfield site, so not adding further infrastructure to a greenfield site and if the Sail Group ever got the Smokey Hills mine or their assets run through a Jubilee Metals processing hub, they would be far better off and with them being a Chrome producer only, the synergistic nature of both businesses would be met.

Also and bear with me on this one, why don't we based on the Eastern Limb expansion for a further 20,000 ounces of PGM material make a small conroast smelter? A by-product of a conroast smelter is sulphuric acid, which is currently trading at 300 dollars a tonne, so we can either transport it to Sable or we can sell it to the market. I know that people will say, 44,000 ounces isn't enough PGM material to allow a smelter to be made, but why can't we make a conroast smelter and smelt our own PGM material and ANY excess smelting time can either be to smelt our own ferroalloys for sale to the market OR to take on other companies PGM material at a slightly discounted rate to the majors and produce even more PGM's for the market. With the Sulphuric acid by-product being sold or utilised for our own need, we would be producing little to no waste at all and we'd maximise the profits available to Jubilee and also we'd be maximising our ESG creditials.

Anyone else have any thoughts on these two thoughts?

Gotreal, It will rise in the short term as the market has priced in the loss of ounces available to the market, but like I said, if China and India buy their Platinum and Palladium direct from China, why would they need to use the London Metals Exchange for the majority that they need? Making a supply glut or the Chinese buy and trade the Russian Platinum and Palladium on the LME. It also means that if China and India buy the Russian Platinum and Palladium direct, it means that not as much is bought eventually on LME and let's be right about it, LME makes the market, but it still is run by buyers and sellers and who's to say that the Platinum and Palladium that in all likelihood China nd India purchases at a very probable discount won't be sold back into the market making the Chinese and Indians a very large profit?

Yes in the short term it will rise, but who buys the vast majority of the available Platinum and Palladium? Answer. The Chinese and India. Who aren't affected by or agree with the sanctions placed on Russia?

I think that people are missing the point of the increased sanctions/tariffs on Russian Platinum and Palladium. It will hit Russia, as the London Metal Exchange IS the biggest mining exchange on the planet, but in all likelihood, China will profit immeasurably from it, as they will probably import all the Platinum and Palladium at discounted rates that the Russians can and will sell them and they will probably give the Russians the option of payment in either Dollars or Yuan. The Russians will ask for Dollars in exchange the Platinum and Palladium, as they will want to avoid debt repayment issues and depleting their own dollar reserves held in the country, because they need dollars to pay for pretty much EVERYTHING, from Debt repayment to bombs and bullets and everything else that they need to prolong the voilence in the Ukraine and do you think the Chinese are going to the full amount, when the Chinese are taking the product that Russia can't really sell elsewhere or do you think the Chinese are going to give them pence in the pound equivalent prices. I state this as the Chinese, who actively condemn the Western sanctions, will state to the Russians that they run the risk of falling fowl of the Western worlds sanctions, so they will ask for and receive a massive discount on the prices that they pay for it.

This will in term of having the knock on effect of actually reducing the price of Platinum and Palladium as the Chinese won't be buying as much from SA and surpluses will arise there

Cardo,

Spot on mate, from 29% to 0.86% is a VERY steep reduction in terms of shareholdings, especiallyif they are utilising the royaltyas a means or resurrecting BMR under a different company. Like I said, it looks like Colin Bird raised BMR fron the ashes and is using Jubilee to fund ANOTHER entry point on to AIM.