Member Info for Kabaa

Poker chips. I dealt with you on the 3rd Oct when you were posting similar nonsense. We're up 26% since then and slowly rising. If you had any money and put it where your mouth is, you'd have got it taken straight off you.

Go cry into your beer with dc007 and talk about conspiracy theories.

This has dropped from 44p last year. Many of us are taking advantage, no matter what short term news may come.

Duffy confident creditors will be fine. Bond doesn't need to be financed for 18 months. project 2022 well under way. Management have internal targets higher than 150-200mn fcf and they also have contingency plans for any potential further diamond weakness in the next 12 months.

I'll take that as a No!

I'm not sure if I'm allowed to write what was said on here?

Did anyone else listen in on this?

That's the spirit Duster!

People won't sell at these levels forever and if you're a big buyer who want's to pick up 1 or 2%+ of the company, you are gonna have a hard time getting the stock below 10p.

I think the big seller has gone and the shorters now have about 15m to buy back. They will have some real trouble doing that without causing a surge in the price imo.

I think Duffy is being extremely conservative, ready to outperform these targets and win back the confidence of the markets over the next 3 years before debt is refinanced. He is definitely not an idiot.

And diamond prices showing signs of stabilising. De Beers move to restrict supply in Q1 will have a significant effect on Q2 diamond prices.
We will be in 2020 in a few weeks and diamond prices set to surge over the coming years.
Our billion dollar assets will get significantly written up in value and this market cap will look utterly pathetic....

A few impatient will sell but I think we will be up by the end of the week, maybe even by midweek.

If Petra can hold out for another couple of years, they will significantly benefit from the diamond price surge analysts expect from 2020-2050.

With revenues of 500mn, any 10% increase in the diamond price will have 50mn fall to the bottom line. Over a 10 year period, just a 10% increase knocks off the whole debt.

As we expect diamond prices to go up a lot more than 10%, the future profits for this company are astronomical compared to what the market suggests (market cap £60m) -

I'd expect the journalists to cry about the debt and revenue and not see the bigger picture whatsoever but my view remains this will be a 10 figure company in the medium term.

Less than I thought too considering de beers revenue down 39%. Also only 1 tender so inventories are up $35m.

I can't see the sp doing much on these results but will slowly recover to a more sensible level over the next few weeks.

Q2 should be much better and H2 very significantly better.

Each one of your posts utter nonsense and all on pdl. What a saddo!

If you ever manage to get some money together, why not find a stock that you do think will go up and buy into that?, maybe post a bit of actual research on it, where you have skin in the game, you may actually learn a bit about investing and the company itself.

Just took a look at the Q1 report exactly 3 years ago (2016 Q1 report). We dropped 10% on this announcement then went up much more to £1.70 within 4 weeks.

Production 1.097m carats
Revenue $94.7m
Net Debt $464m

I doubt the figures will be wildly different from that tomorrow, the only difference is then the share price was over 2000% higher!

I think the sell off is a bit overdone now!!

I'm far more bullish long term than people on here. The upside is astronomical.

They had a 200m Ebitda in 2018.

This isn't some tiny little tinpot company that deserves an ebitda of 2-6, it has the 3rd biggest diamond resource in the world. Of 250mn carats. That is truly enormous.

Capex is expected to drop from now on along with FCF increasing in the future.

Diamond prices are expected to surge from 2020-2050. This will make the profits absolutely go through the roof in years to come. The asset value will increase and get written back up and more in the accounts.

Once a few of these positives get lined up, we will not be paying 7.25% interest on debt, which will fall straight to the bottom line in the ballpark of 50mn per year.

I very much doubt the largest shareholders would accept 30p in a takeover bid. The price has only been below 20p for a couple of months. Sure people buying in now get excited about this number but these people own 5-15% of the company each. They wouldn't accept it.

Considering these points above, the upside of this stock is pounds, not pence.

What we need to see now, is further headroom from creditors, waving of covenants for Feb/Aug tests in 2020 then the stock price will multiply. I think the market is overly worried about the debt and the short term diamond prices along with having a forced ii seller aggressively dump the stock, along with shorters jumping all over this causing an avalanche in the price.

This will all be reversed within months imo and the share price will go back into the 30's,40's and 50's by summer 2020.

They raised money with an ex-rights price of 56p last year. They have not diluted since then and have specifically told us they are not considering dilution to pay the debt. They don't need to. The company has not dissapointed since then by a factor of 90%!!!! It's doing fine and arguably well considering operational cashflow has become $70mn.

I do agree with it being the steal of the century. I do not personally care what the results will be on Monday, they will likely be boring. I will be holding for further news on the above and until the price goes to a far more sensible level which could take several weeks/months. Then I will top-slice and forget about the rest for a long-term hold of over a quid.

This won't go to 30p overnight but I bet it could do it within a few weeks/months of short-covering and general buying, director buying, broker note upgrades, creditors showing support, diamond finds, fcf generation etc.

People betting on the results of Monday are just gambling for 10-20% here or there which imo is not a good idea compared to buying and waiting for the price to go to a more sensible level.

Hi Steve, I think if we do go back to 6 or 7 it will be very short lived and just a knee jerk Sell off due to the profit showing down a bit. Diamond prices have been lower etc.

Dire was probably a strong word, operationally, they are making more than the entire market cap. Ebitda is almost 3 times the market cap!

We had a rights issue at the equivalent of 56p ex rights price just a year ago.

This company is ginormous. But it wouldn't surprise me if we get one or 2 more Sell offs to shun a few of the weaker holders out before we go up back into the teens/twenties.

I agree but I think admin would get more than 10p lol.

If we drop 10% monday, you can bet it'll be back up by the end of the week.

Am not selling a single share until this gets well into double digits.

I don't think the figures on Monday will be good either. I think they will be dire.

But the companys shares are way oversold and is worth triple what the market is suggesting in a firesale imo.

We could easily go back to 7p and straight to 20p during November.

Am here for the value at this price, not for the results Monday - that could well be volatile. I may not even look at the price next week lol.

But saying that, I very much doubt this will go below 5-6p ever. I think we've found the bottom for this.

Good results or bad, people will buy this for weeks now. I think the seller has cleared and fair value is between 16-32p.

Duffy bought at 22p just 4 months ago!

We had an RNS on the 30th July after the sp halved from 20p stating no reason for the sell off and that pdl had turned a corner with excellent operational results.

The NAV of the company is about 50p!

So i'm not personally excited it's gone over 8. A recovery to 20p would be quite standard for a company like this and this side of xmas.

We went from 20p to 10p in 7 days at the end of July.

I think a fairly quick recovery of that whole down move is warranted before the end of November.

Hopefully this is the turning point of the downtrend and we can have a few up weeks...

In other words, I don't think people are buying in because they expect Q1 numbers to be brilliant, they are buying in because the share price has dropped too far and we are trading at a fraction of the value of what is sensible.

As soon as whoever is selling is gone, we can re-rate to a more sensible level. The chart suggests to me a bounce is due soon and the down trend is finishing up with share price recovery to follow. The fundamentals suggest a multibag likely.

Colonel, the numbers on Monday are likely to be dreadful. Yes the blue diamond find will help q2 but the numbers are likely going to be not that impressive for another 12 months.

But the fact of the matter is, our NAV is many many times our market cap and we are grossly oversold as is.

Where is left for the share price to go? 5p? That is 40m cap which is about one tenth of our NAV.

This will bounce on a technical level imo in the next few days/weeks.

"90% of companies that fall 90% end up going to 0"

This statement in my experience is complete nonsense. I'd like to see a stat saying otherwise.

I have personally seen at least a 100 companies recover at least 100% (many several hundred percent) after falling 90%.

Many shares continue to fall but many, many more just get oversold and recover to being 80% down or 50% down or even recover fully and end up going way past their all time high.