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Gas prices are down around 6%

Interactive brokers allows it

https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/pricing/stock-yield-enhancement-program.php

Not sure why people over analyse Qube shorting this share. Firstly their short position is only worth a couple of million dollars. It’s nothing for a company that trade billions a day. Secondly most hedge funds short shares for hedging purposes not because they are betting for the share price to fall especially when the amount is so small. It could very well have an option on Pantheon betting the share price will go up substantially,and the shorting is just to hedge against the options incase share price falls and cover for the option fees.

But 600m is just the willow project and ConocoPhillips actually has over 7Billion of proven reserve ?

This is about the consultation of future EPL pricing mechanism after the current EPL ends in 2030. So unless the government has a sudden change of heart I don't think we will see changes to the existing EPL

If you watch the update last night on Youtube I believe Max mentioned that sometimes it take a few weeks for oil to flow so maybe that's why they let it run for 12 days.

The problem is both oil and gas prices have to drop below the EPL trigger price so it’s still a long way to go for gas to drop below 54 and stay at that price for 2 quarters. What would the HBR share price beat these low prices before EPL is removed.

In the Barclays's broker report it's mentioned that the company missed it's own estimate of 2024 FCF of 300m. It was mentioned in the previous trading update "Estimated full year 2024 free cash flow of c.$300 million, excluding shareholder distributions and one-off acquisition-related costs. ". But in the latest update it says 2024 FCF will be mostly neutral. Maybe this is one of the reasons market is disappointed with the result?

Also the 1 billion FCF is a based on the assumption of Brent oil prices of $80/bbl and European and UK natural gas prices of $13/mscf. A $5/bbl change in 2025 Brent oil prices or a $1/mscf change in 2025 European gas prices impacts free cash flow by c.$115 million. So we could easily lose most of the FCF if gas price go back to the low of the year and oil go down to $70?

Trading update on 29th Nov

https://www.harbourenergy.com/investors/financial-calendar/

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/HBR/uk-oil-and-gas-licensing-round-attracts-115-bids-ck7n0c9m8ab016h.html

Doesn’t look like the government will ever water down the the WFT with so many companies still willing to invest in the NS fields

The large UT volume is probably due to index funds selling/buying as FTSE index review is effective from Monday 19th

Banbury, there is an example calculation given at the bottom of the factsheet statement to show how they derived these numbers.

Not according to this

https://twitter.com/willhares/status/1586687090145755136?s=46&t=1bbvMmNDiCeDmxzbzFMTBw

Apologies Plebleens. Just realised the press release I saw last week was only indicative changes, and the actual changes will be based on today’s market cap. Looks like HBR will definitely get kicked out. Maybe that’s why the price hasn’t moved up. Then again the sp didn’t move up when it joined FTSE 100 either .

Next quarter’s FTSE 100 index rebalancing was already announced last week before Harbour sp started to drop. It will still be in the index for the next quarter.

Probably a delay in getting the changes updated as this is not a regular scheduled index rebalancing event. Makes more sense that HBR was added today that’s why yesterday’s after closing UT trade volume was huge with index funds buying to reflect the changes. The trade volume doesn’t seem very high today.

HBR Should already be included in FTSE 100 as of today. Ferguson is still trading on LSE. It’s just getting removed from FTSE 100 index because it’s now dual listed in the US.

Not sure what your problem is. I’m trying to let people know a piece of news that no one mentioned which might explain the recent price drop. if you have nothing better to say it’s best to keep quiet rather than filling the board with non stop pointless comments

looks like Harbour didn’t. make it to the FTSE 250 index this quarter announced on 28th May. Maybe that’s why the share price has been dropping if people that bought in earlier expecting HBR to be added decided to reduce their holdings after the announcement. Also since index funds are not forced to buy, the daily volume is low.