RE: Re: O jeremy corbyn23 Sep 2018 20:55
This is what I think "could" happen...
The EU continue to give us the worst possible proposition to sell to parliament so that it's defeated in a parliamentary vote. Jeremy Corbyn asks the speaker to call a vote of no confidence in the opposition... I have no idea if this will be successful or not. If it's not successful, then we are either forced into a Norway style deal keeping Freedom of Movement, and the other 4 Freedoms and paying the money for access to the single market. This will be sold to the electorate as a temporary transition deal, but we all know it won't me.
If the vote is successful and a General election is forced, the 1922 committee will launch a vote of no confidence in Theresa May, at this point all Tory's in marginal seats and probably all of the 80 strong ERG will vote against her... but they still might not have enough numbers.
If they successfully remove her, then the success of the Conservatives will be determined by who they elect as leader. If it's another remainer or one of the soft Brexit MP's... then there's a good chance Corbyn wins the election, not because he's more popular, but because the Tory's become less popular. This will happen due to enough people defecting from the Conservatives to UKIP.
UKIP will off course do poorly in the election, many take 1 or 2 seats at most if they manage any at all, but the number of voters they take will cost the Conservatives marginal seats.
Corbyn would be best to deny a second referendum, but force a general election because he too will alienate many Labour voters by selling his party as the second referendum party.
In fact through typing this I'm starting to think I actually don't have a clue... I think it's safe to say neither will have a majority. The only chance the Tory's have of taking a majority is to radically change, put a strong Brexiteer in charge and make it an us and them fight with the EU. Make them an enemy.
They'd be believed if they've been consistently for Brexit, and they'd be followed if they are seen as patriotic, nationalist and fighting the Enemy which is the EU.