Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
1) Assets are around 6 billion (compare it with a mcap of £650m).
2) Oil in the ground and future revenue from Ghana more than covers for our liabilities/debt at 70$ per barrel.
3) Exploration assets were depreciated around 1.3 billions (from 1.7 billions to 400 millions), that's was an exagerated depreciation (blame Les Wood), we sold Uganda for 575 millions, I see it as a 600-700 million loss before taxes, still we make around 300 millions in profits every year (discounting losses from exploration assets sold) our net debt is around 2.3 billions and if we develope Kenya we are well positioned (with government financing the oil pipe) to profit from an increase in oil prices.
I agree with paying debt off first. But they are always putting bondholders interests first and that pises the shiit out of me.
I don't see any fun in having a disloyal BoD. The Ugandan deal was a backstab to all of us, including yourself if you own any shares.
"I think we all know that off $68 Brent and the free cash flow it generates it should be in the 50's and probably in the mid 50's"
That's just your speculative figure at which you might be considering selling. Nothing to do with fundamentals.
And are hoping that the share price goes lower so they can buy again at a lower price. Thus they have no real selling power to push the share price down, now they can only post comments here to put downward pressure, don't let them play their tricks and gimmicks in your mind. Oil prices will rebound and the fall is overdone. Our debt is secured until 2025 and 2026. No reason to worry on short term oil fluctuations.
He is lying. He doesn't own any shares and he doesn't even know enough about Tullow for him to have a short interest.
He is just a naysayer ****ed because Enquest went South, which is none of our problem just ignore him, don't waste your breath with him.
Tax costs (+depreciation) around 500 millions, working capital costs around 50 millions (have to update it and adjust with the downsizing), financing costs around 200 millions, leasing costs around 160 millions, decomissioning costs around 100 millions (decomissioning costs for 2021 and 2022, delayed to 2022 with covid. From 2023 and forwards less than 20 millions per anum).
Free cash flow around 300-350 millions depending on oil price. In 5 years that's 1.5 billions (and financing costs go down drastically). And oil prices can and should go up.
Current hedges (Page 2):
https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/5016/2624/5196/Tullow_Oil_plc_-_2021_July_Trading_Statement__FINAL.pdf
Debt is 2.3 billions, we have capacity to produce for 11-13 years (TEN and Jubilee), yet the share has a market cap between 0.5 billions and and 1 billion, we just need to be patient, higher oil prices and Kenya are just an addition. Amusing, not necesarily for good, but amusing nonetheless that the market cap was as low as 100 million once.
@Bailiff
We will know when it's anounced, it's pointless to do predictions, it's speculatory.
https://es.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil
Have to see the small blip in a wider context. From the 7th March to 4th April brent went from 69 to 62 and then up again to 76 in June and July, brent is going to go up, the economy is still recovering, demand is expected to keep increasing, SA production has gone up
https://tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arabia/crude-oil-production#:~:text=Crude%20Oil%20Production%20in%20Saudi%20Arabia%20is%20expected%20to%20be,10000.00%20in%2012%20months%20time.
Any production raise will be gradual, brent is holding and is going to go higher. Now that it has gone down a little it is more likely it will go up again and more unlikely to continue to go down, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will withhold production if Brent goes lower than certain prices. The lower Brent oil price is the less likely it will go lower, and even at 60$ per barrel we are good for this year, next year oil demand and oil prices will be higher.
@Mellow
Not the first time you post bearish predictions and you err, again you have to back up your words with tangibles.
Trust nothing out of the mouths of shorters.
@BloodyRedBaron
What's wrong with you???