Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Where's this arbitration coming from for rent bills? That only refers to the amounts outstanding from lockowns.
It's a blanket extension as per my reading moving forward. Quotes from industry figures seem to confirm this:
"But Danielle Drummond-Brassington, a real estate disputes partner at law firm CMS, said: “Nothing is done here to address or recognise the financial pressure landlords are facing, or that there are tenants out there who can pay but have been taking advantage of the government’s measures.”
"
FT reporting commercial eviction ban to be extended to march 22!
https://www.ft.com/content/3e617ad0-b5c9-4288-846f-c81dca041262
Just to add trade is then to sell those interface systems to the exchanges which trade at p/e of 20 plus.
Thats what NEX did to CME and BGCP have done multiple times.
I agree Terry Smith would not have made that awful trade. "Phiz" was a disaster but had no experience in this field so not sure what they were doing going for him.
Issue for me is it is all going electronic. The exchanges will want to cut out the middle man and get the trades into their systems. Often the systems are not great and clunky, so there's a role for a broker system to act as an interface which matches the buyer and seller then directly inputs it into the exchange for clearing. So much cleaner for audit trail and compliance also.
I just don't see the value in having someone with 4 phones trying to do what a computer can long term.
Hence liquinet right move. Legacy business.. no buyer.
It's the price it is as well.. it is where it is.
There were 3 models.
One NEX, see the future go electronic find some mug to buy your voice.
Two, BGCP, shift from voice to electronic, take the hit and let brokers go and get he good ones to build your electronic platforms.
Three, be the mug that buys ICAPs voice to add to your own. Then realise you were wrong go electronic but then what are we doing with all these voice brokers? Redundancy isn't cheap.
Share price performance has reflected above with NEX and parts of BGC being bought out for premiums and TP sitting here at lows.
Trading now though at a level that makes it interesting.. holding at low average and will sell bgcp to this if it falls further. You mention PVM and oil being premium. Agree but that's all voice. Will sell here if an electronic oil platform becomes successful for oil. There's no reason why oil derivatives can't be traded electronic like bonds or equities.
Upcoming dividend relates to FY2021 period see accounts, even though paid in FY2022 so would count towards the 90% rule, although such a bad year not sure that's needed.
Another way of looking at it, if a REIT made 0 profit all year but on the last day of the financial year made 10m, they would declare a dividend of 9m three months later relating to that period and still stay inside REIT rules. If rules were had to be paid in the period as well then in such cases every reit would lose its status (you can't rush out a same day divi)
@adv11, On the us witholding tax on divis yes the agent pays over the the USA govnt. The rate is 30% standard however because of the double taxation treaty between the UK and USA, this gets reduced to 15% if you fill out a w8ben.
Additionally (same treaty) the UK SIPPs are recognised as a pension vehicle in the USA and if your broker is good enough that allows the divis to be paid gross into a UK SIPP. However the broker needs to claim the 15% tax back which a lot won't bother doing. Tax of course due on withdrawing cash from the sipp.
Article here for anyone interested that sums it up -
https://the-international-investor.com/investment-faq/reclaim-withholding-tax-foreign-dividends-isa-sipp
@SD325.
With any lease the security is only as good as the person / entity signing it. If you look at note 3, you can see the rental income from pubs went from £13.6m to £4.4m. Which TBH is totally expected as if you sought to charge rent in full last year the operators would just walk. Then what? Fingers crossed for no lockdowns in 2021, then should get back.
Would also be in the keep the pubs camp but with LTV at 50% and shopping centres falling, something big needs to be sold and that's the obvious chunk. Here's hoping for £200m+ and keeping the development land. If pubs are sold to a more standard operator redevelopment of excess land wouldnt typically be top of their requirements.
Also hidden away in there could be a few million...
"Post the balance sheet date our insurers have confirmed that, in principle, our insurance policy should cover machine and wet rent losses incurred within our Leased and Tenanted estate for an indemnity period of three months. While the details and quantum of this claim are still to be confirmed it will, if successful, further improve our UFFO, cash and liquidity position in FY22."
Twice a year based on 80% of UFFO. So next one will be at half year results based on 80% of UFFO for that period.
"Our future dividend policy will be to pay dividends equivalent to 80% of UFFO, with any top up as required under the REIT regime rules to be confirmed at the full year results. Dividends will be declared twice annually at the Company's half and full year results, with reference to the most recently completed six-month period."
Not sure where this £50m UFFO going forward is coming from? (since 2020 there have been disposals and rents have fallen so you cant just say look at 2020 figure).
Taking this years and working forward:
£11.2m
+£12.5m Add back COVID19 impact retail excluding CVA's (in this market CVA's arnt exceptional)
-£2.2m Less further disposals as highlighted (could be higher as this years disposals not full year)
-£1m Less Hawthrone to be disposed
+£8m Add back lower finance costs following Hawthorne sale (estimate based on % of debt to be repaid)
Ball park figure of £28.5m / £30m going forward. Which would be more like 8p translated into divi's, which at this price is still 8%.
Assuming they get £200m+ for Hawthorne would give some leeway to redevelop the likes of Burgess Hill etc. Have to ask if the potential / planning is that good, and given their need to sell items, why wasnt this sold with planning to a developer? the housebuilders have had a "good covid".
HL have paid scrip before on others I've held without issue.
Not sure how big the issue is. Any institution holding direct or with custody at BONY etc will handle them fine. So really it's just the private holders seemingly with certain brokers who can't or refuse to handle them. At a guess their systems are not automatic and require manual allocation for scrips between people who elect, which they can't be bothered to do, so will just accept all holders on any partial cash element. Which would be typical for a lazy broker.
Worth noting that no scrip has yet to be announced. Although fully understand why people are checking to be prepared.
The response given so far hasn't been so much we did nothing wrong (also clearly no admission of guilt), but more that the events occurred before we bought the business, were not disclosed to us and are covered under warranties given by former owners. Therefore there's a counterclaim against NEX (now bought by CME) for any costs/settlement.
You can see why the market might not like that potential situation. Claims over warranties given, what was disclosed at the time of purchase, SPA's etc. etc. drag on for years (not least when the other counterparty is a huge USA corporation) and the only winners tend to be lawyers and few others. Even in the most extreme cases - HP for example sued former Autonomy shareholders in 2015. Still ongoing...
Of course for the huge impact you need to lose not one but two cases. One - the one where you are liable for the issue, two the one where its covered under warranties when you bought the business. Win either one of them and its covered in theory, the risk is you lose the cum-ex battle with the German authorities \ Warberg etc, and then have a long drawn out battle with the CME over liability.
You are missing they are buying the assets.... not with debts etc which would be left with NRR.
Looking at the last set of accounts as of 30th September the carrying value of pubs and 24 C stores was £262m.
Assuming the 24 C stores are not being sold and valued at roughly £30m (the one sold in the accounts went for £1.1m), the pubs being sold are on the balance sheet at £232m.
£200m is about a 15% discount to whats on the balance sheet.
NAV for the whole lot was 169p per share so trading at a 30% discount.
If it goes through will be an uplift, with the cash going to reduce the overall LTV by paying off £200m of debt, although depends what discount is applied to whats left (Shopping centres). Is not as spectacular as finding £200m for old rope though!
Just some back up on that alternative use, see below from sept 2019 results, pre covid and when NAV was 244p a share... sadly wasn't actually real given since then residential property has risen.
"The Company undertook an alternative use value review at the period end across its entire retail portfolio. This is a detailed internal assessment factoring in demolition costs, construction costs and a development profit to calculate the value of the next best alternative use for our retail assets. Due to our assets being predominantly located in town centres, the vast majority of the alternative use potential relates to residential development. At September 2019, the total alternative use valuation for our retail portfolio, at £848 million, was just 13% below our retail portfolio valuation of £973 million, which we consider to be an underpin to our valuations."
https://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/newriver_retail_ltd/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1683&newsid=1346358
Good analysis 34. One point I would add is a lot of us holders / traders who come in and out of this, don't pay much attention to that alternative use figure. Why? Well they have said it for years and the NAV has shot right through it on multiple occasions. The NAV shouldn't have dropped between March and Nov if that alternative use figure was real , as resi was the alternative use.. as well resi property has risen.
Johnpohn, there isn't a cash pile in the true sense of the word. As in it hasn't arisen through trading but merely additional borrowing and some asset sales. Given the LTV its sadly not distributable to shareholders hence why people are rightly talking about the possibility of a scrip divi
Nothings been announced yet. Just an assumption that they may go down that route to maintain REIT status but avoid a cash distribution.
Haha. I can see why the nonsense happens on small cap aim listed potential coal mines, a mine at that stage being "a hole in the ground with a lier stood next to it", thanks mark twain. There £6k of volume from ramping or reverse could possibly do something. With this it's just weird!
All this "ramping", "deramping" chat is bizarre. This is a vast company with daily volume traded of £50m quid a day plus.
The notion you could influence the price by posting here is like suggesting you could change the earth's orbit by stamping really, really hard. Just bizarre.
Typically the contracts have an inflation uplift upto ~5% per annum in there. If inflation goes to 3 or 4 or 5% you are fine. Tesco etc is charging more hence why inflation has risen and paying more in rent. If inflation goes to the moon and stays high, then the rental contracts will offer little protection until a rent review. Personally i cant see inflation hitting over 5% as that would require some hefty wages rises or a collapse in GBP against the USD. Cant see either personally. If you do then there are better options than this for protection.
Reading between the lines its impossible to know what the holdings will be in a years time. The new manager knows most of these are dogs, the worst being " Industrial Heat which has been revalued due to a lack of technical and operational progress;"... right lack of operation progress... as its supposedly breaking the laws of thermodynamics, good luck!
Really is a wait an see what the holdings end up as, until it becomes investable, just my two cents. " the Company has refinanced its credit facility to place it in a strong financial position enabling the Portfolio Manager the opportunity to improve the portfolio's diversification going forward."