Member Info for JRtandi

Lots of ZA coal miners will be flush with cash now. Outfits like Thungela and Bisichi could do with bolstering their resource.

Surely MCM could command be a premium now for assets like GPS?

I wonder who has been buying the other ~50m shares (Senosi+Dendocept ~146m).

I just can't imagine it being PIs - this has been a bottom drawer share for too many years to have that sort of PI engagement.

I'm impatient for news on Vele colliery. We know they have been recruiting for it in recent months (via Senosi-linked JCI Mining no less) and we know there are folk from Senosi's Overlooked Group on-site since September (the Mine Manager linkedin profile I found).

From recent RNS:

"The Company has previously reported that when market conditions improve, the reopening of Vele would be considered and options being evaluated include the possible outsourcing of operations at the colliery. The Company is currently assessing potential partnerships in this regard and any development model that includes elements of outsourcing will reduce the start-up working capital funding and prioritise resources on the development of the flagship Makhado Project."

....this seems to have "Senosi" all over this?

Since 1st August:
Average: 273.39
Highest: 355.00
Lowest: 183.00

Last 30 days:
Average: 209.29
Highest: 259.00
Lowest: 183.00

December so far:
Average: 253.28
Highest: 259.00
Lowest: 248.50

Found on Linkedin:

Mine Manager
Overlooked Group
Sep 2022 - Present 4 months
Vele Colliery Limpopo SA

If we take the Post-tax NPV (10%) estimate for Makhado of 3.8bn ZAR and assume a valuation of 50% as soon as funding is sorted then in today's money (~400m shares) we get ~22p/share, increasing to 44p after the 12 month construction period?

A 30% pre-funding valuation gets us to ~13p/share? That's just for Makhado.

Anyone want to make a stab at Uitkomst, Vele and GPS valuations?

Uitkomst would be easier to calculate once we get to see the numbers for this quarter + have an understanding of whether we can bank on having the export lifeline available to us for the next few years. But could be e.g. >10p....?

Not on Telegram unfortunately but I do check-in here regularly.

Further potential news this month? Maybe:

-IDC due diligence on additional funding for Makhado

-extension/renewal of Uitkomst sales agreement?

-news on hot commissioning of Vele colliery? (the share bonus incentive scheme that would be triggered by this milestone had its deadline extended to end of December)

-detailed engineering update on Makhado CPP?
"The Company appointed Erudite (Pty) Ltd (Erudite) to complete the detailed study work that will allow for a full process plant design specifically for the Makhado CPP. Erudite expects to complete the study during December 2022. "

251.00 +12.00 (+5.02%)

Bozmo- did you manage to attend the AGM?

237.50 +43.45 (+22.39%)

Continuing the rough calculations I would guesstimate that following the RI at least ~75% of all shares are not held in public hands.

The PIs who held all the way down to 6p might also be considered "sticky" and with high averages.

All this to say that should this share finally get the attention it deserves (stellar LOM, massive resource) then things could go vertical rather quickly?

Of the 3%+ shareholders both Pan African Resources (30/06/2022: 15,432,581 shares) and ArcelorMittal (30/06/2022: 6,306,672 shares) have yet to release an update on whether their shareholdings have been diluted. I don't know the deadlines for these things but seems perhaps an indication that they participated in the rights issue?

No new holding RNS either - again, no idea on the deadline for announcing such but seems would have had to be done by now?

So of the ~200m RI shares at least ~168m (~84%) are in sticky hands?

Maybe also:
what's the minimum API4 price needed to secure another sales agreement for export? Presumably there is a point below which it wouldn't be interesting anymore for Overlooked and similar.

What's the additional average total cost per ton to get the coal shipped out from Uitkomst to Richards Bay (trucking/logistics, commission, export charges etc)?

Re. AGM questions: it's in the public domain that there have been lots of jobs advertised for Vele Colliery recently. Can they confirm whether these are for a potential restart or just to maintain the current care and maintenance (the answer seems pretty obvious to me)?

Also, can they commit to keeping their UK listing?

Are they focused on minimizing further dilution by giving preference to creative solutions to raise the needed funds (BOOT, prepayment, further sales agreement to tap into export, sale of non-core assets etc)?

Bozmo, do you think they might look to selling the GPS assets?

A multi-billion resource like that might be better suited to e.g. Thungela?

The $75m paid for Chapudi, 10 years ago, would be worth ~16p per share in today's money, that's before taking into account the permitting received since and the current coal prices....

API4 back over $200/t. Should bode well for an extension to the sales agreement with Overlooked?

IDC update imminent, could be any day now.

There should be plenty of news next couple of weeks/months.

Some may have re-rating potential e.g. possible ones are Vele restart, BOOT agreement, financial results of the sales agreement with Overlooked (going to be extra big because of the delayed shipment into this quarter), an extension to the sales agreement...

Other news should (hopefully) bolster confidence and reduce risk e.g. imminent news on IDC (re)finance.

Plenty of scope for banana peels as always in this sector/country but since the boardroom "coup" that saw Gomwe and Nene installed (both majorly influential "big beasts") it feels like there is now actually a firm roadmap to get this thing done.

I think at least ~180m of the 200m newly issued hands went into sticky hands.

Senosi and Dendocept alone took up 146m between them and of the other major institutions only Haohua have confirmed they did not participate in the RI.

More liquidity won't be a bad thing for this share.

187$/t for API4 FOB is still pretty good for shoulder season.

Would liked to have seen the delayed coal shipments make it into the Q3. It would have been an awesome result for MCM.

I am seeing a lot of enthusiasm from small PIs in ZA - buying a couple 100 rand worth at a time. Have seen YouTube influencers cover MCM, Twitter posts etc.

If MCM can limit further dilution and start putting some positive FCF numbers on the board then I believe there could be enough excitement to propel this towards 60-80 pence and beyond.

There will be plenty of folk who missed out on the recent coal plays and FOMO together with positive financial data and sustained coal prices could make MCM fly Thungela style.

Should hopefully support higher prices for some time to come:

REUTERS: "Elevated EU coal usage to last around three years - EU climate policy chief"

Regarding Vele Colliery commissioning, there was this about it in the AR:

"On 24 September 2020, 1,602,393 Performance Rights were issued to senior management as a special incentive. These were granted to certain employees of the Company in the form of MC Mining Limited shares. The Incentive Shares will vest in full on the hot commissioning of the Vele Colliery plant. If the hot commissioning does not take place before 31 December 2022, the Incentive Shares will lapse. As at 31 March 2022, the commissioning of the Vele plant did not occur. A directors resolution was passed on 22 March 2022 to extend the expiry date of the special incentive to 31 December 2022."

No guarantee it will happen by end of December but given the slew of vacancies advertised in recent months, the chamge of plans re. Makhado CPP and the need for cash flow seems like Vele going online would be an important part of the plan to get Makhado into production.

Should be lots of news coming our way soon:

Update on the oustanding A$23.54m IDC loan (was pushed back to 30 November 2022)

Update on the new $15m IDC loan for Makhado (final draw down date was pushed back to 30 November 2022. The A$40m rights issue was the conditional equity component for it)

News of a Makhado contractor BOOT arrangement of $3.7 million

News on "hot" commissioning of Vele

Update on this: "MC Mining has also contracted specialised engineering consultants to complete the detailed design for the Makhado CPP."

Anything I've missed?