Member Info for JPMustang

Today I saw this discussion on a forum that is yech heavy (Y-Combinator) and thought of sharing it here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46199411

It's around a discussion on this article related to Kroger closing their automated fulfillment centers: https://www.grocerydive.com/news/kroger-ocado-close-automated-fulfillment-centers-robotics-grocery-ecommerce/805931/

@Stumpy My fair price would be around £1.5 and I see it from a different point of view. I'm not discounting the tech, but recognising Ocado is a supermarket *and* a tech company. On top, it's a tech company that is capital intensive.

I'm not familiar with other robotics companies, but doing a quick check is seems the average EV/EBITDA is ~17x.

@Stupmy something closer to a supermarket in terms of EV/EBITDA. For me 12x-15x EV/EBITDA would be its fair price.

For reference Tesco has 8x EV/EBITDA, Microsoft and Oracle are ~23x, and Ocado is at 20x. What I ask myself is to which of these companies is Ocado closer in terms of growth, tech and profitability?

A long time ago I wrote here how suprised I was that Ocado was priced as a tech company while it wasn't very successful at selling their automated fullfilment technology. I'm not saying it was a failure, just that it was very slow moving and without other orgs queuing to buy the tech.

I haven't paid attention to any RNS in a while, but from reading other comments here it looks like the increase in revenue came from customers / orders from their supermarket business in the UK.

I think the fair price for ocado would be if it would be priced similarly as Tesco, not Tesla.

@Liberty2, I assume you meant the opposite, either a short opening or someone wanting out at any cost.

That was the quickest money I've ever made in a spread betting account :D

There's no liquidity today, look at the volume.

I second, great oportunity to buy any panic sells, but there's not much to buy either.

It depends. Currys had an offer for 65p (if I recall correctly), the offer was rejected and the price kept going up (it's ~85p now). Others can fall dramatically, but those are usually failing companies anyway.

GOOD is a solid company with an expanding moat. The offer at the end of last year for £4 was before the penny dropped about AI power-hungry needs.

~40% of their production comes from BF (https://www.endeavourmining.com/our-portfolio/ scroll to the bottom).

I'm sure EDV will have people that knows how to manage (aka bribe) the goverment to keep their mines open, but if they fail, EDV will probably get pennies from the revokation of the permit. I woundn't be suprised if the SP goes down 20% today.

I will see this from a distance. The product doesn't make any sense: help client companies to better evaluate and commercialise technology discoveries and to recruit tech executives.

Using AI for personel selection has been prooved to be too biased and perform poorly. I reckon they didn't charge a penny to the current clients (not a bad thing on its own), but this smells very much of a money grab.

If anyone wants to play this stock, go for it, but this is in the horse race bet category for me.

I've sold my CAB. I'm happy the old CEO is gone as he was a charlatan and hope the new one will be better, but the C-level suit is quite bad.

I have a lot of hopes, but after this RNS the narrative that the company will limp back to private hands (maybe Helios) for a fraction of the price when it went public feels very strong.

Good luck to everyone who is happy to take this risk on!

One of CABs lines of business is as an intermediary for remittances. The payment platform allowed to send money directly to bank accounts and mobile wallets (mobile wallets are extremely popular in Africa). This partnership with VISA will open a whole new set of doors for economies that are a bit more developed and that are transitioning from mobile wallets (tied to a phone number) to a debit card-enabled one.

I wouldn't be suprised if CAB also becomes a partner to provide liquidity to VISA in Africa and other developing economies.

It's very iliquid stock, so the changes tend to be quite wild. This morning in a 5-minute period 8500 shares traded moved the price 1.82%.

I find it amusing that a £8.5k traded volume increased the market cap by >£4 millions (at least on paper).

I have too much CAB already from the time it went from 50p to 100p, but happy I grabbed a few £k at 90p around a week ago.

I wish I had been quicker and bought that at 80p, but well... profit is profit.

There was something happening on the 24th of July, but looking at the CAB investors page, the next update will be Interim Results on 4th September 2024.

https://cabpayments.com/investors-home/latest-updates-calendar/

It's a very illiquid stock. If anyone tries to buy/sell 100k shares quickly (~1 hour) it will move the price >10%. This is probably more pronounced for sells than for buys.

I know some of you bought CAB at 50p when it took a dive last year. YouGov dropped 50% last Thusday and it looks like it will have a quick recovery to £8-9. On Friday it had already gone by 6%.

After doing some more homework last night and this morning I opened a long position. Last night, while reading about the company I got the impression there was a lot of risk and that this dip could be permanent.

I chatted with some product and marketing ex-colleagues and they only had praise for YouGov. A profitable company, with customers that like their product is an excellent starting point.

I'm still unsure about why the profit warning was so late in the financial year and the skim explanation around it. My hypothesis is that the merge earlier in the year somehow delayed making the announcement. I can see this going up to ~£6 at the end of July and getting close to £8 on the 15th of Oct when the full year announcement is made.

Thanks for the link Scoobydoo321!

Would be good to know where you got that. I don't see anything similar and searching accross multiple places I have seen (both from the 20th of June):

from https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yougov-shares-crash-shock-profit-090203193.html

> Peel Hunt analysts Jessica Pok and Melanie Yang said: “Today’s downgrade is larger than we expected. We plan to revise our forecasts in due course.”

And https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/250500/yougov-shares-down-43-on-profit-warning.aspx

> Peel Hunt analyst Jessica Pok said this indicated downgrades to forecasts for financial 2024 of around 6% to revenue, and 38% to adjusted operating profit.

>

>"This was a disappointing statement from YouGov, given the high visibility reported at the interims," she said.