Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
vike1: Try this one. It's jergens file comverted to MP3. https://www.dropbox.com/s/qebdnq61fkgluyy/WRL_Q1-2016_Conference_Call.mp3?dl=0
Confirmed. http://forum.hegnar.no/post.asp?id=20479913
"Meanwhile Professor Muhongo said that plants produce electricity using natural gas Kinyerezi I currently generates 150 megawatts, adding that payment for construction machinery Kinyerezi II being built by the company in the Sumitomo from Japan have ended." https://translate.google.no/translate?hl=en&sl=sw&u=http://michuzijr.blogspot.com/2016/03/mcc-kutoathiri-miradi-ya-rea-ya.html If this is correct, production from Mnazi should now be above 70 mmscf/d.
If production is now above 70 mmscf/d and will increase up to 80 mmscf/d during Q2, it's slightly better than previous guiding. It depends on how you read it.
From the Government: Kinyerezi II will be supplied with gas from Mtwara. "The project, which will generate electricity using natural gas transported by pipeline from Mtwara, is expected to start generating electricity in the period from 21 months to 28 completed entirely." https://translate.google.no/translate?hl=en&sl=sw&u=http://www.matukiotz.co.tz/2016/03/rais-magufuli-aweka-jiwe-la-msingi.html
Mick, Listen to the conference call and judge for yourself. WRL are guiding YE Cash = +/- YE Debt. https://www.dropbox.com/s/0kypmz9va8qbems/WRL%20Q4.mp3?dl=0
One thing is for sure Mick; I'm not ignoring anything. Further delays are expected because nothing has so far been achieved within the guided timelines. It's Africa and it's not M&P/WRL's fault. What's important is that WRL moves in the right direction. Slow yes, but still in the right direction. It's impossible to avoid risks. The question is whether they are huge (AEX) og small (WRL) :)
Mick, My spreadsheet is nothing more than a model. Adjust the numbers as you like, and they may be more correct than mine. On the other hand, my numbers are based on guiding from WRL. Good or bad, right or wrong? I don't know. My figures for Q4 are based on change in cash, revenue and expences. Your corrections will be appreciated. The only thing I know about TPDC receivables is that the sum for December was allegedly received in January 2016 and was not recorded in 2015.
Ain't that bad. https://personal.filesanywhere.com/fs/v.aspx?v=8d6c688c61666fa86f68
I've sent an email to Lance and asked him if he could clarify the exact status of TPDC receivables for Q4 in today's conference call.
No problem Mick :-) About TPDC: Keep in mind that gas via the new pipeline generates a huge income for them and the government. Gasco (TPDC) buy the gas from M&P/WRL for $3.07/mcf and sell it to Symbion and Tanesco for about $5/mcf. Take a profit of about $2/mcf from all gas + "profit gas" from M&P/WRL + TPDC's 20% share and you'll see that TPDC are taking the lions share of all income from Mnazi. To pay M&P/WRL their share is no big issue as long as $ comes in from Tanesco and Symbion.
Mick "an agreed percentage" is a monthly percentage of TPDC's 20% until the totals reach $35.75 million. And the payment protection consists of a fund + a bank warranty. According to WRL this mechanism is not expected to be tested at all. TPDC are paying per month according to plan and they have established strict internal routines to avoid any delays in payment. Anyhow, we wil be updated by the Q-reports and will see if they ever start to draw money from the fund.
Hi Mick, My calculations are just a starting point and will of course change over time, so it's just what we know today with more or less certainty. I also expect production to be higher than estimated, but have picked some numbers here and others there just to try to identify the variables and their impact on the bigger picture. Regarding TPDC receivables, from the Q3-report, page 10: "Long-term receivable - TPDC" The Company has a receivable from TPDC, a 20% participating interest partner in the Mnazi Bay Concession, for TPDC’s share of past development and operating costs that were paid by the Company prior to June 30, 2009. In addition, the Company has been paying for its proportionate share of TPDC’s share of development and operating costs incurred subsequent to June 30, 2009, the value of which has been added to the TPDC receivable balance. The Company will recover this receivable from an agreed percentage of TPDC’s share of current and future production revenue from the Mnazi Bay Concession. The undiscounted face value of the TPDC receivable at September 30, 2015 is $35.75 million (December 31, 2014 - $33.52 million). Due to its long-term nature, the TPDC receivable has been discounted to $32.43 million (December 31, 2014 - $28.91 million). This reported fair value is discounted to reflect the time expected until the receivable is settled in the future. With the passage of time and the move closer to recovery of the receivable, the carrying amount of the TPDC receivable is accreted up to the face value with a corresponding credit to finance income. Completion of the Mtwara to Dar es Salaam gas pipeline has a significant positive impact on the ultimate timing of recovery of the TPDC receivable. Internal Company estimates indicate that the $35.75 million face value of this receivable is expected to be fully recovered within 18 to 24 months from delivery of first gas." I think it's clear enough. And do not confuse TPDC with Tanesco. The Orca-case is about Tanesco.
Hi Mick Here's my spreadsheet: https://personal.filesanywhere.com/fs/v.aspx?v=8d6c6789586770adb4 It's in an early stage and need to be adjusted, but it's a convinient tool and it gives some indications about what we are talking about. :) There's no doubt regarding TPDC receivables except exact how much per month. But who cares as long as it will be fully paid over the next two years. The meeting in Oslo was organized by Swedbank and I just invited myself. I don't think Statoil are interested in WRL, but they asked a lot and wrote down all the answers.
The key here is TPDC receivables. WRL are receiving nearly all of TPDC's 20% share and will do so until the +/- $35m have been paid back. This means WRL will make about $45-$50m a year starting this year. Still a lot of uncertainty but at Feb. 25th we'll know more. In Q1 they will in addition start receiving money for the line-pack. There is no "Orca-scenario" because all payments are done in time so far, incl. TPDC receivables. They have not used the payment protection and don't expect to do either. I spoke with Katherine an Geoffrey 2-3 weeks ago in Oslo and they answered a lot of questions. Two guys from Statoil was at the meeting too, asking more than anyone else. :)
My estimates. Gas sales: · Q4-15; $6.5m · Q1-16; $9.5m · Q2-16; $12m · Q3-16; $12m · Q4-16; $12m 2016 G&A: $6m. 2016 Debt Repayment: $8.7m. 2016 Capex: $3.5m. 2016 Tax / Royalty: $10m. Cash at YE 2015: $2.7m. 2016 Net: $17m. My estimated cash at YE 2016: $20m. Charlie Sharp at Canaccord Genuity Limited (UK) estimated cash at YE 2016 = $15m.
"Canadian based Wentworth Resources plans to double its natural gas production from 46 million standard cubic feet per day (MMscf/d) currently to 80 MMscf/d by March when new Kinyerezi power plant starts operating." http://www.ippmedia.com/?l=88286
Wentworth Resources Ltd (LON:WRL)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reaffirmed by equities researchers at FinnCap in a research note issued on Tuesday, MarketBeat Ratings reports. They presently have a GBX 63 ($0.90) price target on the stock. FinnCap’s price objective points to a potential upside of 138.41% from the stock’s current price. http://zolmax.com/investing/finncap-reaffirms-buy-rating-for-wentworth-resources-ltd-wrl/344031/
Dear xxxxxx Under the terms of our GSA, we are contracted to supply gas up that amount to TPDC. The new Petroleum Law in Tanzania allows for TPDC to be the aggregator of all gas sales so we do not envisage selling gas to another party other than TPDC. We have clear line of sight on where the 70 – 80mmscf/d demand will be supplied and we also know where the uplift in demand to 130mmscf/d will come from in the domestic power market. We also think there may be some industrial demand emerging (for example Dangote Cement), possibly this year but more likely in 2017, which will further increase TPDC’s requirement to take more Mnazi Bay gas. We do have a steady cashflow going forward now from gas sales and we plan to use that to grow the Company sensibly as we believe strong capital growth will provide shareholders with a solid return on their investment. We do not envisage any meaningful capital expenditure and drilling for 2016 which is positive given how well the wells have performed to date and allows us the ability to strengthen the balance sheet by building up gas more quickly. We do plan on pursuing an investment programme in Mnazi Bay for 2017 to possibly include one development well and one exploration well to be funded from internally generated cashflow and therefore avoid dilution to existing holders by raising new equity. The absolute performance of our share price is frustrating and disappointing to all of us, including management who are fully aligned with shareholders in this respect. We are in the worst sector for energy companies in 11 years and there are fears this will only get worse throughout 2016. We are, unfortunately, affected by the general sell-off in E&P stocks but are differentiated in that we will prosper despite a dreadful market and not only survive where others won’t, but also we grow stronger operationally every day. Thanks again for your long-term support. All the best Katherine
Production: Supply The existing Mnazi Bay gas wells have performed in line with expectations, with no water produced, negligible condensate and no pressure decline after around four months of production. The current production levels have been reached using three wells. Currently four are tied in, MS-1X, MB-2, MB-3 and MB-4, meaning the Company is well-equipped to ramp up production in line with the increase in demand with no further Capex. MB-3 has produced at a rate of 28 mmcf/d, MB-2 has produced at 20 mmcf/d, MB-4 at 28 mmcf/d and MS1-X at 15 mmcf/d. MB-1, which provides c.2 mmcf/d to the Mtwara power plant, is not yet tied-in and the Company is able to reach 80 mmcf/d without it. Net Capex to tie-in the well to the main pipeline would be c.US$3.5 mm and makes up the vast majority of the Company’s Capex for 2016. With all five wells tied-in, the Company believes it could produce well over 100 mmcf/d. Wentworth expects production to reach 130 mmcf/d around mid-2017, requiring a maximum of one well that would be drilled the same year and cost c.US$20 mm gross. No new development wells are currently planned for 2016, meaning we have pushed out the ramp up to 130 mmcf/d to 3Q17.