Member Info for JonnyCache

Importantly still on target for June commissioning.

@jimb2

I should have said earlier thanks for finding this :-)

It's a very unusual situation that KDNC is in now - licence granted but only a couple of months from production and a massive NPV with strong possibilities of being part of a regional rejuvenation story.

All the best everyone especially Bannor. I remember you from back in the COVID days when EMH was to be the next big thing.

The explicit mention of Gold alongside Iron Ore in the license is the "X-Factor."

​New Narrative: Up until now, KDNC has been marketed almost exclusively as an iron ore play. The official state confirmation of gold extraction rights allows analysts to add a "Gold-By-Product" credit to their models.

​Valuation Floor: Gold rights in the Vila Nova Greenstone Belt are highly coveted. This "hidden asset" provides a much higher fundamental floor.

It seems to be correct I copy and pasted directly from the pdf

The presentation was good but no new info.

Missing the March expectation for the licence and then having a presentation based on no new news was a mistake.

It should only be another couple of weeks but the market doesn't like uncertainty.

It would have been better to say that there's a reasonable expectation of the various licences to be in place within the month and the li to be released shortly after in an rns and cancel the presentation.

It reeks of expecting go ok news to discuss and then there being none.

I sold 25% of my position in case it's a word salad with no real info from Kiran.

At least it we retest 4.1 I'll have some dry powder and I'm only losing 25% of the potential upside from a no RNS presentation.

Let's see if theres a 9.30am RNS I'll be kicking myself lol

Interesting thread. Rather than focusing on specifics I have been focusing my research on the quality of the asset Vs risk of it not being realised. A summary of my Gemini research

The core thesis is that you are holding a "Green Iron" champion currently priced as an explorer, despite being on the cusp of becoming a producer.

​Pillar 1: The High-Value Asset (Amapá Iron Ore)

​The Amapá project in Brazil is the "engine" of your portfolio. Unlike many AIM explorers, this is a brownfield restart, not a new discovery.

​Massive Valuation: An updated Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) values the project at a post-tax NPV of $1.97 Billion.

​Infrastructure Advantage: The project includes a dedicated railway and its own private port. Replacing this infrastructure from scratch today would cost billions.

​Premium Product: It targets 67.5% DR-grade concentrate. This is "Green Iron" used to decarbonize steel, which commands a high price premium over standard 62% iron ore.

​Pillar 2: The "Azteca" Near-Term Catalyst

​While full-scale production is the long-term goal, the Azteca Plant provides the immediate re-rating opportunity.

​Production Timeline: Commissioning is targeted for the end of June 2026.

​Cash Flow: Azteca is expected to produce 380,000 tonnes per annum, generating an estimated EBITDA of US$16 million per year. This provides the cash to develop the wider project without needing to constantly dilute shareholders.

​Funding: The refurbishment is largely funded via an offtake agreement, with Cadence only contributing approximately US$0.4 million.

​Pillar 3: Deep Valuation Discount (The "Gap")

​The market currently assigns a very low value to KDNC's 36.2% stake in Amapá due to "Licensing Risk."

​The Milestone: The project is in the final administrative review for the Installation License (LI).

@MerMillions

@ Bannor

I hope you do see the growth in capital that you initially invested for.

That's some holding!

I'm a recent recruit but been around a while.

500k @ 4.55 avg

Hoping that we might see 18p+ by end of year

For me the licence the move from speculative risk to solid investment.

I can understand why traders will take profit but I think there's a fair risk of a buyout offer once the li is granted. I'm happy to have a horizon until the end of the year.

I'm here until sell out or first shipping.

That was certainly a better day.

Roll on Friday and a positive update.

Even better the licence granted before it :-)

I would imagine Kiran will have some indication that next week will see good progress.

He wouldn't want to be sitting at an investor meeting explaining why he has no progress to report.

I think a deal will be done before Azteca starts processing. Being able to produce without the buyout or JV is a great negotiating tool.

LI - JV/Buyout - We all move onto pastures new.

Before the end of June I reckon.

Part of the play here is the amount of infrastructure that we have control of, in an area that needs regeneration across the entire industry and region. We've even got proof that we can get funding for litigation where our owned assets value is "destroyed" by hostile authorities. You could not make it up.

I'm not seeing any ramping.

At some point the market will settle and people will start to take on board a bit of risk.

I'll take a 5% rise a week for the next few months thank you with the likelyhood of litigation success within 24 months and a 1.7bn mine starting cash production within 6 months. Both of which have a solid basis for actually happening. DYOR

The argument will be made that the settlement should include the actual value of the resource and losses that kdnc suffered, not their initial investment cost.

An unexpected surprise. Good news. I would expect a settlement to be made. The govt will have expected this.

... Waiting for news :-)

Lol I think that may be true!

I managed to get another 2.5k @ 4.15 earlier.

I wonder what they will sell for in 6 months? I'll be very content with 10p but that could happen before production.

Now it's just a

If you were to think of the ideal situation for a moonshot this would be it.

Early licences already granted.

Geopolitical situation in favour of success.

Regional willingness to support the project.

Signed funding which is already being used to upgrade the existing equipment for a return to production.

Cash producing timeline for 90 days (involving reconditioning of existing equipment)

Recent positive RNS has caused minimal price action due to the reasons stated here and elsewhere.

This is the very definition of a high risk play, mitigated by factual information and ongoing movement towards cash producing.

This is not speculating on a green field site in Mexico that someday someone might develop in 5 years.

We have funds, orders and support.