Member Info for Jonah58

All good points. The choice of end points, the per cent improvement deemed to be therapeutically useful and the confidence required in the result will determine how many patients need to be recruited. But remember, there was a significant improvement in the sero-positive patients in the original study (less than 200 of them, of course) so I think Nolupus's something between 300 and 500 is wide of the mark. (We have already had this discussion, so no need to repeat. The original study was not under-powered).
I'm useless at Sp prediction, but I am fairly confident Lupuzor will make it to the market, so Imm still represents a pretty good long term punt IMHO.

Incidentally, off topic, but perhaps permissable as it has no board of its own, you may care to take a look at Poxel. I'm glad I did. It's making headway in Japan which is a good start...

A bit more volume than you'd expect for New Year's eve. A little blue and Pt very near its 12 month high,

It's sunny here in the Alps, so I'll drink to a good 2020. I genuinely believe it will be.

Wishing all the excellent and courteous posters on this board a Happy Christmas.

I'm looking forward to 2020 enormously. In particular I'll be watching:

Basket price of PGMs. The chartists predict a breakout if Pt can keep its head above $900.

News of first Zn production at Kabwe. I can't wait to hear that we've started to clear up the poluted abomination of that place.

The big chrome player's response to our fine chrome technology. I suspect, clever though it is, profitability will be marginal and dependant on the price of chrome concentrate.

Dilokong. As posted before, I am not a big fan of expensive new build without a deal on third party ore in order to extend the life of the project.

Vastly increased income stream from Hernic and Windsor.

Just a guess, but I reckon a big copper/cobalt deal is just around the corner in Zambia.

Good luck everyone.
J58

Maybe it was Kalan buying back in on the dip Sumo. I certainly did, though my trading tranche is far too small to make a difference.

Palladium hit $2000 on tyhe ask today. Astonishing.

The share price isn't crashing.

Incidentally, I'll be buying back in with my trading tranche if I can get 3.85 tomorrow.

Thanks Portal. I guess this will be detrimental to us in the short term. If the problem persists, however, low cost producers like us might paradoxically benefit.

Thanks to all who responded to my query. I was working on a lower figure for Rhodium, based on the composition of tailings rather than run of mine material, but I accept that there is considerable variability in all the different materials, and, indeed, from one part of a dump to another. In an article from 2008 I read that Sylvania were getting about 50% of their income from Rhodium. That seems a bit much to me, but it shows what the current price for Rhodium is doing.

Thanks Gameangler. This is a very high value for Rh. I suspect our tailings will contain a lot less, but I am grateful for the information and will continue to try and find out what I can. As you say, it is unlikely Jubilee will make this information public for reasons of comercial discretion.

not to mention rhodium, whose move is even more extraordinary. Has anyone been able to work out what percentage of the material produced at Hernic is rhodium? By my calculations, it must be very low with quite a considerable quantitiy of ruthenium (of far lesser value) produced, but it is difficult to get a handle on it.

Very many thanks for posting. Much appreciated by all here, I am sure.

Just a nice Christmas present for Mrs Phosa. Good luck to them - they've earned it this year.

Yes, we will have to wait. But (!) it is important to discuss the numbers of patients since that will affect the recruitment time and the cost of the trial. It is a common misconception that increasing the number of patients affects the outcome of a trial. The number recruited will be precisely the number required to detect the hoped-for treatment effect with the appropriate degree of confidence (p value). Now, if we are looking for smaller effects and/or a greater degree of confidence in the result then more patients will be needed. I think we can be sure that the statistical discussions will take place with the FDA and, soon enough, you will be able to say 'told you so' if I am wrong!

Hi Canis. Involvement in a previous trial was certainly one of the exclusion criteria of our Phase 3 study. This is normal practice. I don't know whether the managed access programme will count as a previous study, but strongly suspect it will (unfortunately). We will need to recruit 'new' patients. The relations built up with specific centres in our first study could well prove valuable here, as long as they have not 'exhausted' their supply of recruitable patients.

On a more general issue, whilst appreciative of Nolupus' more cautious stance, I disagree with his estimate of the number of patients we need to recruit. The original trial was not underpowered. If we had recruited 200 more patients and they had responded in a similar fashion to the first cohort (and we must assume they would have) then the trial would have still been negative. The power of a larger trial would be to detect a smaller benefit in outcome at a significant level. The subgroup analysis showed significant benefit in a group of less than 200 patients. Measuring outcome in Lupus, whose activity in a particular patient may vary in time with spontaneous remissions ands relapses, is tricky - a fact now accepted by the FDA. I think the new trial will look very closely at inclusion criteria and outcome measures and has an extremely strong chance of returning a positive verdict.

I have a poor record for predicting price movement, but do not share the wildly optimistic immediate forecasts of our visiting rampscallions. So much depends on sentiment and there are imponderables: the time to completion of the trial, the lights need to be kept on, Avion is not exactly GSK, the loss of the US market, the emergence of competing therapies etc I am however increasingly confident that Lupuzor will make it to the market and the Sp will respond. When? Well, I'll be 72 in April. I'm planning with barely restrained excitement to use my investment to fund a fabulous shindig for my 75th .(alternatively, it should cover a modest funeral).

Hi Kalan. I thought we were already producing copper cathode. I'm not sure whether we will be simply toll processing (third party material has been mentioned previously) or processing some of our own material too. I had assumed the former, but, for the first time, copper has been mentioned alongside the Kabwe tailings. Quote "... Jubilee estimates there are 6.4million tonnes of surface tailings in the region surrounding Kabwe containing Zinc, Vanadium and Lead as well as Copper,” he (Leon) said.

Overall, I take the article to indicate an intense interest in JLP increasing its investment in Zambia, but I am not attaching too much importance to the detail. For instance, the million tons is 'gold resource' not physical gold. Colin seems quite interested in it though...

Nolupus. I think you are being pessimistic here. The original trial was powered to detect a significant difference in outcome measures and included 202 patients. If they had all show the bias towards treatment effectiveness that was observed in the sero-positive patients it would undoubtedly have been positive. I guess a similar number will be recruited, though a larger number might be considered in order to detect smaller treatment benefits. Sadly, the patients in the original study will not be allowed into the new one. I also remain slightly concerned about the proportion of patients in the original trial who came from Mauritius. I just think that unknow genetic factors might have been at play in so many subjects from a small isolated community.

I am excited by the prospect of a new P3 trial. It gives us an amazing opportunity to learn the lessons from the first trial, and do somethingcientifically important.

Boko. You are asking reasonable questions, though I doubt you will get any reasonable answers until the feeding frenzy is over. The science here is good, and I have little doubt that a trial restricted to sero-positive patents will give a positive result. The figures from the last trial, in this subgroup, were unambiguous, though more patients will be needed to confirm this. The side effect profile of Lupuzor is excellent. A rival drug with worse side effects and less activity in sero-positive patients is raking in good money. What I am saying is that I still believe this company is a good long term hold, even ignoring its other projects and other indications for Lupuzor. I don't know if a placement will be needed to keep the lights on, but it would be wise not to exclude that. (My opinion is that it will, but my opinion on matters non-scientific is not worth much). As for setting your stop loss, I have no idea about short term movements. I took a bit out yesterday, but am holding on to the majority of my investment for the longer term. I have not set a stop loss as I believe, after the recent RNS, that the current MCAP undervalues the company and any dips are likely to be short lived.

There seems to be a hysterical outburst of unsubstantiated claims about price movement here. The previous high of about 190 was based on an imminent phase three trial outcome (presumed positive) and worldwide rights to Lupuzor. We now have another trial with a more selective patient group, which will not report for ages and, if positive, will exclude Imm from the most lucrative market (USA). There will of course, be royalties, but CNRS will also have to get its share.

I am a long term holder here, and am thrilled by today's news. It's good for everyone and especially so for the subgroup of patients who are undoubtedly going to respond to this drug. Well done to all involved in clinching the deal. But there are still sufficient imponderables for the claims of some recent posters to be no more than wild, self-serving, speculation.

As a PS. I hope reduction in maintenance dose of steroids is one of the primary endpoints of the new trial. That would be a big plus for patients.

What news are you expecting, Ronaldo? A TR-1? I think copper at Kabwe is just toll processing to fulfill our sulphuric acid obligations. Zinc at Kabwe is Q1 2020. Fine chrome at Windsor and Hernic will come on line in due course, but I doubt this will be before end of January. Go-ahead for PGMs at Dilokong seems to be waiting for ever. Maybe a new project or joint venture, but I'm not expecting anything ground breaking until 2020.

Lot of water under the bridge, Sujo. I'm afraid you're unlikely to get a balanced answer here.