Member Info for jollyspeculator

off obvious support

v good question...you would need a good understanding of split of revenues and op profit across the group structure in order to focus higher up ...I suggest you look at all of rev, op profit and earnings attributable...but pay most attention to earnings and look closely at op margin...and be less influenced by strong rev growth ...the challenge here is to demonstrate good quality (low volatility) earnings growth...that would justify rating (perhaps a little higher than here)...but I need to see evidence of that traction

one I have never followed...tant pis!

..

...over 50p to buy atm

according to my est of next year's EBIT, Dan...EV is c£7 ...FCF is volatile with largish movements in working capital

that was the narrative if I recall...yep...ramping up/investing for growth ...interesting to see trading statement to see how they got on

just providing some thoughts...every little helps lol?

sadly true...we should all wish him well...dabbling with shares (esp AIM shares) can feel v cruel outside of a rampant bull markets like the 1980/90s (happy days)...and it is easy to get too emotional, and attached to favourites ...I like your attention to the moods of the markets, the supports and resistances...and agree they are vital to successful trading of almost all the shares on AIM ...but not for my core holdings ...except gbo lol ..gn & gl

yep, buying and selling and keeping the Jolly cash mountain lol ...here, I am in no rush to rebuy...happy with my modest/diminishing free carry ...still worried about FCF, management of receivables and the limited cash for working capital growth as billings pick up ...did they raise enough at IPO? Does their business plan/growth cry out for more cash??

u cannot be serious Blue??...pls reassure me that that poxy trade was not a rush of Blue blood to the head lol...surely even you must have a min punt size north of £250???

nope...there I disagree with you...but you may have your fun in the ST... ...ultimately the sp is about weighing not voting ...the truth will out lol

yep...better to focus on earnings attributable to shareholders and compare that with MCAP or cash adj MCAP... ...that earning last year (2013) here was lower than prior year on proforma basis...the growth in revenues have not translated into earnings growth ...the historic p/e here is in the range 12-20*... depending on how generous you are re cash ...what is next year's earnings...and hence implied p/e??? ...whatever reasonable forecast one makes, the cash adj forecast p/e @GBO in 4-5* range is v low by comparison

valuation is a complex art as you know...was 49p cheap here? was 62p cheap for SYQ?... well you can argue it either way.. ...relative to next year's earnings forecasts (or at least Jolly adj fag packet versions) for either SYQ or GBO, XLM ain't cheap ...but it's for all of us to decide...and punt ...(the minority interest stuff is less subjective...it's basic financial analyst training)

arise within the Group structure ...it is complex stuff... ...most "companies" say BP that sound like one entity are shorthand for a v complex group structure often with tens or hundreds of intermediate holdco located in a tax efficient way across many different countries with many different partners or minority interests... usually with an ultimate holding company ...and usually that ultimate holding company is the listed entity to which the shorthand applies ...the non-controlling / minority interests are probably (but it may not be this simple...there may all sorts of weird partnerships or other legal arrangements) 10-40%, say, owners of either intermediate holdcos within the overall group structure or of the actual operating subsidiaries ...so the idea that the minorities get paid dividends "first" is sort of right...as the dividends are paid up the group structure towards the ultimate holdco...some of these dividends leak out the minority interests ...some of the EBIT/PBT/Dividends is not for your benefit...it is for the benefit of the minority interests (who may have markedly different economic drivers/payout to XLM shareholders as a whole...Charlemagne Capital was a striking example of this a few years ago)

here, hh??

This a share for which analysis of cash adj earnings may be more rewarding than EBIT of PBT...cos you shareholders don't own all the profit here...some of the profit generated by the group is for minority interests (owners of shares in subsidiaries of XLM holdco)

now we are really of opposing views lol

yep

yep...puzzlin' why folk selling at these levels