Member Info for jollyspeculator

Although some members of the Opec oil producers' cartel are pushing for production cuts to take the oil price back to the $100-a-barrel level, Saudi Arabia has let it be known informally that it would be unlikely to push for a cut in production to boost prices even if they fell to $80 a barrel.

Malcy (Malcolm to you and me) may still be proved right ...a highly leveraged play with weird sp movement (non movement at times)...heavily traded imv ..if this goes a lot lower, may offer terrific opportunity...or if sp mojo comes back (but will that happen before Saudis stabilise the oil market?...which may be some time if their intention is to damage the US fraccers and discipline their OPEC "friends")

cheap if "trends as we begin the second half indicate some improvement and, if sustained, we expect to show growth in sales in the underlying business by the end of this year." & madrox integrates well

will load up if oil prices stabilise

so 14p not a bad shout ...partly the debt ...partly the overstated imv concerns around declines ...partly concerns about costs...and hence margins in weak oil price environment (you have to be careful calculating these costs...to include failed drill and upfront costs...and discount full life costs...not just the highest margins at the start of production)

patience...COMS is poor comparator imv (propped up by PIs' hopes)

on QE in US is inflation/currency crisis...we are a long way from that constraint imv ..but taper is still on the cards cos of perceived strength in the US economy ..(if I were in charge, I would be tempted to continue to QE for ages..at least until China/eurozone less fraught)

The Saudis now have an opportunity to "rest" their giant fields particularly Gharwar..Instead they seem to be brandishing their "oil sword" by keeping production levels up..Only a few weeks ago Saudi Aramco talked of slashing production by 400,000 bpd to keep prices buoyant but have failed to do so,As I have posted on previous occasions, If the price of oil falls below $60-$70 the majority of US shale drillers will just mothball production, They need oil above that price to be in profit..No other region can match Saudis lifting costs of $4 a barrel.If the US halts oil production supply/demand will take the price of oil up again.. As for the derampers and gloom merchants, Bring it on.. I wont filter you, I have a really thick skin and I also know,Despite all your hype and kidology,at the bottom of your black hearts you know that this will soon turn good.. Posts "Bristling with venom" don't affect me..Fire away..

tide, ?saudi's flexing their muscles v both USA and other OPEC producers...saudi may want other OPEC producers to rein in supply / bear some pain this time around ..naga...eurozone stimulus is essentially Frau Merkel's call...many have called for Deutschland to spend spend spend as key part of eurozone adjustment

fascinating few weeks ...about as broad/news heavy as any time in my life ...we haven't heard about the PIGS or Ukraine China's territorial disputes with Japan for a while despite these pressing (intractable) concerns bubbling nastily ...just so much stuff

30-40 ...LT av ...substantially higher than 15-20 yrs ago ...all depends on OPEC in particular saudis

“The timing of Iran’s price cuts makes the price war more and more probable,” Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said by phone yesterday. “Iran is fully aware of the direction of and the mood in the market. Given that we’ve seen consecutive cuts, this would seem to be some kind of action and reaction.”

yes interesting ..Over the past 64 years, real gold prices have averaged $544.91/oz (in 4Q2013 dollars), and real crude oil prices have averaged $38.85 bbl. This means that an ounce of gold will typically buy about 14 barrels of oil.

Falling oil prices create enormous pressure for energy producers. As oil analyst William "Bill" Herbert of Simmons & Co. International writes this morning to clients: "While some energy analysts/specialists have been cautiously extolling long-term value, they have little if any current sponsorship from generalist portfolio managers, as the X factor in energy has become too complicated. Not surprisingly, the perspective is uniformly defensive." Bill notes that only 30 percent of U.S. producers have hedged 2015 expected production, meaning they are highly exposed to oil's 20 percent decline since July. He says they will face significant cash flow compression, and he believes negative earnings estimates "of some magnitude" are coming.

markets are going to be v choppy for foreseeable ...150-180 should be nice loading up zone ...sub 150 would be wonderland imv

rading Update 10 October 2014 Holders Technology plc ("Holders" or "Company") has been notified by a major PCB supplier that the distribution agreement between it and the Company will be terminated on terms to be agreed during the next financial year. In the 9 month period to 30 September 2014 this contract contributed approximately 10 per cent. of group revenue. The loss of the contract can be mitigated by alternative strategies and cost reduction measures, however the timing and value of these actions is uncertain and there may be a material impact on the performance of the company in the financial year ending 30 November 2015.

I can see that other plays even worse off lol..... where do you see the "non OPEC constraint" floor on WTI/Brent? ...I suspect it is US$20-40/bbl ...enjoy yr w/e

or gross margin is a misunderestimated (tks Dubya) issue here ...and for any fraccing play ...as WTI falls to 70, 60 or lower (US$/bbl), profitability is severely compromised ...my bet is that this (and other fraccing plays) are at the high end of the global oil cost curve...so the price of oil can easily fall way below a comfortable level for caza

Given how highly rated this still is, may retest 50p...ready to load up down there

still reckon sub 2 a decent chance...but I luv rgs