Member Info for jollyspeculator

so which metals / companies look attractive to you?

we are all in the dark about china..stats suspect, market is nowhere near a standard capitalist one imv (so why folk thought WTO makes sense with China The Infinite Nothing only knows??) ...competitive devaluation was huge theme of 1930s meltdown....and heading off further global meltdowns was inspiration for WTO and other Bretton Woods institutions during WW2... ...ironic that almost coincident with (though not directly caused by) the wider adoption of WTO that something dreadfully bearish (though unlikely a 1930s rerun) may be on the cards

hny..good post as ever ...yep, wish I had bought into oil storage...what a great play (by GS among others) ...gl with 2016...suspect it will be pretty bearish

oil is still in rel early stages of correction, no? Cost discussion was dangerously wide of the mark in 2015: confusing costs that countries chose to bear (bloated public sectors, subsidies etc) with marginal cash operating costs (which remain lower than poo imv) ... History suggests gold has plenty of downside as well ...some other commodities like iron ore may be closer to bottom (but I need to see serious closures to feel bullish)

hny... ...related... ....as you know better than most, asset markets rarely work on clear/easy logic (otherwise everyone would make money...and this is largely a zero sum game in which wealth passes from the ignorant/unlucky to the wise/lucky) ...free US,euro and £ (ie most money) has distorted all asset markets...and the transition away from zirp to a less distorting macro policy will likely be v painful after so many years (my guess...no one knows...we haven't seen anything like this).. ....but better now (bravo, Janet)... than when a serious crisis of confidence in the US hits

rio is pretty cheap...only headwinds esp iron ore oversupply, sp trend, likelihood of overshoot, 2017 earnings downgrades and wider market bearishness prevent me switching sides (hold measly 280 @ v low effective average from past lucky trading and buying late Friday) ...I feel compelled to hedge my bearish position overall with significant exposure to euro, some long stake in ftse 100 etf, some individual ftse companies like rio and a fair few tiddlers... ...painful cognitive dissonance but does allows me to sell down etf and individual ftse plays into relief rallies ...as you posted before, each to their own ...gl

cause and effect often interweaved... ...yes, chinese demand for commodities helped fuel the bubble...but speculative/non physical buying on basis of the supercycle narrative contributed/compounded/supercharged it... ....now the reckoning.. ....esp for oil where super profits 1973-2015 (with a few blips eg later 90s) enjoyed by saudi and gulf states were buttressed by saudi willingness to restrain production in belief that oil supply was limited so the only way was up ....when the reality dawns that demand growth and then demand itself is limited, POO will be splattered as saudis pump for all they are worth...which is still plenty lol

success of fracking and end of supercycle nonsense.. ...the era of 100+ was the oddity, not now imv ...if you recall, in the 90s, glut was the key narrative..then (simplifying for dramatic effect) someone (@GS?) coined supercycle, BRICs (now down to I lol) and voila the new normal of endless demand growth for all commodities spiraled out of conrol

sorry to sound sceptical...more convincing if you posted immediately when traded..ofc shares go up and down...easy in hindsight lol

would makes some sense as jmb...also charts suggest sp of c15p may off good support

The Year of The Bear

so strong? ...good to see reasoned posting, tks

cant stop others making mistakes lol

interesting how yr post is full of boasting outperformance and I/me.....ego issues make you see ego in others ...if you manage to double yr money each year, perhaps you shd set up shop as a pro? Let's others dd yr claims...I'll report back on yr 5 pf "winners" for 2016...v much doubt they will do that well, but u r the genius lol

gromit

so you are essentially clueless..no assessment of fcf or vlk's competitive position or JH's past . ..extremely sceptical of yr outperformance...no doubt you are hiding yr losses...but whatever ...clearly what goes down, sometimes comes up...that's the extent of yr "research" ....you better cross yr fingers and hope yr luck holds

culturally...massive employer, tentacles throughout J'burg business community and historic baggage in SA (as I know first hand from working with SA companies in and around SA post apartheid). ....if lmi supported in RI by SA govn, then why not jewel in SA crown??

hny; I agree demand is not going to solve this...it's a supply issue ...not a specialist (but worked as a pro...at different times as advisor, jv partner and principal/PE investor... on many major league aluminium, copper and energy financings back in the day ...80s/90s... so have some insight on cycles...before nonsense of supercycle lol) ...my memory of aluminium as the USSR fell apart was that it collapsed much further than any of us expected...similarly by mid 90s the major north american and european copper miners I was JVing and investing with were extraordinarily pessimistic about long term... ...my take away is that the bearish processes (exacerbated by china data being so poor) are likely to play out far longer and more painfully than analysts (most of whom are too young and inexperienced to have been involved seriously in a proper cycle yet)- or wishful thinking PIs - imagine ...until major closure actually bite (perhaps fortescue), I am likely to remain bearish

why would majors buy high op costs? and assume high debt? ...agree with graham some further asset sales likely...the issue is how much will they raise in current weak and weakening M&A market ...RI increasingly likely imv

are you serious?? PIs mounting a lawsuit? You've been watching those tv ads for personal accidents lol ..pls get real; I am not aware of any successful PI lawsuit against an Asian tiddler ...hny, all