Member Info for jointhedots

jasehem - you've totally missed the jist of my comments and I believe other posters viewpoints. I'll give you credit that you are not intentionally being condescending as there are a lot of short fuses on the BB, but it does come across as such .

They are not views from short -termers, rampers, looking for a quick killing, they are views of shareholders who have trusted the BoD through many disappointment and for many years.

You also miss the point that the alleged reason for this market is the selling of RH and possibly other disgruntled shareholders; the reason they are disgruntled is directly traceable to BOD ACTIONS which left major shareholders furious (research it).

Finally your point "The boards focus is to run and grow the business", are you serious "grow the business" - do us a favour, they raised the money to do it, and have failed to execute the plans years late. Much of the expected growth this year has disappeared into next year.

I'm not for selling, having stumped up a lot of money and spent a lot of time researching potential I believe I have earned the right to be critical, at the same time it does not mean I don't see great potential. I can complain precisely because I don't care about the day to day price I want the BoD to grow the business at as pace to enjoy success before I die of old age.

One might allege:

Another senseless session, with sellers and MM's ruling the day.

No news, or at least news that the market cares about, so I fall back back to my longstanding mantra that the BoD has the power to stop this, any time they want - they simply don't care enough to do it. Stop blaming the wrong entities, it's our BoD that is employed to steer us though the market pressures

I'm not suggesting I have the competence to be Chairman, but I contest that if I where or if many of the shareholder where entrusted with the job this problem would at least be addressed. If he is dealing with this there is no evidence of it that I'm aware of.

I've invested in well over a hundred companies over 3 decades, many on AIM, some fantastic, some with pretty pathetic management as it turned out but never one with management as slopey shouldered as this. Where are they? Only JW has an in-country operational role. What are they doing for their remuneration?

I'm really at a loss to explain why they just roll over and capitulate to what is IMO clearly a distressed market for Amerisur shares based on their actions/inaction, it really does beggar belief, do they actually want a strong share price? It's a serious question, do they?.

With reference back to earlier posts - I believe this can only be intentional unless gross incompetence is involved,

I would vote to sack all three of the core directors in a heart beat owning shares here is a flaming nightmare.

I sincerely hope they come up with the goods next week but I'm not holding my breath, there's appears no fight in our BoD in respect to creating shareholder value.

Reuters are reporting that Colombia's constitutional court has ruled that local votes (referendum ) cannot block oil and mining projects.

The new president said he would deal with the barriers to investment and this is top of the list IMO.

A raft of projects have been slowed or abandoned because of this and it surely must have effected the progress of Amerisur with some of the licensed blocks.

This opens the gate to big international investors and most interestingly the court case was brought by Mansarovar Energy (ONGC and Sinopec), so has this been holding ONGC back from committing big money to CPO-5?

Also, perhaps more unlikely, but have Amerisur been waiting for this judgement before releasing their RNS!

IMO this is significant and the SP should be rising now, surely it opens the door to major investment and reduces risks considerably.

.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-colombia-mining-court/court-says-colombia-votes-cannot-block-mining-oil-projects-idUSKCN1ML35V

Money- you raise some interesting points "accidental or contrived???!" , there is a third possibility "incompetence".

I have given a lot of thought to these issues, as I have been absolutely shocked at the jaw-dropping failures of the BoD and equally the incredible resistance of many shareholders to recognise it and kick against it.

There is nothing accidental about any of this, I have on a number of occasions suggested the possibility that the BoD may not care or do not care enough to end the problems (they think it's acceptable) possibly because they are blinded by an alleged feud with RH.

The only other explanation I can think of is absolute incompetence - take your pick!

I don't for one minute think they want to or could take this private, II's are diverse and bought into a listed company at much higher prices, there is no big shareholder that could swing the vote and I believe it would take 75% of shareholders.

The kiss of death for any AIM investor and dream solution for crooked directors is a director or major shareholder loan, that is not the case here and if, EVER, suggested should be fought tooth and nail if secured against assets. For those that don't know the lender with director support takes the company into pre-packaged administration and sells the company to the lender and directors for a pittance. IMO it's fraud but it's legal. Fortunately, there is no such risk here with a healthy cash balance.

Anyway that brings me to another theory for the delayed RNS, I've been harping on about for the last couple of weeks that maybe II's have let the company know they have had enough and expect some action, perhaps the BoD are working on some new appointment(s) or strategy update.

We are approaching year end and what this BoD desperately need IMO is some credible rationale to explain away the year without accepting failure and responsibility for it. Remember they claimed success last year by tweaking aspirations and outcomes when it was clearly contrived, IMO they may try to change the expectations before the year closes, If they leave everything as is the year end is unsalvageable, if they announce a rethink that allows them to claim some success then they can perhaps bluff shareholders with lashings Jam at yet another AGM.

Just maybe an II or two has woken up and told them the next AGM will be a day of reckoning unless they pull their finger out - I really hope so.

All good though if they admit the drill programme is a failure (they've not yet done so) and come up with a new strategy.

Something is strange, most likely waiting for something to happen.

If something has happened then they are obliged to let the market know (that doesn't mean they will though!)

The fact they released 2 positive RNS's already in October mean if they have supressed good or especially bad news it is IMO unforgivable, a breach of AIM rules.and they know that it would be disgraceful.

So I reckon it must be something that is developing, maybe some imminent decision or test outcome, who knows, but it certainly doesn't feel normal.

IMO it is more likely to be something good and something bad as it's harder to justify delay in the latter. We are now within spudding period for Indico-1, or test results for the T-Sands.

Yesterday, I posted that China was looking for other suppliers of oil due to a trade breakdown with the US and that Sinopec may be quietly looking at potential buy targets, they have huge financial clout. Perhaps in Colombia as Sinopec are already present, partnering with ONGC.

As if to order there is an article published today, which confirms the US/China breakdown.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-Turns-Its-Back-On-US-Oil.html

Doc- I recall checking Hargreave Hale already had a shareholding as did Cannacord when they took over.

What was really interesting is that recall they had shares in one of our peers in Colombia (though I can't remember which one or find the reference now, maybe they've sold).

More pertinent now is that Cannacord has buy rating on all 3 of our main private peers in Colombia - they are clearly very bullish on Colombian oil sector.

https://www.smarteranalyst.com/brief/gran-tierra-energy-gte-gets-a-buy-rating-from-canaccord-genuity/
https://www.smarteranalyst.com/brief/parex-resources-receives-a-buy-from-canaccord-genuity/
http://www.markets.co/geopark-gprk-receives-a-buy-from-canaccord-genuity/

Are partnered up with several partners in Colombia including Geo Park who own the block llanos-34 just to the north together with Parex, the Goe Park tie up this year was to look for investment opportunities in Colombia and the whole of South America. I suspect they may be looking at blocks in Ecuador together in addition.

As Geo Park are the without doubt the most savvy operator and have had extraordinary success in drilling the Llanos, I believe they are the most likely buyer of CPO-5 and may even take some of ONGC's share to become operator, they will really make it pay and develop at pace - ONGC are quite literally hopeless IMO

However, from the perspective of an Amerisur shareholder. we'd be stark raving bonkers to take an offer from anyone before at least 3 more wells are drilled, it could be a very valuable asset and we don't need to sell.

If I were GC I would have approached ONGC asking if they wish to sell their share - that would at the very least make it clear there is no point trying to sweat us out of our interest and perhaps get them drilling a bit faster.

We still may be spluttering from one delay to another and misfiring all many front but out peers appears to be progressing at a great pace , notwithstanding Gran Tierras great success over the last few year (started as a similar sized company to Amer) now worth many times Amerisur market cap, other operators have reposted very interesting well updates in the last couple of days.

Most notably Fontera who have announced a new oil field in Llanos 25, as I recall this was a very expensive well targeting significant oil. there's no indication of net pay or flowrates but at 385 feet gross of light oil, looks very interesting and highlights the Llanos potential

"The Acorazado-1 well, in the onshore Llanos 25 block, encountered a number of potential hydrocarbon zones in the target Mirador formation reservoir. Drilled to a depth of 15,470 feet, the well found 356 feet of gross thickness sandstone reservoir.

Also Parex have announced:
"Andina-1 exploration well to a total depth of 17,500 feet and encountered potential oil bearing reservoirs in the Une, Guadalupe and Mirador formations. The Une Formation had a final production rate during the test period of 2,545 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") and 8.7 million cubic feet per day ("MMCFD") of natural gas with a water-cut of 2%, prior to being shut-in for pressure build-up analysis. "

Though these discoveries are not immediately adjacent to CPO-5 or any of our block it illustrates how other companies are having success and flow rates can be very significant - there appears to be so much oil in Colombia with established techniques that locate them with great accuracy, most wells are successful and I'm convinced there are some very significant finds possible in CPO-5 well beyond the current drilling programme, we've simple not explored the south of the block - we are just crying out for a partner with a commercial drive that will simply get on with it.

http://www.kallanishenergy.com/2018/10/11/canadas-frontera-makes-4th-discovery-in-colombia/
https://www.marke****ch.com/press-release/parex-tests-2570-bopd-from-andina-1-guadalupe-formation-2018-10-10

Bigsmoke - whichever way you look at it the SP has been trashed,I really don't know if this is a low point based on historical measures but it feel like a nasty experience to me.

Incidentally the earlier speculation on the subject is misleading, dilution was accompanied by a large influx of cash with a placing at 25p.

The institutions that took part including new investors have been well and truly shafted IMO, for $35m, anyone buying in now is basically getting in at half price when the promises associated with the capital raise are now set for delivery. I recall Michinoko didn't take part, but think of it from the viewpoint of all big shareholders, if a dividend was to be declared - pissed off would not begin to describe the anger of major shareholders who stumped up the cash to be distributed.

ONGC's partner in Colombia is one of the world's premier oil companies, Sinopec tends to go under the Radar but China are apparently also looking for new sources of supply in South America, they are having problems with supply from Venezuela and US as I recall.

Samroy - clarified confusion we didn't have in the first place, thanks for your effort though.

Tomorrow is the day GTE should lists on the FTSE, perhaps Amerisur will release the RNS to coincide, I think II investors that have never looked at Colombia before may start to notice Amer if they research GTE. It's got to be good for Amerisur to have the investment case for Colombia championed by another listed company

We're in Indico-1 spudding territory now, there may well be an update on spud date or even an indication of what Amerisur is going to do with its rig in the coming weeks.

Have a tender out for well services (drill bits) for Sol-1 and Aguila-1X and one contingent well.

First point it would seem Indico-1 is all sorted in respect to services, great indicator that it is divorced from the other wells and is imminent.

Looking further back, ONGC initially tendered for a drilling rig for 3 wells and 1 contingent together. Then slowly separated Indico-1 - my point (previously raised) is two fold, first that there is a good possibility that there are 2 rigs contracted, if so we have a chance of drilling 2 wells this year, if not it is extremely unlikely we will have anything other than Indico-1 completed.

The second point is that because of the ludicrously slow pace of ONGC they could end up having to retender for loads of services. The latest tender bears this out IMO (see extract below), they now need to get on with this programme or face more delays. NH in a recent article allegedly suggested 3 wells are possible in CPO-5 this year - ye of course they could!

A sensible observer might suggest that it is impossible and the assertion is painting a deeply distorted picture unless there are 2 drill rigs. Simply adding times together to execute dependent elements of the programme should make this obvious to even the dumbest observer that 1 rig means 1 well in 2018 based on the speed of ONGC. 2 if you believe in miracles and they'll work at breakneck speed.

This is from the recent tender do and precipitated this post, note the commencement date, evidently they forgot to update it, illustrates nicely the slippage from this super proactive outfit:

"4. START OF OPERATION
Tentative date of commencement of operations in the SOL-1 well is in end of June 2018. The exact date of mobilization of different services covered in the bundle will be intimated by ONGC-VL."

Docisacoc - it certainly is unsubstantiated and quite possibly BS.

Samroy - You can all make your own mind up, but I'm not subscribing to anything just to locate it's source.
This is typical of twitter where things presented turn out to be at best misleading.

Leas - and I never said you did - don't take thing personally unless they clearly are - if I criticise someone it's made very clear who and why. We're on the same side, and no one would be more pleased than me if RH is sold out, but I don't want to see anyone duped.

If evidence is presented to back up the information then we can take is seriously

Why is it confirmed he is sold out?

The chart does not confirm that at all, what is the chart, no date where is it from , has it been doctored?

There is no RNS required to confirm RH's organisation is gone.

Exercise caution to unattributed information.

I wouldn't concern yourself with the precise date of the update, you can't read anything into a delay of a few days - the CEO could be on holiday, Chairman watching cricket etc, and unable to approve content of an RNS, anything including waiting for news.to include.

No signal can be inferred.

I wold like to see that confirmation that the flow rate for the recent well has remained stable and they intend to plod on with additional wells, but they constantly surprise, in respect to production my guess is it will be flat or slightly up - at this stage unless production collapses it is really a bit of a side show.

The main event of the year, drilling Indico-1, is imminent.

Yes Put 12, one of the indigenous group feel they where not consulted regarding seismic - most likely a storm in a teacup, every operator in Colombia has hassle.

We have no way of telling how important this is, Amerisur have operator permission, as it's only ,according to Amer, 20%of the block that's my take on it shouldn't matter to much, I can't be bothered to study the detail. it appears ongoing but I suspect they just have to navigate through this and cough up some cash eventually.

Amer seem to have responded with a request to correct the article as being full of errors

I really don't worry about these thing unless it stops production and we have no production in Put 12

Translation:

https://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=es&u=https://www.elespectador.com/noticias/medio-ambiente/amerisur-no-hemos-perdido-una-batalla-juridica-articulo-816768&prev=search

BigBiteNow - one might allege your assessment illustrates nicely how far beyond disgraceful it is that out BoD have not addressed this, they have allowed the company to be decimated, shareholders enthusiasm and finances crushed when they know full well what's going on, going on for years, and can stop it simply by instigating a modest share buy-back to balance the situation they allegedly precipitated.

It is beyond disgraceful not to address this problem , let it fester, and yet ask shareholders to approved a share buy-back clause and award directors share options(for achievement of course????), If they'd employed the large cash pile on exploration this year it could be forgiven, but as it is it is basically the equivalent of putting 2 fingers up to shareholders.

Disgraceful does not begin to describe this obscene situation - yet shareholder persist in blaming RH, RH is not making money from a crashing Amerisur SP, but some have been drawing substantial wages throughout.

For years now Amerisur has been the go to company in the UK if you wanted to invest in Colombian oil and has had no other company to benchmark and judge against in terms of value - not ant more come Wednesday.

Gran Tierra are taking a UK FTSE listing effective this Wednesday, I suspect their presence will put Anmerisur into context for investors and provide potential for a much easier M&A route for the two companies (why are GTE doing it?). It will now be much easier for GTE to offer their shares in way of a settlement from Wednesday and leave a very strong company at the end.

If merger the combined company would be profitable and have a combined cash pot of around $200m and total available financial strength of over $500m and most important a decent/credible management team.

Again I wonder if our finance director, betrayed concerns in recently saying shareholders are supportive, IMO shareholders will take an offer from a can do buyer is the price is high enough and our directors know it

They have allegedly been much more successfully recently and are present in Putamayo and Llanos, since getting rid of Dana Coffield (we gave him a job).

If they wish to takeover Amerisur's assets then I believe they will need to give a substantial premium, I recall double SP value for a previous all share transaction of a reluctant target..

Also of interest in light of recent post they say they do not intend to pay dividends and any cash will be directed back into expansion - exactly what I believe should be done with Amerisur - so no more calls for a dividend please.

Potentially this opens up a whole new ball game for Amerisur IMO, so very good news IMO

.
Link to notice:
https://www.grantierra.com/upload/event/20/2eafab518ee1/2018.09.28-gran-tierra-announces-publication-of-prospectus-and-proposed-admission-to-trading-on-the-london-stock-exchange.pdf

and here's the prospectus, very long read, but with some interesting bits and piece for the very patient. lol:
https://www.grantierra.com/upload/event/18/4df95d722e26/gte---prospectus-28-september-2018.pdf