Member Info for jointhedots

Looks like a significant bit of kit, if all the stuff around the framework is required then the crew are going to be very busy getting ready before the end of the month.

http://www.estrellaies.com/en/flyers_2014/equipo_2029_eng.pdf

Ammu123 - Brent POO is just below $80/barrel not $75.

I think to slight weakening of the price is being used as an excuse to batter down the SP of many oil companies at the moment. The sad/annoying thing is that Amerisur's SP never rose with the oil price in the first place so the down trend is totally unjustified - at the current SP oil companies are for the most part doing exceptionally well having reorganised themselves to operate at much lower prices. Amerisur can most likely finish their development programme with an oil price sub $40/barrel now, we are in a very strong financial position.

That doesn't matter though, the unchecked (wrt Amer) enemies of shareholders only need the slightest of reasons.

More patience is required I suppose, unfortunately my patience is now wafer thin - back to the old chestnut that the BoD are ultimately responsible and can change things

Fevertreeman - great post. the truth is always powerful.

Docisacoc - the management can say whatever they wish and come up with perfectly plausible reasons for everything and anything, but the fact is it is their programme, none of us produced it and if I had O would be truly embarrassed now if not ashamed - lets not forget the programme was years in the making with some aspects supposedly due to start in previous years..

Jux - I don't actually want JW sacked there are another 2 who should go first if needs be and make way for directors that could offer support to JW before determining if he should also go.

The underlying (root) problem is not drilling, drilling failures are the latest manifestations of a problem that goes back to fundamental management of the business.

Someone needs to take ownership of the problems and ensure they don't repeat, sort them, that's all I ask I really don't care if they all stay in post. I'll stick with them another few years as long as they deal with issues - my biggest complaint is that as there is no recognition that they ever fail in anything so nothing gets addressed. If JW is not performing as expected the Chairman should sort it out to ENSURE IT STOPS and provide help as necessary. But, there's no point giving them more time unless they improve performance, can a leopard change it's spots? Lets see some evidence before supporting them.

Juxtapose - Whenever the BoD gets criticised you come in with unwavering support - forgetting the depth of the various reasons for criticism and suggest its unjustified often based on a single misrepresented premise that doesn't stand scrutiny or that we need to let things play out - its ridiculous.

You say:
" but is simply is unrealistic to sack the CEO every time drill bit results are not as expected (and he should be given credit for going the extra distance and checking out the whole stacked play, which is first class data for further interpretation of the area)."

Give us a break - they've been in charge for 10 years, they're not building a pyramid for god's sake, failures are inevitable and suggesting we are stupid enough to ask for someone's head because a well doesn't strike oil is insulting, but success is a pre-requisite for a CEO. Drilling 1 well out of a huge programme was the failure in this case as I pointed out before the drill bit even started to turn (eggs and baskets!).

What about the over a dozen wells that they've failed to drill, what about the failure to drill wells in previous years on time, there is a long list of failings.

At long last, just over a week left to spud in October, I'm expecting that to be a significant catalyst for the SP if successful.

I also expect a second well to be completed on Plat before the end of the year, assuming the current analysis is favourable. If so it is likely to be targeting a much better location than the Pintadillo-1 well - so all to play for there as the flowrate and accumulation size in totally unknown.

My viewpoint has been very clear for a long time, in the absence of clear effort from the BoD to sort out the sentiment problem, i.e. the underlying failings that are causing it - one or more of the core team, GC, NH or JW should be sacked.

IMO they are the root cause of the problem and do not currently appear to be the solution - no further research will change what should be patently obvious to every shareholder.

This BoD would not have survived to toddle along like nothing is wrong, , enjoying the fruit of our investment money, if the company was listed on the main market. Tough questions would be asked of each other, of each of them by shareholders and independent non-execs.

Whatever your view I'm sure we almost unanimously agree something needs to improve.

Just checked GTE's share price - no movement according to the quote, and just released articles report that GTE are expanding in Llanos 34 and have been granted extra acreage

"Colombia's National Hydrocarbons Agency has agreed to extend local drilling firm GeoPark’s footprint in the Llanos 34 block. GeoPark said approval by the agency extends its footprint in Los Llanos’ 34 Block by 3,872 acres. The oil and gas firm said it will drill 10 new wells at its sites in Colombia, Argentina and Brazil while it continues testing in five new fields. The extension was granted following an increase in production at Los Llanos 34 to 1,600 barrels of oil per day by GeoPark."

So the incident last week appears trivial even to GTE, a quick search of last 24 hours on google shows no new stories about the attack

On the subject of expansion, it's interesting they are granted new acreage to bolt on to ll34, perhaps Amerisur haver also applied (or can apply) for more land.

I saw the articles on Saturday and decided to leave it till Monday to post about it.

But as others have highlighted it, lets be clear it is nothing to do with Amerisur and is one of several pipelines that have been targeted in the last year in the North and West by ELN rebels.

Furthermore it sounds like a minor transport pipe rather than a main GTE pipeline. For Clarity GTE use a pipeline like the OBA into Ecuador but theirs is further West in the territory of ELN rebels and the nearest of Amerisur's blocks is Coati (I assumed the continued neglect of Coati was due to the continued unrest though our BoD have never stated there is a problem) where there are no operations.

Though one of the articles suggest it could be FARC, it really could be anyone, anyway IMO it's not a concern except that some investors may misunderstand its significance. This weekend there where also 7 mining personnel killed in Venezuela by ELN rebels from the North of Colombia. Point is, its part and parcel of operating in S America, it's a country full of drug traffickers and bandits in certain areas, those of a nervous disposition should really not be invested.

Yes we all know the share price performance is tragic, but back in the real world of investment justification, the case for Amerisur goes from strength to strength, sooner or later an alignment will have to take place or Amerisur will be taken out by a competitor, they also have strong cash balances and in contrast competent BoDs.

One way or another I cannot see this situation persisting long into 2019.

Anyway, I've just read an article apparently published today about the investment case for Colombia, it is not about oil but gives a good insight into why you should invest. Entitled: "Pro-market president is set to lead Colombia into an exciting new investment era" it is well worth a read

Since the new pro-oil president came into power:

- new licence bidding arrangement introduced
- project killing referendums stopped.
- ELN rebel just called for a ceasefire as he takes a very hard stance.
- investment confidence is soring.
- Commitments made to improving investment case
- Commitment to improve tax regime
- Commitments to crack down on corruption.
- Drive to deliver improved infrastructure maintained

He is pro-business and I believe money will start to pour in to the country, maybe even some new entrants to the oil sector.

https://www.worldfinance.com/banking/pro-market-president-looks-set-to-lead-colombia-into-an-exciting-new-investment-era

Docisacoc - we don't know if they put a pump down the hole, they are testing it not trying to get maximum production from it - it's real value at this stage is providing information about the accumulation and therefore helping in the design of a drilling campaign.

That's what I read the explanation in the RNS to be indicating. the chances of it being the best location to penetrate the accumulation are probably near zero yet is flowed at near 600bpd - all good IMO.

Your second point, I agree but would go further they may at this stage not know for sure where up dip is and will be looking at an integrated approach with a number of complimentary well - just sticking a well to the high side is very inefficient.

So IMO it is all good as far as we know at present and now we also know the analysis to decide a course of action is only a matter of weeks.

Yes, a good update with no nasties, but also very predictable with a predictable market reaction totally divorced from the content.

A few points of interest in there, the 3 monthly updates will provide more meaningful news and our Canadian peers in Colombia also update quarterly so it is merely a sensible change.

WRT the Pintadillo-1 discover, variance in production is to be expected and they are probably simply alerting those that simply assume pumping at full bore to be more realistic.

There are two other interesting comments, they have now put a timescale on determining an additional drill programme of 4 weeks which means we could be drilling again off the pad before the end of November as the rig is on-site.

Also that the "Initial results indicate that the well is located low on the new structure." They have made a similar comment about Mariposa-1 being further to the dip side than Indico-1 and stressed that the prospects to the high side as far superior if the oil persists. It's obvious really, and as they have not discovered watery oil at the base of the structure with good pressure and flow, it bodes very well for high quality and low water cut in the field.

I thought it might have been at the top of the structure as I assumed the N-Sands location was in a high spot, so IMO it adds to the potential for further good news .

Finally, I still don't believe GC went out there simply to look at a slab on concrete and a few bit of infrastructure - I still think there is something hidden and perhaps negotiations of some sort. A further thought is that perhaps our BoD where showing an interested parties around - so they where hosts rather than guests. Analysts. investors or potential bidders maybe. Or perhaps he's going to some official ceremony for the new pumping station and negotiate the next phase - his ambassadorial role!

I'm looking for the mid 30s say 35p or more before I'm convinced the value of the proposition presented by the BoD when they raised money at 25p/share is even remotely realised. That was my original aim and still is, I thought it would happen quicker though. lol But until like everyone else I have no set price written in stone, just an aspiration. I react to the news

opulentia - 12p barrier - I flaming well hope not, I see it at a temporary anomaly, that will eventually be seen by those that don't take the opportunity to buy/add as a huge missed opportunity.

If 12p is a barrier, our BoD are toast as is my investment.

Docisacoc - hope you're right.

It looks like power packs are on site but there are no pipes and no one doing much work, I appreciate these things can be set-up very quickly - but the site images just do not inspire confidence.

I know I'm out of step with many with Rosy Coloured spectacles on here, but I must point out that apart from being pleased our team has made it onto the CPO-5 drilling sites I'm less than ecstatic about the progress.

Taking them one at a time - where's the on the Indico -1 site? Am I missing something, shouldn't there be a rig partially in position and built on site, am I missing some of the phots? It looks nowhere near ready to spud anything, unless they mean pick a few spuds out of a nearby veggi patch. Looks like an early November spud to me, please show/tell me I'm wrong!

Mariposa-1 looks fine, though no sign of any workover preparations - so that's not happening any time soon.

Sol-1, basically a cleared site, no chance of that drilling any time soon, the read across is that there is only one rig and the wells will be drilled sequentially, hence having hoped I was wrong, there will only be 1 well completed this year, at best. Our FD's alleged assertion that 3 wells where programmed for this year looks like absolute BS.

So not pleased as we don't know why they are there, lets hope it was to press ONGC or buy them out.

That might go some way to explaining why the RNS is delayed, it needs to be carefully prepared and approved - if they are in-field attending to some important business then it takes second place.

Furthermore, I'm damned sure GC hasn't gone out there just for a photo opportunity, perhaps there is a deal being done, maybe operational expansion or Amerisur buying a larger interest as I damned sure he hasn't gone out there and posed only to subsequently announce the asset sold!

For me the photo.rules out any imminent sale of CPO-5 and also any major operational problem elsewhere, as he surely wouldn't he pose in a congratulatory setting if the wheels had fallen off elsewhere, he's nobody's idiot wrt PR and the optics for shareholders would be terrible.

So for me the photo tells us more then sim.ply what a wonderful find Mariposa-1 was and presumably remains, very good post Docisacoc.

Maybe they are there to make sure ONGC spud Indico-1 - to beat the buggers into submission. lol

wrt ONGC, the link below explains the plight the company finds itself in after the Indian government has raided it's finances and continues to attempt to extract money.

It's also worth noting that on top of the issues mentioned in the article ONGC have just lost a court case over the Sakhalin field in Russia and I believe share of the settlement will be approximately $240m, ouch.
They are also reportedly being pressed to sell overseas assets

With all this in mind, it is conceivable that ONGC may actually sell out to Amerisur or some other party, I suspect Geo Park (who are looking at opportunities with them) would love to get into the bock.

One last thing from the article - I often wondered why ONGC are partnered up with all and sundry on their projects, well apparently this was mandated by the Indian government, though it's unclear if it applies worldwide - perhaps this explains why we got a 30% shot and may in fact prevent ONGC from buying our share if the rule still applies.

https://www.newsclick.in/how-modi-govt-exhausted-ongcs-cash-reserves-and-drove-it-under-debt

hoss2 - you may be right, but they can't pick and choose what news they release, as long as they don't release anything they have a defence, a ropey defence.

However, if they release a production update whilst deliberately holding back any significant information from the market that could also be released, it is a very severe breach of the market rules and a betrayal of their duties as directors.

Imagine anyone selling/buying on the basis of a production update, only to see blockbuster news that was available at the time appear shortly after - they'd be totally pisse* off and justifiable feeling robbed with potential legal recourse.

IMO something is preventing issue of the update - can't be the actual production figures, good or bad they could be released.

Which leads me to a conclusion that it is something significant operationally or strategically.

Maybe an update on the recent well or drilling plans or something to do with last weeks court ruling in favour of ONGC - investment in CPO-5 could now accelerate significantly. Or perhaps we have had a potential bidder for the whole company or CPO-5 waiting for the outcome of the court case, that ruling would definitely change things for potential purchasers.

Loads of potential positives and also a load of potential negatives which are only limited be one's imagination.

Wol - you need to dig a bit deeper, in truth it may be fair to allege DT doesn't give a damn about the Journalist, the noises he's making are to placate genuinely concerned Senators and others whilst preserving arms sales.

He and his family are allegedly knee deep in deals with the Saudis' according to some US commentators. best buddies.

He'll only do the minimum he is forced to and stay friends with the Saudi's because of money and they counterbalance Iran, allegedly the US intelligence services already have information on what happened whilst the president pretends he doesn't know.

Many journalists might arrest that he is to some extent responsible having pushed the notion that the press are "the enemy of the people, giving tacit approval to attack for despots around the world.

If it effects Saudi oil production in the short term I would be very surprised.