Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Are you suggesting shareholders should turn up at the AGM tomorrow and just sit there winking up at the BoD and hoping they'll wink back? Absolute nonsense that good news is being kept back. If anything bad news is being held back. CB does not hold back good news.
I will be at the AGM. The problem is not Ukraine, it is the drill results. How can anybody think, based on the RNS announcements this year so far that the resource is likely bigger, or even as big as what we thought it was going to be 6 months ago? CB has completely stopped talking about an imminent 2MT or decision to mine, whereas previously he couldn't shut up about it. This stuff about not revealing a poker hand too soon is a convenient way of trying to buy time. If the results this year supported further and material increase in resource but the company were keeping quiet then I'd accept that explanation, but when results have not been good it makes it harder to believe. Of course CB is not going to come out saying he's disappointed by the results, so its up to investors to digest the data and form their own view. Anybody who says they have not been disappointed by this years results are only fooling themselves.
Howezap, the results did not support his optimism, because he gave impression that he expected us to hit 2MT or decision to mine by around mid-year and said he did not expect that to slip. So why did it slip? IMO it is not because Ascot is so interesting, but mainly because the results achieved were not good enough for us to declare 2MT or decision to mine. I believe his comments were based on assumptions with regards to additional copper at Ascot and the area in between, but neither of these materialised into anything of substance. What has happened is that RC appears to have closed out in all directions sooner than expected and results at Ascot, while interesting, have not helped build substantially on the copper resource. Therefore on to phase 3 to help build the case that what we have (below 2MT but with low average grade and cut off) is economical due to higher certainty over what can be achieved sooner at shallower depths. The plan was never to close out Ascot in all directions, but to leave it open for the buyer, but IMO we are now being forced to prove it up to demonstrate that the whole project is viable (and it may well be). I stand by the view that the additional drilling at Ascot has been underwhelming as it has failed to show much of interest outside of the original discovery hole.
Why would he deliberately mislead? Doesn't seem like he was looking to offload shares, nor was there a placing. Just overly optimistic over what could be achieved imo and the drill results this year failed to support his optimism. I noted he did mention in one interview that a higher SP would help when it came to negotiating a sale price so perhaps he had that in mind, but provided the news is good and they are being transparent with the market over what they have then the SP should reflect accordingly ahead of any negotiation.
"I'm wondering if this is an assumed grade for the really useful parts of the pit and that most will not reach this high a grade".
Yes, because none of the assays received this year support those levels of average grades, away from the really useful parts of the put.
Steve, one could just as easily make the argument that if you had been overly optimistic and unrealistic with expectations provided to investors, would you come out and announce this admission in a bad market, or would you hide behind the bad market excuse to keep a lid on it and buy time while you try to find more resource to substantiate previously made claims?
Baffles me how people are attributing SP to market environment and impatient investors.
Yes CB has overpromised and also in an interview suggested we were already there or just about there with the 2MT, but assays this year have shown that areas of promise did not yield anything of note. I believe CBs comments were accounting for expected outcome of assays and upcoming holes. Yes Ascot is open (although most recent RNS suggests not in as many directions as hoped), but we expected RC was going to add a bit more yet the boundaries were found in all directions a little bit too quickly. Sure this is a milestone required to close it off and complete the model but I expect comments about 2MT were made assuming there would be more growth. An argument could be made that Ascot is actually worth less now than it was 6 months ago given results of recent holes. CB suggested initially that they would put a few holes in it and leave it open for the buyer, but given disappointment at RC and failure to improve materially on previous Ascot drills we’re now stuck having to prove beyond doubt that the combined resource is of commercial substance.
Some suggesting we can hold tight and wait until the market environment improves or Copper goes up, but for how long and at what cost. The reference to other projects suggests we may raise at some point to take on the next big thing, which then dilutes any upside at BR. We also know with small caps that most projects shifted out of focus don’t amount to anything.
Awful interview. I hate the way these guys are never held to account for comments and statements made previously to the same interviewer. CB is just being given a platform to say what he wants, without any difficult questions. Clearly Zak does not want to give reason for the likes of CB to refuse future interviews, but this is just frustrating for shareholders.
Seems to me Racecourse just does not cut it on a stand alone basis. Further drilling to take place in phase 3. My expectation is that any potential sale to AA or another party will be reliant on the sum of both prospects, neither of which, with current data are economically viable on a stand alone basis. Previously I suggested 1.5MT at very low average grade for RC, I'll be pleasantly surprised if the phase 2 upgraded resource model shows something better than that.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-28/anglo-american-s-new-boss-sounds-warning-on-future-copper-supply
“I genuinely don’t see where all of this copper is going to come from at this point in time,” Anglo Chief Executive Officer Duncan Wanblad said in an interview in London on Thursday.
Err.... Bushranger? Come on CB, they are begging for the next opportunity!
I've never come across a junior miner where investors think the SP reflects equal or greater than what they think its worth, so unless there's a purchase of the Australian assets its hard to see how the SP would reflect anywhere near what people perceive its worth to be. A few months ago I think most here expected 2MT+ at decent grades was almost a certainty, but not sure that's the case any more. Of course Ascot *may* turn out to be something better, but likely it will take a lot more capital and risk to find that out.
Seems like a positive RNS.
Suggests to me that they will be putting the resource together with a 0.15% CuEq cut off.
The 320m referred to in the RNS is 0.16% CuEq, but just 0.11% Cu and 0.06 Au g/t. Presumably 0.16% Cu without the gold would have been a much better outcome?
I assume the resource estimate for RC will come out at or above 1.5MT, but at quite a low grade and cut off. Given the additional capex to get through so much more rock, how sensitive could this be to both the level of interest and value attributed to the resource?
Still feels to me we are really scraping the barrel to declare something that may on the face of it sound very positive, but that doesn't actually have anywhere near as much economic value as we'd all hoped and had been indicated by CB.