Woodford1 May 2018 19:17
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Capita update - Woodford Investment Management Ltd
3 months ago
I am not trying to make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear – this has been a poor investment, but it is one that has the capacity to become a significantly better one from here. There is much work to be done to turn the business around, but there is a clear plan and the project is underway. Discussions with all major customers have gone very well as have conversations with the Cabinet Office. The collapse of Carillion has catalysed the whole outsourcing sector to rebase its relationship with the Government, which also recognises the need for change, to reflect a fairer balance between risk and reward. (By the way, they are both outsourcers but the only other similarity between Capita and Carillion is the first two letters of the name.)
I would go as far as to say that the business will be in better shape at the end of 2018 than it was in 2016. It will have infinitely better leadership, a stronger balance sheet, better cash flow, more conservative accounting policies and a lower pension deficit.
The mistake I have made, albeit I didn’t know it at the time, was in owning Capita in 2016. It is not a mistake to own it now. And so, I will not be compounding the previous error by behaving in an irrational and valuation insensitive way now.
Whilst the stock market remains totally preoccupied with momentum and insensitive to valuation, we should all expect the environment to remain as challenging for the Woodford funds, as it has been since early summer last year. I will underperform in such market conditions as I have done before. Equally, however, we should expect rationality to return in an unpredictable way, as it has done always in the past. When this happens, share prices will adjust to reflect reality in the economy and in the businesses that thrive and prosper within it. In the meantime, I would be doing you, my investors, a massive injustice if I was to abandon the investment discipline that has guided me for 30 years in this industry.
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