guardian10 Feb 2019 07:49
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Has the AA turned a corner, or is it on a road to nowhere?
Simon Goodley
This week’s trading update will show whether efforts to jump-start the debt-laden company have had any success
Sun 10 Feb 2019 06.59 GMT
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AA mechanic assists with a flat battery.
An AA mechanic assists with a flat battery.
The AA has always considered itself the most staunch of organisations.
Take one of its earliest episodes, three months after its foundation in 1905, when a member called Herbert Johnson was accused of exceeding the 20mph speed limit. One of the association’s scouts, William Jones, swore an oath that the motorist must be innocent as he’d followed him on a bicycle at a speed of no more than 15 or 16mph – but, irritatingly for patrolman Jones, the court didn’t believe him. Johnson was convicted and Jones was arrested and charged with perjury. The AA then staked all of its funds and risked bankruptcy trying to get its employee acquitted, which, thankfully for Jones, it did.
It is not quite clear if any of the AA’s current crop would be prepared to do a stretch for a member now, and certainly patrols providing questionable testimony is not mentioned on the current list of members’ benefits. Still, more than a century later, the tale does seem to have relevance, at least as a strained metaphor about how the actions of some speedsters can cause the AA financial discomfort.
The company was floated on the stock market in 2014 and overloaded with billions of debt by the private-equity boy racers (finger salute out of the driver’s window to CVC and Permira). They re-engineered what should have been a simple runabout into something resembling a Reliant Robin towing a Winnebago – with the AA now valued by the stock market at £525m as it drags along £2.7bn of debt.
Sales from what the company calls 'roadside' – essentially its recovery service – account for 84% of revenues
Astonishingly, a bunch of City fund managers bought the sales patter, only to watch the price of their shiny new vehicle slump as soon as it had edged off the forecourt.
They have been regretting this impetuosity ever since: “star” fund manager Neil Woodford’s chunky stake has contributed to his fund continuing to have a shocker, and the AA’s debt will be raised again this week as it updates the City on current trading ahead of full results in April.
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Full-year profits are expected to be about £74m on revenues of £960m, and the City won’t have much patience if there is any indication of a slippage to those numbers.
The shares, which floated at 250p, now change hands for around 86p, yet there are plenty who reckon it could get worse from here, as they are among the most shorted on the London stock exchange. Blackrock has a negative p