Member Info for johnchucka

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpecGA7Xs9I

http://www.thedrive.com/opinion/22332/uberpocalyft-now

Semicast Research@semicast_res

SE: If the company's system were to be used in all car models in the existing platforms of the five [OEMs] where [DWs] have been communicated, the estimated value is...at least 2,000 MSEK over the product lifecycle.

Semicast: technically true, but v. unlikely. Assumes 100% M/S

Semicast Research@semicast_res

Recent financials from @SmartEyeAB & @seeingmachines are solid. Big picture trend is OEMs adopting L2+camera DMS, NOT L4/5. Deployment of mobility services (Waymo, Uber et al.) unrelated to trends in mass mkt. Sensor+GPU+SW costs too high for mass mkt adoption in next 10 yrs.

Semicast Research@semicast_res

Takata experience shows why it makes no sense for either @seeingmachines or @SmartEyeAB to be bought by a Tier 1 or OEM. Independence would be best route to success and grow into major IP supplier.

Early @SmartEyeAB DWs are misleading as @seeingmachines was in exclusive contract with Takata. This ended almost 18 months ago. Now straight battle between SE & SM. News flow & contract wins over next 6-12 months will be critical.

Rickard lindqvist@lindqvest

Human Factors Design Guidance for Level 2 & Level 3 Automated Driving Concepts -

https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/documents/13494_812555_l2l3automationhfguidance.pdf …

The guidelines are simple -
#DriverMonitoring is a crucial feauture to see if the driver is alert and ready to take over the steering wheel.

@SmartEyeAB @seeingmachines

https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/opinion/2018/08/12/self-driving-car-bill-needs-amending-safety/938439002/

Seeing Machines@seeingmachines

Fatigue is a factor in about 40% of fatal accidents in the US each year, according to @NTSB. @seeingmachines' leading driver monitoring tech can help to reduce risk from tired or distracted drivers, and keep roads safe globally.

http://www.capebretonpost.com/wheels/fatigue-factors-highly-in-large-percentage-of-fatal-accidents-233174/?platform=hootsuite

Rickard lindqvist@lindqvest

Gartner hype cycle for connected vehicles 2018 -

DMS have gone through 3 of 5 phases now.
In 5 years DMS will hit the market as a mainstream safety feature in every newbuilt car.

Bright future for @seeingmachines & @SmartEyeAB

Also Apple stand out here, listed amongst those companies one would expect in 'Already Signed Up for 2018'

https://automotive.knect365.com/tu-auto-detroit/

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/fully-autonomous-cars-could-be-fantasy

Fully autonomous cars may never be allowed on many public roads, according to BMW’s special representative to the UK, Ian Robertson.

Semicast Research@semicast_res

WW light vehicle prod. in 2025 ~110MU. If one T2 gets 90% share for auto DMS IP & DMS is in all LV, at US$20 per vehicle the revs are about US$2bn. That's per year. Excludes trucks, coaches, buses. There's big money on the table here and no one seems to be looking. v. odd.

Semicast Research@semicast_res

OEMs believed to use @seeingmachines DMS IP: GM, Daimler, BMW, Ford, Byton. For @SmartEyeAB Audi, BMW, JLR, Chery. These are major OEMs working with little known DMS IP providers. There is a reason for this: they are the technology leaders.

Semicast Research@semicast_res

ARM has >90% share in smartphones. Companies that use ARM IP: Apple, Broadcom, Intel, MediaTek, nvidia, NXP, Qualcomm, Samsung, TI. ARM was so far ahead in power efficiency vs. performance that it made sense to license ARM IP rather than try to dev. in-house. Sound familiar?

1/2 For clarity, @seeingmachines & @SmartEyeAB capture DM "core signals" such as eye-gaze, blinks, head position etc. which feed to higher layer applications for HMI & safety. @Veoneer1 LIV2.0 is an early example. Veoneer (T1) and SM (T2) are partners not competitors with LIV2.0.

Semicast Research@semicast_res

2/2 For techies, the OSI 7 layer model is exact analogy. T2 provides "core signals" at lower layers; T1 provides higher layer applications. In time ALL T1s likely to cease R&D of core signal capture & focus on higher layer dev. That is their value-add. Think ARM in smartphones.

Semicast Research@semicast_res

Current autonomous driving tech is about equivalent to the Apple Newton (1993). It was good as a paperweight but not much else and was dropped. Apple finally got it right with the iPad (2010), 17 years later. Suggests L4/5 in 2030s.

Semicast Research@semicast_res

How do autonomous driving simulators account for complexity theory? Roads & highways are complex dynamic systems. Wrong model = wrong outcomes. Market crash = lost money. Prototype AV crash = lost lives. Issue is bigger than billion dollar tech companies in battle for supremacy.

Semicast Research@semicast_res

2/2 "and then, when a market price somewhere, somehow got out of line, the computer models told them". Semicast: the models ignored complexity theory and conditional correlation. Long-Term Capital Management almost sank Wall St. in a trillion dollar hole in 1998.

Semicast Research@semicast_res

1/2 From p.12 "When Genius Failed": They downloaded into their computers [GPUs] all of the past bond prices they could get their hands on [data]. They distilled the bonds' historical relationships and they modeled how these prices should behave in the future [AI training].

Semicast Research@semicast_res

Anyone interested in complexity theory should read Simply Complexity (Neil Johnson). Anyone interested in what happens when you build a model which ignores complexity theory, it's When Genius Failed (Roger Lowenstein). Are you paying attention autonomous driving industry? #LTCM

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Mitsubishi-Fuso-targets-2025-rollout-of-highly-autonomous-trucks

Company beats rivals to Level 4 system with big push from German parent Dailmer

Semicast Research@semicast_res

Image suggests Panasonic AIS and Mitsubishi are working on camera-based drowsy driver detection.

https://www.japanautomotivedaily.com/2017/10/27/panasonic-ais-mitsubishi-electric-contribute-to-autonomous-driving-development-part-3/