Member Info for john46

"Mrs May has made no friends but in her defence she has done what the vote said while trying to keep the nutters on "

I can't believe I've given you a rec , always a first I suppose

My daughter had Retinoblastoma when she was 2 yrs old . She is now at Uni studying Maths and Spanish . In the intervening time span , she is a veteran of an annual 30 mile speed March with her brothers and father ( Palma to Lluc), and has climbed most Monroes in Scotland . Disability is a partial mindset .

Sir ! yourself having served in Afghan , surely wouldn't allow adversity to dissintivice human beings from contributing to Society .

You obviously can't see the writing on the wall .

Hard Brexit is coming to our shores .

Thanks , simply observed someone has the same travel routine as yourself , that's all .

ATB

Does 1 Fairford mean anything to you ?

Think back to 80's private sector .

Initial quote for channel Tunnel , a private venture was £1 BN . Money soon ran out , and Mrs T was approached to keep project moving at tax payers expense . The Lady said No , No , No . The private sector completed that feat of Engineering for £3 BN . Had Gov got involved bill would probably have been £12 BN .

The bigger the Public Sector , the greater the misallocation of scarce resources . France and Italy are but just 2 examples .

"BB, I take it from your numerous posts that you’ve never studied economics. c90% of learned economists know this is a bad idea for our economic future but it appears you are too blinkered in your own thinking to look at both sides...it’s called critical evaluation, a real strength of any good economist! Looking forward to your almost instant reply ;-) ATB, "

We were told Gordon Brown was one of the the world's top 10 Economists . We know he left UK bankrupt "no more money left " . It doesn't say much for Economists .

3 yrs ago I had my Corporate Manager slamming meeting room table stating , "50 Economists say our base rate will rise , I want you to fix/hedge " . Base rate dropped during length of Facility .

Your average Economist is a left wing Keynesian with no imagination of his own . No wonder the worlds countries are burdened by unsustainable levels of debt being serviced at 0% base rates . They never learn their lessons .

Repeating the same experiment again and again , hoping for a different outcome is a sign of madness . That sums up your average high profile Economist .

Just be patient bud , only 8 days to go .

",what makes you so upbeat about the UK economy?"

Economic growth of 1.2% without the aid of QE . Sterling depreciation , without the currency manipulation of QE or lowering of base rate. MMs are doing UK a great service without realising it , despite most of them probably being Remainers

"One of last year’s best-performing hedge funds says the “trade of the century” is to buy gold and sell stocks as risk assets are due for another meltdown."
"It’s only a matter of time until the bearish bet pays off big, according to Crescat Capital LLC. While the Denver-based firm has only about $50 million under management, it has a history of outperforming the S&P 500 Index -- with its Global Macro Fund returning 41 percent last year alone. Now the investment company says it’s ready to capitalize on an end of the economic cycle as indicators warn that a recession is imminent in the coming quarters.

The consensus is pointing to a recession in 2020 or 2021, Tavi Costa, a global macro analyst at Crescat, said by phone. “We think it’s a lot closer than that and we have a number of macro timing indicators that we look at.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-19/top-hedge-fund-says-buy-gold-sell-stocks-in-trade-of-century

Worth a read !

Agree with your last observation . As I see it Lloy fundamentals are almost identical now as to a yr ago , yet the price rise has to be sentiment driven rather than technical . This in turn will cause added volatility when variables (your cause and effect) go against sentiment .

I wouldn't advocate buying at this price for the next 10 days . It reminds me of the 4 trading days following the murder of Jo Cox . Buy the rumour , sell the fact ?

My calculations are from c 73p to c 53p . If the fall back then cannot be attributed to Brexit , you're intoning Lloy was overpriced imo.

Stonking recovery indeed , sentiment induced again.

"Could also do the opposite and rise 26%"

We know it's going to rise 26% from this level , but what we don't know is the timeframe .

Following Brexit Ref lloy dropped 26% , should that be replicated in 10 days time it would bring us c 48p from today's price .

It looks like we are heading for a hard Brexit , so logic dictates we should see 40's again .

Fellas,

Thanks for observations , but only copied 2 paragraphs from a Bloomberg essay that I thought were pertinent to Lloy . I did place them in inverted comas.personally the whole report is worth reading

ATB

"Since John Bercow’s dramatic intervention, most traders are betting on a long extension to the Brexit process, which would probably see the pound continue to trade within a tight range — that is, without much volatility. The bookies agree. According to Oddschecker, the odds of a no-deal Brexit is a wide 6/1 and an extension of the departure date into at least 2020 is pretty much even money. This seems a little complacent, given that the EU’s 27 other member states need to be unanimous on agreeing a delay. Without one, we’re staring at Britain crashing out without a deal at the end of next week.

Dark Horse
The chances of a no-deal Brexit have risen slightly as March 29 deadline nears

Source: Oddschecker, Bloomberg
The markets might also be under-pricing the chances of May’s deal making it through. She has been a pretty disastrous steward of the Brexit process, but no one can doubt her almost masochistic determination to finish a task. "

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-03-19/brexit-delay-betting-on-john-bercow-looks-a-bit-complacent?srnd=premium-europe

Worth a read , make your deductions

Judging by those statistics just posted , it looks like we have the most efficient police force in Europe.

.At 31% Of foreign nationals in Germanys prisons , the sooner we shut our borders the better , only way to do that is to leave EU . Germanys problem with only get worse with time , further enhanced when they let more former Yugoslav states in .

12 days and a handful of hrs to go .

"If the dollar gets dumped the Euro is the reserve. "

To the best of my knowledge , ECB have no Gold reserves .Euro is kept afloat by overworked printing presses backed by thin air . The Chinese CB is hoarding Gold like it's going out of fashion . The Euro is a worthless reserve currency .
https://moneyweek.com/499249/how-much-gold-does-china-have-a-lot-more-than-you-think/