Member Info for john46

"The UK recorded a trade surplus of
£12.2 billion with Ireland in 2017.
UK exports of goods and services to the Ireland were worth £34.0 billion (5.5% of all UK exports), while imports were worth £21.8 billion (3.4% of all UK exports).
The UK recorded a trade surplus with Ireland in both goods and services and has done every year since 1999."

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8173/CBP-8173.pdf

Our friend BTB might be able to expand , but as far as I know from speaking to my neighbours when I go to Majorca , most Politicians in Spain from 90's onwards have served a prison sentence , corruption .

As long as EU keep bribing Spain , they'll be in thrall to them . When our contribution stops ? Ooooops

Electronic money is worthless . I do appreciate ECB exchange their loans/bonds for physical assets , but these Securities are going to Depreciate .

They haven't learnt lessons of Japan in 80's . It took me 8 days to read the "house of Morgan " , history of JPM , 700 pages , Piermont Morgan was a genius . I now understand why you were against "the new deal " .

ATB

You and I have done our contribution to spread enlightenment . It's down to our peers on here to make their own deductions .

As for Serbia and co joining , territorial growth with no Economic benefit will just enhance their downfall .

ATB Sir !

Muchas gracias .

Ya tengo una casa en Mallorca . Hablo 4 lenguas .Mis padres me izieron sufrir. Lol.

Cuando fuiste a Mallorca , hubieras vista mi casa de Santa Barbara.

ATB

"The markets have been supporting Italy’s sovereign debt market in a prisoner’s dilemma ever since Draghi stopped buying them in December.
Those most exposed to Italy’s insolvent banks are now buying to keep prices from collapsing without ECB support.
How much longer do you think that can go on if the euro continues to push lower, building losses even faster?
Draghi just let the market know he doesn’t have any more weapons."

Who in their right mind would want to take on such a role ?Japan Mk2

You have been my little Irish pal since I first started communicating with you !!

As for being a bear , first started warning when Lloy was in 80's , now 62p , I'd like to think my observations have been vindicated .

Living in Madrid , you have no reason to have sleepless nights , never been there , but beautiful City from what I've read/heard , might make an Easter City break one day .

Peace be with you !

ATB

Thank you for objective reply !!

I am also bearish on the market and world affairs . Different to the norm on here !

Chill out bud , what will be will be , let our respective leaders bang their heads together and attain a suitable compromise amicable to both parties .

ATB

"It was those who could not cope with someone who expressed views that did not reflect they own that had me banned."

I express views that don't match mainstream on here , yet haven't had to change alias .

You're an intelligent fella , do some self analysis .

It will certainly be interesting to know what those BOD plan to do with those monies . Perhaps they know something we don't know .Obviously !lol

You've told us you save 75% of your earnings . Now , be a decent /patriotic Irishman and help prop up BIRG Share price with those monies . They'll certainly need your help

Don't think they've repatriated those monies bud.

From memory , think Trump mentioned it as unpatriotic a few months back .

The top-five cash holders are Apple, Microsoft, Google-parent Alphabet, Cisco Systems and Oracle. Those five held a collective $594 billion, or slightly more than 32% of the total U.S. non-financial corporate cash balance as of the end of 2016, Moody's said. At the end of 2015, those companies held $504 billion, or 30% of the total.

Apple accounted for $246 billion, or 13.4% of total corporate cash in 2016, up from $216 billion, or 12.8%, in 2015, Moody's said.

We know why this is happening. If you're an American company and you make profits outside the US then, generally at least, you only pay US corporate income tax when you bring them back into the US. So, many companies don't. We might think of some reform to the tax code to deal with this, perhaps we'll just shrug about it. But it's important to understand that, whatever some might say (Hello Elizabeth!) this is not dead money.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/07/19/us-corporate-cash-pile-1-84-million-says-moodys-doesnt-matter-a-darn-not-even-apples-stash/

I can't imagine these Liberal Corporations coming to Trumps aid when his hour of need arrives economically .

19 days to go .

As mentioned on a previous occasion , you're not very good at reading between the lines .

“This time, the bubble is on corporate balance sheets, as firms borrowed money at historically low rates. Instead of productive use, much of the borrowing went to share buybacks. This did nothing to cover future debt-servicing costs.”
I’ve written about this at length. I think corporate high-yield debt and leveraged loans will be the next recession’s subprime mortgage loans. This could create quite a severe liquidity crisis.

“While many focus on high yield, the leveraged loan market is in a bubble of its own. A key risk for this year is a debt refinancing “tsunami” as trillions in debt has to be rolled over at higher rates.”
That “tsunami” could actually cause a recession.

Share buybacks and capital spending will be curtailed as cash flow falls, and wages and debt-servicing costs rise.

A 35% decline in stocks would be typical for this kind of recession, though Rosenberg thinks some non-cyclical and defensive names could outperform."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article64354.html

The bull's stepped on a nail

One of the best stories I recall from Mrs T was at a sit down function with her cabinet .

Waiter asks Mrs T "vegetables ma'am?"

"Yes , they'll have the same as me. "

Priceless !

“Stocks appear to have peaked last fall. Average lead time from market peak to business-cycle peak is seven months.”
Maybe. Then again, a solution to the China trade war and a solution to Brexit coming at roughly the same time could cause a market melt-up and new highs. On the other hand, Doug Kass thinks the market is getting ready to roll over and is increasing his short exposure.

“Fed policy changes are coming too late. It already overtightened, as it did so often in the past. Rosenberg thinks “neutral” Fed Funds rate is no more than 1.75%, so the last two hikes were missteps.”
Again, maybe. I agree the neutral rate is historically low, but it may be here. This is something we will only know for sure in hindsight. If 50 basis points can cause recession, then this economy is extremely weak and is likely to enter recession anyway.

“Recessions historically begin when the unemployment rate climbs 0.4 percentage points above its cycle low, which this time seems to have been 3.7%. So 4.1% unemployment, when it happens, should ring an alarm bell.”
Completely agree. Small increases in unemployment tend to coincide with the onset of recessions.

“The recession will probably be mild but there is no correlation between a recession’s severity and how far equity markets decline.”

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article64353.html

P/E ratios at ~18 times in US .Minor wobble in earnings will set of "off risk mode" .2% possible upside V 50% correction , no brainier to me .

"Another ominous signal is flashing in the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which fell for an 11th consecutive session Friday to cap its longest streak of losses in 47 years. Because they form the infrastructure on which commerce is conducted and provide clues about the strength of the economy, weakness among trucking companies, shippers and airlines is often viewed as an early-warning sign for the broader market."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-08/the-10-trillion-stock-rally-gets-reality-check-from-slow-growth

Far too many Global variables converging simultaneously .

Fleccy ,

In Business and politics , reputation is paramount . TM has told us we're leaving in 21 days . I can't imagine after what she's been through as Home Secretary and now as PM that she'd want to be remembered as the one who betrayed the British Electorate . Personally she's pulling a blinder , covering all options before handing us a Hard Brexit .

You told us you tend to your garden , as someone on £1k / day does . I have a gardener .

Keep digging , BTB looks up to you