The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
I think this needs a overhaul of lending criteria/terms, as has been undertaken at Amigo (ie. Via the Reward Rate brand) that requires time, it requires liaising with the regulator, so on this basis MCL is a fair bit behind Amigo.
Is it in a better position than Amigo at this point. I would argue, no. Because it's not even in the same position and it's going private...
Looks like a value trap, if I ever saw one...
No wonder spreads 30%+, MM are preying on the greedy, who will end up with some contract notes for use as toilet paper.
Hopefully 10p+ can be achieved tomorrow.
Highly doubt there will be any dividend here, the aim is capital appreciation. I am of the opinion that JV is able to find better ROR opportunities, than the average investor, so happy for the business to retain the cash and redploy accordingly. Not pay it away to short-term traders, here to make a quick buck.
It's frustrating that the SP never holds on this. Surely this is one of the most undervalued businesses on AIM, with a low number of shares in issue...
Maybe one day it will realise its true value.
The LS valuation is based upon a historical PEA completed a few years ago.
Assuming they now believe the mine is bigger, the life of the mine will be longer and there is an expectation commodities will rise over the forthcoming years, this could indicate a much more favourable PEA, than the historical valuation. Ascendant are pulling together the new valuation for end of July.
I saw a PEA for Neves Corvo (expected to carry similar economics to LS) with a PEA based on LOM of 13 years and a NPV of €180m (8% DR). This was off a PEA completed around 4-5 years ago.
It makes you wonder what LS could now be worth, if it has the similar economics...
Expecting a monster increase in the NAV from March.
Should be closer to 25p than 15.
I watched a video of the Executive Chairman mentioning wanting to increase liquidity, by unlocking the variance in SP to NAV.
Maybe a placing at a premium to the current Share Price?
This situation reminds me too much of the Debenhams scenario, where the Directors pushed the business in to the arms of their lenders, knowing their time was up.
I have a feeling the BOD here are capable of doing something similar to prevent JB getting in and save their own skins.
It's a shameful situation, because if JB really wanted access to the business he could take a stake anytime, or even table a takeover bid.
I really hope for the best, for those invested, but I learnt a big mistake from Debenhams and have decided to trust my gut instinct on this occasion and sell up.
GLA
I believe there is certainly short-term value for someone to take and break Saga. You only need to crunch the fundamentals to realise there is disparity between the current share price and the real value of the business.
I feel the BOD should act in the interests of shareholders though, if they receive an offer for the business, it should be put to the shareholders.
Obviously worried about their cash cow being slaughtered, as seems to be the case with most of the Directors of listed companies ...
Long-term I like Saga.
Take over offer of circa 30p rebuffed by the board, I believe Mark Wilson had involvement with the take over offer (former Aviva CEO who did a solid job) he doesn't strike me as someone who would put his name to a dog business.
I think the important thing is holding on to travel/insurance operations, reducing debt which the placing and RI should support.
Clearly BOD need to explain why the TO was not put to shareholders despite being +100% premium to the SP at the time. All will hopefully be revealed.
GL to those invested.
I sold my entire holding on the spike this morning at average 23p.
However, i only did this on the anticipation of being able to buy in back below 20p.
I like this business... i like the fact it is diverse and I think it will be well place for travel once Covid subsides. Customer loyalty, grey pound, premium luxury holiday offering etc...
A billionaire son of the founder, is not going to throw money at a broken business. The foundations are there. It just needs a few tweaks. I hope the board rejected the 33p on the belief this was significantly undervaluing the future potential of this business.
Good luck to all still invested!
Dropping out of the 250 was my only concern in the short-term ! Looks like I am a few years behind and the market indicator could do with an update.
RE - Goodwill, yes underlying profitability looks ok, albeit following a downward trend (no doubt due to the downward pressures of the competitiveness of the insurance sector)
If i am not mistaken Goodwill, reflects the premium to NAV paid for acquisitions, therefore effectively, the tangible loss is made at the point of the acquisition. But not realised on the balance sheet until an impairment takes place.
Ie. Saga over-valued an acquisition.
I am not a big fan of the things on the BS that can't be kicked.
Maybe a FTSE 250 reshuffle could mean index funds having to sell out of SAGA. Therefore further downward pressure. Then again... SAGA isn't the only 250 listed business that will have taken a hit as a result of the pandemic.
I am holding and if the management team are half decent this should be a decent recovery stock.
Unfortunately, I think the risk here is of a take over being tabled - prior to a breakup.
GLA
I have seen reputable businesses reject complaints but still provide redress, to stop the consumer from referring the complaint to FOS. To avoid the £500 FOS fee.
This is a culture issue, with the tone being set at the top.
At the end of the day, the complaint should be investigated and, if Amigo is at fault, the consumer should be put back to the same financial position they were in, prior to the issue occuring. (IE. Return loan funds to Amigo, less any payments made by the consumer) The 8% simple interest, being paid back to the consumer baffles me, because there is an argument Amigo could have lent the funds to another customer and charged 50% APR, so there is an opportunity cost to Amigo, not just the consumer.
The board need to grow a backbone and not just roll over. I'm hoping the new guy, who people seem to have high confidence with, is not another "Yes man" to the FCA.
RE FOS - Consumers who provide false information, to obtain a loan are committing fraud. So of course FOS should reject all of these types of complaint, in favour of Amigo. The £500 case assessment fee will still payable by Amigo though. Which of course, is a joke.
The whole idea surrounding complaint redress is to put the consumer back in the position they were in prior to the incident occuring.
If a person obtains a loan, spends this and then complains that they find the loan "unaffordable" Amigo should be entitled to repayment of loan proceeds, less any payments made by the consumer. Surely.
Better still, get the guarantor to repay this back. This is why the Amigo model, is so strong.
What redress can a consumer be entitled to? I personally don't think anything.
As the man from the film Goodfellas wisely said "F**K you, pay me"
Anyone who understands accounts, will know the 120 mil provision is non-cash and hopefully the company assessed this prudently, which would mean a worst case scenario for the payouts required.
This looks like a typical big bath provision, ready for the new guy to take the reins.
I certainly can't understand why the CFO would throw money at shares, if he has concerns about the going concern of the entity.
You should research how many other companies have had the rating of their debt downgraded due to the uncertain economic outlook. Clearly Deramping, trying to get in on the cheap, despite being a "Direct line shareholder" with no interest in Saga.
On a fundamental basis, this is significantly undervalued. When cruises restart, this is going to re-rate.
I certainly wouldn't be suprised to see a take-over.
Good luck to all those invested, both new and LTH.
Any individuals who follow Blue Nalu on Linkedin, will be aware that they are looking to commence commercial production of their cell grown fish from 2021. ANIC, hold a decent holding in the business.
I find it very peculiar that the day after this announcement, ANIC release a statement of intention to take the company private.
Unfortunately, this transaction feels like daylight robbery with such a paltry tender offer price on the table.