Member Info for JoeSoap

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/205340/hurricane-energy-tipped-for-re-rating-as-first-production-draws-nearer-205340.html

Yes, it should have been cc.

Part of the post at 15:59
" I've been watching the trades and it looks like he sold the 300k shares he bought around the 9.4p mark for 10.35p and is now starting to do his negative thing again on CASP hinting of no news until 2019 blah blah blah. "

Noted the recent recovery here, and the exchanges!
Wondering if this is due to leaks or more likely elapsed-time speculation?

Have read the RNS's, but have a couple of questions. I note the evolving words of the Vision acquisition, ("Pantheon's objective is for the acquisition to be on accretive terms for its shareholders." seems to have disappeared.)

Do Panr have first refusal on the Vision holding under the jv terms, does anyone know?

If not, would any potential farm-inee (and BG's beneficiaries) get a better deal buying out Vision holding and then squeezing Panr for more to cover their share of the Capex and take-over operatorship?

Any views??
TIA

They would have been the same last Wed/Thurs.
;-)

According to FK(Advn), CC got a better price earlier this week, but now ...

And today this IPO
https://www.investegate.co.uk/aston-martin-lagonda/rns/announcement-of-price-range/201809200700163694B/
is priced £17.50 to £22.50
...

Perhaps they are too busy with this..

https://www.fladgate.com/2018/05/aim-companies-must-comply-with-a-recognised-corporate-governance-code-by-september-2018/

".. AIM companies should not underestimate the time taken and level of input from directors that might be needed to consider their corporate governance practices and make the necessary disclosures on their website."

And we can see the need to update the website to 2018 status

jimo
joe

SK - beat me to it...

Was about to post this link.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/mexicos-next-government-starts-oil-195837977.html
for the risk averse...
But how much is it worth on the SP today?

I believe that there is something that they have yet to tell us re the AM. It was not on the 'critical path and did not suffer a late start, but it seems to have a late finish.
As I understand it, it is BW's responsibility, having taken a lump sum payment.
However, there has been a suggestion on here that the 'de-bottlenecking' action may be ongoing. That would be an interesting development as it is not scheduled until after the first-phase GWA drilling results, but we know that gas will limit the EPS. So, if the action is being taken now, imo it will all be at Hurricane's expense and they suffer the delay.
But that is not so critical now as the GWA is a parallel work programme, with little interdependency, and the GLA has been readied, and they could then avoid or limit down time in the field and then get Spirit to pay their bit when Phase 2 is go, with the pipeline.
We await the sea trials "expected to commence by the end of the month" and then the " sailaway to follow shortly thereafter."
IF the 11August was a serious date, and sailing due by end of Q3 then 'shortly' is likely about a month later.

When there is some clarity on the dates, the delay will be quantified, and no longer open-ended with uncertainty.

jimo
joe

Sippn00B 11:15
"We shall see. On the upside, all that is required now is for the Aoka Mizu to arrive on site and good weather. But that is at least 8 or 9 weeks from now. Without any obvious news. What will the SP do over the next few weeks? My own personal view is, repeat what it did following the last two spikes and drift."

Sunday evening I suggested we were upto 3 months late. It now seems that we are around 4months adrift, imo, meaning more cash burn and more distant income. I believe that was why the price was drifting.
The Spirit news excited some and lifted the SP and we are now seeing slow drift. I would not be surprised to see the drift continue and the sail away restore it, drift and on-site restore it, drift and first oil, drift, first tanker etc.
Of course, overlaying this we may see progress on GLA that also provides some excitement, or maybe another surprise!

So, will we see the gap-up on the 3rd filled?

Who knows, TA, pah!

jimo
joe.

"KO has always given the company working capital - this year is no different and as last year shows, of the $8million given to the company, $7million was paid back from oil sales. Back to reality!"

The reality is that the oil sales did not pay $7M.
If you read the FY report you will see that it was a money-go-round in the best Chuckle Brothers tradition. To me, to you....
It came from one of his companies, via a Caspian subsidiary and into his pocket. Casp were never liable for the $7M.

It's almost as if you want to paint a positive picture to deceive....

As we don't know what we don't know wrt other deals, we can only work with what we do know and what we think...
If we look at the deal and what it means today for the two companies 2018 balance sheets, I see one +ve, one -ve.
Spirit
have not paid any 'deposit'.
have taken 50% of the Lincoln 2C assets ~300mmboe.
will have incurred some M&A costs
may have had to put a rig deposit into escrow (money still with them)
HUR
have not received any clawback cash for the Lincoln '2C drill'
have lost 50% of Lincoln 2C from assets
will have incurred some M&A costs

I have ignored the Warwick field but HUR have carried the P2294 licence and minimal spend.

Next year, it should be the other way round for the Phase1 GLA drills.
All the expense is on Spirit's books, both companies looking to book 50% of an oil discovery at Warwick. Success here (70%COS?) and then both companies will need to commit to the follow-up actions, 50/50.

The EPS factors are basically unchanged for HUR, but probably already include the delay (sorry 'tightening') when the intended Project timing as per TO rig hires slipped but although it has been completed without WoW, and subsea is underway, the AM which was not affected by TO, is not ready to support that original timing. So we have a new/fresh/updated plan that we are following and are 'on-plan', being in the large window. But three months may well have utilised some of the contigency funds that IJWT thinks he can use for the go-it-alone proving of Warwick.

And then to the effect on SP.
How much of the SP was attributed to EPS and how much to the other assets?
What has now changed? Will the GLA FOil be in the price, then or now?
The SP will move when there is some positive news on monetisation: swapping assets for activities may be the start of this process but does not go far enough: no sale, no cash-out.
Spirit will become GLA operator eventually, but in the meanwhile, HUR will oversee the exploration and development to FOil, as well as the production at Lancaster and the GLA development. A lot of responsibility for a company that does not want to be a producer.

More to come.
jimo

joe

WE HAVE NO DEBT!!!!

You've read the FY Report then?

Agree with Ricfle, the poll was conducted without views being allowed to justify the opinion.

Is it practical to put waxy oil in a subsea storage tank?
Just a Yes or no!

It's a common problem on these BBoards: people thinking they can see what they wish to read.
GL
:-))

Are you sure it was the cake?
It might have been seeing the SP that made you feel nauseous.

Have you spent your birthday money on a top up yet?

oops! I should have started with Happy Birthday! How rude of me!

Ijwt, I think rexmontego put together a thought provoking initial post to invite responses and he has been successful.
I agreed with you on Monday, and have now looked at it deeper.

What I think is missing is the GWA Project accumulative costs v. HUR share v. Lan-EPS income over the 2019/20 timeframe.
Total cost.......180 + 187.5 + 105 + 100 = 572.5
HUR share …..............46.9 + 52.5 + 50 = 149.4
Cash flow @$60....................138 + 216 = 354
It is not a free ride for HUR to GWA FOIL as I am sure some are suggesting, and any overrun will need funding.

I think that the plan drills more wells which should be more robust than the lite version in HUR's plan, which will be beneficial for the 50% P2294 relinquishment. However, as shown imo it will not establish an ODT for Warwick which may be different to Lincoln, given the faults shown. Perhaps sufficient connectivity to the working Lincoln well will suffice.

With this plan, the gas export line allows AMmax (see Q3 presentation, pg21 'Advantages') and further “Increased throughput on Aoka Mizu from de-bottlenecking (up to 40,000 bopd) will allow for an additional GLA well tie”.

So, AM is now at Max.plus33%, and allows EPS to run at higher 30k cash-accruing rate whilst also appraising Lincoln.
Perhaps they will include their other well that was planned as a producer as their new drills don't come until 2022, but equally, perhaps they are saying that the 3 new GLA wells plus 2EPS will feed AM and GLA will be prepping for its FFD solution by then.

I also seem to remember having an exchange (in agreement!) with aduk after a DrT interview that he was hinting at some Warwick action but I can't see that post now, but the broader point imv is that nothing in the FO has been a surprise, (apart from th announcement!), even the future Lancaster well placement was dependent on the EPS results.

It may be implausible atm why a billion pound company cannot find the delta cost needed to undertake the new plan, perhaps they need Foil proof before getting RBL or similar instead of equity, who knows?
Has this plan been worked up by Spirit to agree to buy in?
I think Spirit benefit by putting 50% of Lincoln on their books and if the oil is there in Warwick, they will have bought very cheaply indeed and they can look forward to some nice bonuses!
What may yet delight us is that they keep the PBLJ options open!

Jimo
joe
PS I wonder what Pijoe would have said?

aduk, Are you pencilling something in from this bit of the RNS?

"The GWA Farm-in provides Hurricane with a new leg to its business, with a large portion of the up-front capital expenditure funded, whilst freeing up cash flows from the Lancaster EPS for appraisal and development of the rest of its portfolio."

;-)

dspp, I note your
But please do not play us for stupids by skewing the presentation to make it a no-brainer.

As in:

“Hurricane retains net 2.3 bnboe of 2.6 bnboe 2P Reserves + 2C Contingent Resources following deal”

which disingenuously suggests the deal is done for just 0.3bnboe, whilst cleverly omitting the 50% of the 0.935bnboe of P50 prospective – which could be considered a conservative value, being in the CPR.. ie quote Lincoln and omit Warwick.

Good post and noted your comments re K. iirc their %age share dropped at the big placing.
joe

Seems boll ox is in the filter...

IJWT, I have not run the calc as per your double-size post, but I think atm I agree with the sentiment. We were not on the same page previously and not sure we are now as we need to take out the VCP and remove the rose tinted, imo.
However, guidance for H1 has been consistent, and the income was spelt out. The gaspipe also featured as a need.
The drilling options could not be funded imo, and the subsea for appraisal of drills as EWT to the waiting AM would be at the expense of Lanc production, but the 2C would improve.

I am at a loss to understand why further Lancaster drilling is now on hold when (they now say) that was planned for Q2/20. It leads me to wonder if a parallel deal is in the offing.

Th P2094 licence (Warwick) has a drill or drop date. Then they relinquish 50% and move on to 2nd term, so your 'value' may yet get worse.

As I see more ****** being posted I'll stop now. Perhaps some will treat this as ******.

I remember the XEL EWL significantly derisking...

Well done to all who took 55/56 this am.

Joe.