Member Info for JODO

“If you look at the total package it has has effectively risen from £285kGDP to £345kGDP to a difference of just £40k and not £115k as those touted figures would indicate or the outrageous claim of £150k!
Effectively this increase is around 13%”

I’m getting a bit worried now. I depend on several of you for sound and detailed analysis of Aminex and its prospects. Either a simple but significant miscalculation is overlooked since this morning or I’m totally innumerate, neither of which is encouraging.
Assuming the start and finish figures are correct, the increase is actually £60K which represents an increase of around 21%!
Am I missing something?

I had some shares here but sold out in recent weeks because I wasn’t sure how the sale would be treated by the Canadian authorities.
I live about 50 km from this mine and have been researching it more recently and it would seem that there are several and growing local protest campaigns against the plans.
Dalr are spending a lot on PR but it seems too polished and professional to cut much ice with the locals.
Dalr reports so far have always said how much support they had from the local community and politicians.
I think we should treat that with a grain of salt and the takeover by an investment outfit like Orion won’t make it any easier.

Just to say that this drill has a one in five chance of success ONLY if it is certain that one of the five will be successful.
I don’t know what the probability is otherwise.

Imagine! Fifteen informative/educational posts in a row and not a bit of smartassery etc. amon* them!

I think it would be good for everybody - particularly themselves - if Drewky and Pete declared a truce on here.
There is very little difference on what the probable potential is and agreement that right now there is no alternative to the deal.
There is a big difference regarding the competence - and possibly the good faith - of the Board and the implications this has has for how they develop other assets and defend their shareholders’ interests if/when it suits the Zubairs to pull a stroke.
Personally, i’m with Pete on this aspect, exacerbated by the fact that I’ve just been shafted on Dalradian; forced out on minus 25%, while executives and a 10% shareholder are allowed to keep their shares to the lucrative development stage of the goldmine.
I’m not here the length of many of you and have only just gone underwater but I would still like to see the BoD take some punishment.
That said, genuine informed posters here - particularly Dr and CP - should be able to now leave the argument where it is and resurrect their positions when it can make an impact, i.e., the egm, if necessary.
FWIW Drewky, I think that in reacting to critics you have allowed yourself to be boxed in to a position which is excessively rose tinted and defensive of the BoD which may not reflect your real opinions adequately. I share your optimism re the probable outcome from here on but in doing so it doesn’t mean that I trust the BoD to do their best for me in the same way that I used to!

Fair dealer re brexit

Just for information (and possibly an indicator re predictions on brexit developments), the Commission DOES NOT issue Directives!

I must say I side with Crusty and TB in this argument.
It’s true of course that we are where we are and, for that reason, nobody is seriously in favour of rejecting the deal.

However, from the 2016 to the 2018 AGMs is the period over which the BoD is being assessed, and who will argue that they have earned a pass, much less with honours, for their performance.
Being positive, or even optimistic, about prospects doesn’t mean you must whitewash what we were told and promised over the last two years.
It seems to me that, as TB suggests, what were clear management failures are being presented as justifications and a defence of the BoD performance.
E.g., in the face of hostile national authorities, and few cards to play, weren’t they great to negotiate this deal? This ignores the issue of whose job it was to ensure good relations, and indeed that we were constantly reassured that relations were great.
We now have reduced ambitions but still good prospects, I think/hope.
Our prospects will be improved by continued questioning of how we got here and certainly they will not by improved by convincing ourselves that this was the masterplan all along.
For that reason, I will continue to pay most attention to what Crusty and TB have to say while hoping desperately that the Candides turn out to be right in the end (and I plan to be here to see it!).

Haggis: The big dream is dead. What a load of tosh!
Few hope so more than me!

(Fellow) IrishMouse, I think that everyone is agreed that contesting the deal is not the way forward but at the same time “business as usual” is not a good signal.
There is also a time to fight even if victory is not certain; I think we should have a go.
PS: as a francophone, i’m pleased its 4-2!

I’m certainly in for the strategy: the big-dream-is-dead, now for a more prosaic return on our investment, and try to ensure that the dream-destroyers don’t have an overly comfortable retirement, while screwing up what’s left.
Personally, I would like 3-5 trustees to be in charge of making proposals for action.
I have never met any of you, so I have to judge your integrity - all that counts in this instance - on what I have read here.
It’s not necessary to be likeminded: for example, I think Drewky has Candide tendencies and is a bit quick to see a plot against the dream where none exists, but I have no reservations about his integrity or about his alignment with our interests.
CrustyPete is more contrarian and combative and equally honourable from what I can judge, so as somebody who still defines himself as a (former) trade union official, I can identify with that.
Anyway I would be very happy for those as 2 out of 3 or 5 to represent me.
I posted a week ago about being f***ed over by insiders on Dalradian, with no reaction from fellow shareholders there, so I’m happy to commit my 2.3m (rising before it falls) to whatever campaign gets going here.

A non-expert question!
Would the fact that the (reduced) Ruvuma prospects are now more stable and more likely to deliver an earlier return - or at least proof of assets - have a positive effect on the cost of and access to finance for Aminex where it is operator?
Just askin!

My last words on this subject. I posted this article for information. I’m not a commentator or an analyst and I don’t expound on topics on which I don’t have some expertise; I don’t claim any expertise on Aminex or Tanzania and although I could probably bull**** a bit, there doesn’t seem much point.
I do know a little bit about libel and slander; there is nothing libellous in this article and I hope that if Aminex’s managers decide to organise a lawyers’ benefit that they use their own money!

IM, below is the concluding paragraph of the article I posted around 21/06/17.
This guy is no prophet or, TTBOMK, a heavyweight analyst; he writes about Irish resource shares mostly and has a good track record. It was one of his articles that drew Aminex to my attention and I bought in at less than 1p several years ago.
However that’s not really the point here. This article was greeted approvingly by several posters because it confirmed our prejudices and hopes.
The reaction to the recent article was not merely to say its factually wrong, not well founded etc. as might be justified. Rather several reached for the conspiracy theory and one, in essence, charged me with lying when I claimed to have posted a positive piece from the same author a few years ago. These are not my friends or acquaintances so it’s no big deal but it puts in question their judgement on other more important issues relating to how this commpany is run. I’m going to hang in there with my 2.2m shares because I’m optimistic that I will surely make some sort of profit although I’m inclined to be much more sceptical about what is afoot; that is a legitimate concern and being jumped on as part of a conspiracy does nobody any good.

ADVICE
At the time, Moneybags advised existing shareholders to take up their open offer entitlement at 1.5 cent a share in August and those who did have done exceptionally well, with the share price now trading at 6c. Even at this level, Aminex is only capitalised
at €200m – little more than is justified by the existing producing gas field, never mind the short-term potential of the onshore prospect, where two successful discovery wells have now proved up.
Aminex investors are in for an interesting ride over the next two years.
Mohammad Al Zubair

Yes, you found 14; this is my 31st post (see under my name)!

Yes, you found 14; this is my 31st post (see under my name)!

CPerkin: it may be that your search tools/skills are not up to the task. You found 13 whereas under my name beside my post it shows 29: one on Amn last autumn plus 15 others. I will find it and post it for you; it may even be that you commented welcoming this insightful, intelligent and very optimistic article (as I did)!

“Shorters”!!!

Hi Gaslady, no this is not a heavyweight oil & gas specialist magazine but the guy who writes on stocks - Irish resource stocks mostly - seems well informed. This article is not mine as some seem to think but I posted a very optimistic article on Aminex here from the same source last year and the reaction was very different.
I must admit that the reaction from some has dented my confidence in the good sense of some regular posters here; talk about “shooters” etc. is nonsense and irrational. I have 2m plus amn shares, I am just above water and I am extremely keen for them to do well, as you might expect!
This article doesn’t really puncture my optimism but the madly defensive reaction of some here depresses me.

GL: Are you being ironic?

Part 3
. A more important action by Hall was in drilling Aminex onshore Ruvuma Basin well in Tanzania. This so-called Ntorya- One gas well was drilled in 2013-14, before Bhattacherjee joined the company, in a joint venture with Aidan Heavey’s Tullow Oil. When it hit its primary target – found to be dry – Heavey pulled out and handed it back for nothing. Undaunted, Hall decided to drill on to the second target. This proved something of a bonanza, fl owing 20 million cubic feet of gas a day alongside 139 barrels of oil. What has happened since then has been disappointing in that Bhattacherjee has proved risk averse. In August 2016, instead of simply drilling an appraisal oil well one mile away from the initial successful well, the chief executive seriously diluted Aminex’s equity with a big €25m placing at 1.5 cent a share, with the Omani sheikh, Mohammad Al Zubair, taking up the bulk of this to give him an effective controlling 29% shareholding.
D R I L L I N G
With lots of money in the bank, Bhattacherjee then drilled Ntorya-Two at the beginning of last year, which fl owed gas at an impressive17 million cubic feet a day. There was a third well to be drilled last autumn four miles to the south west (a step-out appraisal well) to really upgrade this resource but this has not happened. Instead, although Aminex has net $6m cash and $5m in receivables, Bhattacherjee has decided that before drilling he should farm out part of the group’s interest in the Ruvuma production sharing agreement (PSA) “to an affi liate of the Zubair Corporation”. The last well cost under $10m and Aminex could well afford to drill this third well which, if successful, would hugely upgrade the resources in this fi eld. Instead of keeping as much as possible of this potential windfall for Aminex shareholders, it will be diluted by a farming out to the largest shareholder. Perhaps Bhattacherjee has lost his nerve because the one producing asset the company has, has turned into a dud. Aminex’s share price peaked at a high of 8 cent after the second successful onshore gas drill in April 2017 but has drifted since and is back down to 2.5 cent. A diluting farm-out could well further damage the shareholders who, two years ago, believed they were on the cusp of something really significant.