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thx embers and Peterbo
I would concur with your posts as a patient long term holder and I think most of us here want mvr to translate the business it has become into a major UK market success
A final point if I may, there have been some very good and insightful post on this chat over the recent past, some with very good business sense/experience, some with knowledge/understanding of the tech.... why take pleasure in being so negative and trash talking?
perhaps this share is not for you or it may take longer than you expect....
that is the market and it can afford to remain irrational a lot longer than most of us
With reference dilution, I hear you. it is all there for us to see in the accounts under note 23: 90.69 mio options and 197.7 mio warrants, say a potential total of circa 289mio shares on 1,727bio or 16.7% .... i would tend to include all strikes in the money as a rule (if calculating eps - not the case now). In my opinion, the dilution is not outrageous for a tech company at this stage of their growth and the incentive is significant.
i think they have used the warrants and options cleverly to preserve cash when remunerating and enticing people on board; it even brings in cash into the coffers on occasions.
yes we may get hit as the share price rises, but frankly speaking and in the greater scheme of things, should we really care about it if the share price appreciation more than compensates the dilution? what if it rises to 10p, 15p, 20p, 30p or more
in my experience, the answer is no. i would be happy to leave that incentive on the table to gain multiple times. it is a small price to pay.
if most of us were in the money on our holdings, i doubt we would be having these exchanges
we might just want more and faster .... not realistic really
many thanks A1EX, Petebo, lordfont and keithlemonade...
sometimes it is helpful to take stock and to assess where a company is and if anything around the investment decision has changed.
other than the share price being where it is and longer timelines, nothing has changed in terms of the proposition, if anything it has actually come a long way in a complex global business. and has ticked all the POC boxes...it now needs to show how it can best monetise and the legals around this business are very complex; the world's current predicament is certainly a challenge.
so with this in mind, the question i ask myself is: would i buy mvr today?
the answer is a resounding yes. i simply cannot find anything remotely offering such potential.
i would perhaps keep some powder dry, just in case or for days like today.
i remain invested up to my eyeballs and the opportunity cost, when looking at my watch list, has been significant.
good afternoon all,
i don't often post, but felt it appropriate to do so today.
the volatility experienced late last week and today is certainly giving rise to a lot of animosity and speculation, trying to get to the bottom of everything, which is never possible; note 23 in the accounts are there for all to see and pages 42-46 are clear in their layout of options and warrants; they may not give the names of all the holders in detail, especially as some of them are not granted to directors/employees, but also to business partners etc.
the rules to exercise are precise and overseen by the board/advisors, within the windows allowed under stock exchange rules (close period etc); as they are not listed, the decision to convert must be submitted for approval and, what the holder the does with the shares is very much their decision and possibly affected by their tax position.
it is my understanding that any options/warrants that are vested and in the money may be exercised at the option of the holder anytime up until the expiry date... a good /bad leaver clause may affect the numbers, perhaps why some have lapsed.
for my part, i remain heavily invested and giving this time to come through. the company has come a very long way and is in
quite a sweet spot ; it has shown the ability to execute and negotiate with some heavy hitters. the negative value ascribed by the market cap is below total sums raised to date, which seems bonkers when considering where they are and what they have achieved.
i understand and at times share the frustration with the share price and news flow, but this is a complex business with many moving parts and i believe they are very much focusing on the business aspects; this is not a short term punt anymore and it holds very serious potential as they have showcased.... it just may not be in the time frame some want and no doubt further options/warrants will be exercised, it is part of their capital structure to secure financing and quite possibly more may be required. the institutional shareholders they have on board are a very switched on group and tend to be long term; no doubt they have done their due diligence and are being kept in the loop. With a potential notion to list on Nasdaq at some stage (where a significant valuation uplift is probable), i do not thing the board will risk any screw ups in their process and if/when eligible a move away from AIM is a possibility, which may also depend on tax positions, as aim does offer some big breaks.
some are sitting on profits, many try to trade it, many are sitting on unrealised losses and having perhaps over invested (like me) get rattled at times...that is the market
remember, more often than not the serious money is in the waiting
for those of you that may have an interest, i have spoken to a number of contacts in the institutional world and just sharing a little feedback.
the primary concerns lie around the liquidity in tan over leveraged financial system which has to unwind and this is the pain trade. Visibility is quasi no existent and this will effect all of the supply chain in this interconnected world and decision making; just keep an eye on volatility measures and credit spreads; opportunities will emerge, it's just a question of from what level.
central banks can no longer carry the same punch and some sort of massive fiscal stimulus will have to come into effect.
there are many lessons to learn from this
i would also suggest that a fair bit of tax loss selling may be occuring and that it may continue ahead of the upcoming 5th of April
I am very long this business, one of only two publicly listed companies i own and it is extremely painful. I continue to believe in the potential of the space they operate in; rather than getting rattled by the lack of news flow and communication, i have chosen to trust in the management, their team, their vision, their ability to deliver. We shall see and I hope we are vindicated one day.
At the moment, we are in unknown territory. There is panic, massive deleveraging, redemptions, spike in credit swaps, hedging. liquidity issues etc and we are beginning to see that reflected in market behavior with quality businesses being dumped, volatility spiking and algos etc mindlessly kicking in, de-risking with small caps and tech.... asset prices and debt levels remain very high and authorities (central banks) castrated.... this could be an excuse to let a very painful process of correction to occur in order to adjust the barometers.... it is a bear market sadly and we are facing a very severe slowdown; how long? who knows, as markets can afford to remain irrational a lot longer than we can.....could authorities close them for a while? a possibility but how probable? i just don't know....
i have seen and experienced a fair bit in nearly 40 years of investing institutionally and personally and this ranks up there.
It has taught me to resist the temptation to catch a falling knife until the dust settles a bit and to focus on quality businesses i believe in. I feel we are in for a very rocky time over the next 2/3 months at least and i have no ideas of where markets could settle, but seeing where they have come from since the lows of 2008/early 2009 is sobering.
Any views are welcomed
with volatility spiking, it is easier to detect the crowded trades in popular shares being impacted by hedging, de risking by selling tech and small caps, CFDs and margin calls...dev, boom, zoe, blu, bids; for the first time in a while EVRH does not feel like an over owned share and the temptation is to add, give or take 10% ....
a question is: how many live events will be cancelled or postponed? will EVRH be able to offer a substitute?
As said previously I seldom post, but it is a new year and have been catching up on here.
I have most of my eggs in this basket.... and it has gone from fantasy/concept to road map delivery (always challenging ) and they are not in control of all the variables and timelines.
I can understand the frustration with the price action but not with the animosity of some of the posts; there is definitely some good market research; views and opinions are what they are. Second guessing the management is of little help and, I believe they have a lot of skin in the game, some great hires and relationships. It just takes time.... and one day it may just pop.
EVRH remains a small company dealing in the big leagues, which is commendable and they are abiding rigidly with stock market rules.... perhaps a little more news would be welcomed as would be an investor teach in day, which I did ask about at the AGM (reply was ...open to it when the time is right); they are still I believe in a build up phase and are not in control of the market, clients, adoption etc.... being invested in a couple of start ups, I know only too well how key one or two clients and restrictive an NDA can be and, there is nothing you would do to jeopardize it.
The market is what it is and investors, day traders are the ones bringing the share price down... not the management.
Shorting without having borrowed the stock is not a legal practice last time I checked; not sure what happens with day trading and cfd (believe the stock still has to be borrowed)
The share price behavior is a little puzzling and has changed of late, as if someone (or a few are bailing out and losing patience) it does not take much to influence the share price.... market makers are definitely in control for now and see all actual/potential flows; my gut feeling is that there has been 1 or 2 large sell orders ( de-risking, change of portfolio managers etc) in a difficult market where tech and micro/small caps have suffered and possible speculation on cash flows/need for funds; when arriving towards the end of a big sell order, volumes tend to pick up and the stock gets dumped giving the illusion of a average price (vwap)... once below 3% I am not sure anything has to be disclosed.
At this stage I have little option to trust they are focusing on delivering, else I should just sell.
Having been patient thus far I am holding tight and looking to add.
I am not sure what the competition is or what they are doing, as most is still unlisted; any light would be welcomed on this.
i don't often post but this news rewards patience and trust, as I cannot second guess management and do not want to... They are laying the foundations for something potentially mind boggling and have a lot of skin/reputations at stake; big global names would not be engaging otherwise; they are punching above their weight in the big leagues which i find impressive. I believe that most on this board want EVRH to succeed, but in their time not the company's or the market's, as some, including myself have built up significant positions and may be under water. Could this become a unicorn? it is a distinct possibility becoming a probability, but the time frames are out of our control and the company's; all they can do is to keep delivering... it is now about adoption, penetration and monetisation. i just hope that is remains listed for the duration of the journey
i am in a similar position with a couple of private companies, where one or two contracts with big players are life changing... it is however in their time not ours as are the terms...all i can add from my experience is that the quantum around mobile adoption and data usage become very significant but out of our control.... hence the need for support from partners...
this is still early stage but becoming significantly re-risked
My understanding from Q&A at the AGM and a conversation with senior management was not to expect too much this year from Ibiza Rocks ... got the impression there was a great deal of work/effort/planning to lay the groundwork for next year on many fronts and that the team was extremely focussed and motivated to deliver on ambitious plans.
my involvement in early stage companies and technology has taught me to accept that change is the only constant to adapt to it, to be patient and to allocate investments according to risk appetite and sensitivity to losses.
I remain heavily invested in this company and believe they have what it takes to deliver; i just have to accept that timelines may be a moving target
BigGib gives a very good summary
would add:
Arden appointment makes sense as they will be a much bigger fish- analyst at investec had left for Numis. a note will be published in due course.... they could not comment as a result on the accuracy of the old note comfort factor
Marian short is pretty irrelevant as it is in a systematic trading fund
to publish half year in August
no plans for dual listing-buy out etc
evaluating other verticals
open to hosting a capital markets day later this year or next
I got the impression there is a fair bit in the pipeline and they are laying the groundwork for 2020
the way they have managed to sow up the music/licensing deals is impressive-especially due to their size and age- punching above their weight and creating significant barriers to entry.
Asia has different dynamics (China and Japan) and may take more time....focus is very much on penetrating /monetizing existing markets....USA and Europe
Facebook has been on a learning curve with marketing/selling of hardware and will get there. .. mobile has to be the way to go...evaluating a subscription model as well ( a la youtube)
licensing deals etc in my view justify comfortably the valuation and mobile penetration could I think add about 100mio per 1% market share as things stand today
the joker going forward could/will be the data generated by app usage and how to monetise it with media/advertising/consumer companies etc.... that is complex and massive and begins to become very relevant above 2/3 million app users
personally, the story is getting exciting and this no longer a concept stock..it's a key player in a global industry. it is a 2/3 year play with very very significant upside
short term who knows-volatilty will likely remain
confident and open
addressed all questions
very driven to deliver their vision and plans.
right team in place to do so and very comfortable with cash position
newsflow will come and new opportunities will be evaluated
5G is a positive and mobile key longer term
great play on a nascent sector holding very significant potential over next 2-3 years
To answer a question asked and, apologies if it has been answered already, a short may be covered without having to return the borrowed stock if one wishes to do so and, hence there is no need to declare to the FCA if one retains the borrowed stock; the cost of borrow is quite low in this environment and hence likely. Ahead of AGMs borrowed stock may be called back in order for holders to be eligible to vote, although the current share ownership would enable the existing management to pass it's resolutions
The question to ask is who lent the stock in the first place and if it was with the consent of the investor (if held in seggregated accounts) or under a general custody holding grouping; often this is how custodians etc make additional returns without the holder ever knowing.
From a personal perspective the Merian short is immaterial as a percentage of the share capital and the overall percentage of short interest as a percentage of the share capital is extremely low; 5-10% thresholds have been a warning flag to me in the past and very few players will have the stomach to take out large shorts on AIM and/or highly volatile shares unless there are clear accounting issues/flags. in a way, one would wish for them to remain short in this rise, as a decision to cover will further underpin the price (albeit short term).
The management of EVRH should just focus on running the business (and learning in the process - a few areas to improve upon; an investor/teach in day for example would not go amiss) and not the share price; that will take care of itself as they deliver; timing is however out of their control and the tech space, as I have experienced, can change very quickly and one has to adapt. They have attracted some serious investors and professionals to their business who have a lot at stake and at some stage one can chose to trust and be patient.
The last thing I would want at this stage would be for the company to be taken over or to go private
apologies for the long post.- a few after thoughts
evrh is managing the business - not the share price - and there have been no leaks of any kind which i find comforting.
sitting on sizeable losses with little news flow is however is unpleasant and anxiety/fear creep in - aim history
accounting policies et al look ok - await to hear from new cfo and the ex spotify exec on sales/marketing - greater clarity feeds understanding, patience and backing; it will be a while before EVRH makes it on the institutional radar (£250 mio and above)
need for funds - limited at the moment and have cash on balance sheet - what the future holds i do not know; i would very much doubt any dilutive operation, nor any takeovers/buyouts at these levels - pros will often require far greater visibility and are prepared to pay up for it.
i would welcome an in depth investor day, not just an AGM, to get greater transparency/understanding of the business model (and variations on pricing, licensing, advertising, merchandising etc) - They are weak on that front and play things extremely close to their chest.
How they client base behaves going forward is key, as they are the small fish in the big pond. Coming results are pretty much immaterial, next year less so, the following key; there is a price to pay for being listed and they are experiencing it. Moving from dreams/fantasy/speculation to the reality of delivering in reality.
one can do all the homework in the world; at this stage you buy the concept and back the people to deliver it in a very large and global market - there will be ai rpockets
preferring anonymity, I usually never post, but having monitored various chats concerning evrh/melody, i thought i would take a jump, as i identify with a number of statements and comments made. For the record, I have been a shareholder in this company since January 2017 having bought between 4 and 11 pence with an average of 8.2 pence; hence like many sitting on a sizeable loss with an investment of 3mio shares which i would look to build upon, were the company to deliver on its business plan.
I have been in institutional fund management running long only and hedge funds for over 30 years and fairly active in start ups.. and I am still learning. A big fan of VR/AR I invested in the concept in the UK with both VR Education (very illiquid) and EVRH where my enthusiasm got the better of me in terms of size, as well as reviewing some unlisted opportunities. There is little doubt in my mind that I should've followed my instinct and top-sliced in the run up to the placing/just post, as it felt like a classic aim move to raise funds and place shares (which they did ...a big move yielding a valuation then difficult to justify on normal metrics. To my knowledge both the large funds in the UK and USA have not changed their stance; at this share price the %weighted investment relative to their fund size is sadly pretty immaterial; just "egg on face" syndrome that usually triggers internal reviews/assessment of the investment; from a risk management perspective and allowed exposure to aim/micro caps they may not be able to average down. Hedge funds in such situations and following placings/capital raising without significant news flow follow through are very quick/aggressive to short and to maintain as long as the momentum is negative; they may also gamma adjust their position (ie add to the short to maintain their weightings, which may trigger a fair bit of panic especially when there are significant private investors and chat rooms as here - easy to spread negativity); there are also the algorithm bots that jump on the band wagon.
The fact is the company remains in early stage development and the 3 year rule is a good yardstick for such; the 3rd year is when you reap the success of the business plan.... a way to go...remains too risky for most.
What they have achieved to date, focusing on monitising their business going forward is impressive and their communication has adhered rigidly to stock exchange rules, including observing close periods. They Have a good advisor(top of 2nd tier) and are attracting people in the know who see the potential to build something significant and not out for a fast buck. (takeovers etc) Having correctly de-risked their personal exposure there is no reason for founders to buy in the market and certainly none for the company (funds on hand are better spent on the business itself). Their overall disclosure is also constrained by their NDAs and the fact they depend on very powerful counterparts (quite remarkable vs size).