Member Info for JMort

I don’t know if it was commented on here yesterday but did you spot the first sentence in the “Return of Capital” section of the RNS? It stated:

“As part of its total return model, the Company remains committed to delivering a sustainable monthly dividend to complement its organic growth profile.”

Note the word “monthly”. Is this a copy and paste error from a previous RNS or a hint at the future, made possible by the new debt facility meaning the previous restrictions no longer apply?

A couple of interesting short articles on Trans Mountain pipeline:

1) Remaining steps to completion

https://www.fortmcmurraytoday.com/news/with-completion-in-sight-whats-next-for-the-trans-mountain-pipeline-project/wcm/482f6379-cc72-46e6-bcac-01a34dd63cec/amp/

2)Possible destination of the oil

https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/canadian-oil-flows-la-trans-mountain-pipeline-start-nears/wcm/697377bd-4a07-42d0-8412-4da766e11936/amp/

Post likely explanation is the extremely low number of trades today. Probably nothing more sinister than that.

Excellent news.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/long-delayed-trans-mountain-pipeline-to-start-filling-with-oil-1.2026172

People may be interested in the following article posted by Art Berman. Art is described as a "World-Renowned Energy Consultant and Keynote Speaker" who "cuts through the noise, grounding energy debates in reality, not fairy tales."

https://www.artberman.com/blog/beginning-of-the-end-for-the-permian/

His views are in line with those of Goehring & Rozencwajg, previously highlighted on this site by Tony.

https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/natural-gas-market

The inventory build reported today by the American Petroleum Institute was predicted by Eric Nuttall a week or two ago due to refinery maintenance season. Oil demand isn’t dropping and what’s important, he said, are global inventory levels. He expected this period to be followed in November and December by significant inventory draws.

Some good news.

hTTps://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Trans-Mountain-Oil-Pipeline-Back-On-Track-As-Regulator-Approves-Route-Change.html

We shouldn't get too excited about Irishkea. O'Cathain puts chances of success here at 1 in 3, so by their own calculations they do not expect it to succeed. Remember - they put the chances of success of the drilling last year at Serenity at 50% which turned out to be a duster.

Tony, thanks for sharing. You're previous estimates of NOI have turned out to be pretty accurate, so this is very encouraging.

Ok, thanks VernetLes

Does anyone know the answer to my question on the change in exchange rate and the effect on NOI? Thanks.

Please could someone explain how the exchange rate affects I3e’s NOI. The RNS on 28th June stated an assumption of USD / CAD Foreign Exchange of 1.33 and a change to NOI of USD1.27 for each CAD 0.01 change.

The exchange is currently 3 cents more at 1.36. So if this was maintained for a year would NOI increase or decrease by 1.27 x 3 = USD 3.81 million?

Cheers

If I3E were delisted from AIM and moved to a Canadian only listing, what would happen to our shares? I mean, are you forced to sell? When this happens how does the sell price typically relate to the current share price? And for those of us invested in platforms which don’t allow investing in Canadian stocks e.g. Fidelity, Halifax, would that be the end for us?

Morning All.

Regarding the new commodity price assumptions of $72 for WTI and CAD$2.60 for AECO, the update on 29 June 2023 stated "Commodity prices and foreign exchange reflect full year average realized prices or rates." In the presentation on 5th July they were described as reflecting "Next Twelve Month Net Operating Income Sensitivity". So are these commodity price assumptions for the whole of 2023 (to include the prior 6 months) or for July 2023 to June 2024?

Also, where do people get the current AECO prices? I use the following which has it at CAD$2.70

hTTps://www.dailyoilbulletin.com/markets/

I used to look at gasalberta.com but that seems to be delayed by a day or two.

Many thanks

Thanks, Tony. I will email I3E with that question, although I have emailed them before and had no reply. Will post back here if I do get a reply.

Tony (or anyone), any idea how much we would need to spend on drilling in 2024 in order to maintain the 2023 production rate to counter the natural decline? We'll end this year up 3%, but that includes the aggressive drilling in Q1 2023 before the CapEx cut. Presumably if the rate of drilling in 2023 H2 was maintained into 2024, we would decline.

The RNS on 29 June stated "Approved capital programme of USD 25 million plus USD 6 million, subject to board approval, for a revised drilling programme targeting the Company's Clearwater acreage". So is that a total of USD 31 million for the year to achieve this 3% increase?

Many thanks

Agree, Sharesahoy. Even addressed the questions about being a 'leaky ship'. Good on them for that.

Tony, thanks for your comments. What you say makes sense.

Jezzoo, I was referring to the Serenity duster in October 2022, not Liberator.

What do people think of the 'leaky ship' claim? I can't remember any significant share price fall prior to the Serenity duster, but there was definitely one before last week's RNS. As the share price dropped prior to the RNS there was speculation here and on ADVFN about leaks to IIs. Worth a question at the Webinar to give I3 an opportunity to allay fears?

We won't have a better opportunity to get answers than this webinar, so I also encourage people to submit questions. Even if you think others will ask the same questions, it should highlight to I3 the areas of investor concern. I'll be asking about the reasons for the move to a quarterly dividend, and if they can give further details of M&A including how it will be funded.