Member Info for jk400

WH Ireland retain 8p target.

"With palm oil volumes well ahead of the prior year, we view DKL’s palm oil business as well on track for a good outturn this year and look forward to further updates as the year goes on. With two fully invested projects, we view DKL as possessing a strong and profitable business in its palm oil operation, with potential for significant further growth as its recently commissioned cashew operation comes on stream. Leaving our forecasts unchanged this morning, we highlight the fact that the cashew project is expected to be loss making in FY24E, but this should reverse in FY25E as production improves – delivering a significant swing in profitability at group level."

They are also - crucially - forecasting Net Debt continuing to fall, with the broad shoulders of the palm oil business having to sustain the (in effect) mothballed cashew facility.

2021

-€31.4m

2022

-€29.8m

2023 (E)

-€28.4m

2024 (E)

-€26.5m

Source: WH Ireland estimates.

Conman, you should also realise that at times there has been a tendency to rush out good news and delay bad news. Long term holders have a very long memory when it comes to DKL.

The 10th of the month has become a de facto date for monthly results, but other things affect that such as weekends and bank holidays. Also, they seem to favour Tuesdays and Thursdays for some reason.

The board have been asked on numerous occasions to release and stick to an RNS calendar, but they refuse to do so. The reason being that the blue chips favour the bigger companies for auditing, so that's fair enough for things like the accounts, but there is zero reason why we couldn't have a calendar for the year ahead noting which days the monthly figures will be released.

There does need to be more accountability on this.

Morning Fk1, yes as we've found to our cost, this is one of the key issues with DKL and holders who wish to just bail out at any cost.

It all goes back to impatience on the one hand - who can blame them - and lack of news flow on the other, mixed in with a dollop of general incompetence.

Although, I'm more optimistic about DKL than I have been for some time.

Lincoln's buy-in seems to have stopped the rot. The bounce was short lived after profit taking and zero news flow, but the message it sent to the market speaks much higher volumes than the popular puff pieces ever could. It has been noted that said puff pieces have been conspicuous by their absence in recent times unfortunately, but we'll gloss over that.

We told the board to focus on FFB's and I believe we've now had 12 or 13 consecutive months of growth in that department, albeit from a bad harvest the year before, so we hope that growth continues. CPO prices are now at 10-15 year highs if we ignore the pandemic spike. The local prices lag somewhat, but they will catch up at some point.

Still no improvement on the 60k vs. 70k tonnes issue, but beggars can't be choosers.

For Lincoln to put his money where his mouth is (and to 'lead from the front' as Zak Mir noted) says to me that he "sees a lot of value" at 1.3p - even though he actually said that at 3.65p.

I note that it's a year since it was announced that Aristide Achy Brou, a non-executive director, elected to receive shares in Dekel rather than cash for all remuneration that became due for the period 1 January 2022 to 31 December 2022. In the small print of that RNS, it was noted that "Aristide Achy Brou has also elected to receive his entire remuneration in shares for the 2023 calendar year." So, I assume there will be no need to RNS that for this year? If so, then that may go unnoticed in terms of the SP.

Having said that, with a ridicuously low market cap and returning to Lincoln's trades, on that basis and seeing as there's nothing else to go, then perhaps better times cannot be far away?

Therefore, I'm changing my opinion from weak buy to strong buy. :)

RNS Hotlist with Zak Mir:

https://www.share-talk.com/rns-hotlist-with-zak-mir-pow-maru-tcap-land-fgp-aura-dkl-urah-atm-renx-palm-hayd-hat-psn/

"Shares of DKL have appeared chronically undervalued as compared to the progress being made by the company over the past couple of years. This point is underlined by the Executive Director leading from the front in terms of buying into the stock."

Credit where it's due, Lincoln has put his money where his mouth is and should be applauded for doing so.

We've seen an immediate upswing this morning off the back of that and the rest of the board should take note.

wh ireland have retained their forecasts "unchanged this morning....with volumes seen so far this year remaining supportive of full year expectations, though we note that key months are still to come in the high season."

also, "palm oil performing strongly, marking the 12th consecutive month of higher yoy production".

https://*********************/companies/uk/food/dekel-agri-vision-plc/research/whireland/dekel-agri-vision-february-production-update-palm-oil-volumes-well-ahead-of-prior-year/

Rugs, the only one I know of who disappeared without trace was circa 16 million for Yossi Inbar.

Also, for reference only, the February RNS was released on the 9th working day of the month. Today, is the 7th working day of this month.

Harchris, surely even you have to accept that this issue of £8000 worth of shares is ridiculous?

If current cash resources are as tight as you suggest, then these 'experts' should not be being employed at all. Have any shares been given to those responsible for the mess at the cashew facility?

What an opportunity this would have been to change tack, with a relatively small outlay to say to the market, we normally would issue more shares but the SP is so low we've bought these on the open market to pay for services rendered.

On the plus side, FFB's are significantly up but we have absolutely no idea whether that is due to a) a good harvest, b) the prelude to a dreadful 2025 next year as these things seem to be cylical, c) the boards efforts to increase local production, d) A N Other.

The break even price of CPO sales used to be $550, so $759 is still good.

The key shareholders page has been updated:

https://dekelagrivision.com/page.php?pID=5&ppID=5

About 7-8 years ago, Fk1 said he would not buy any more shares here until it was back above 17p - I, and others, would be somewhat richer had we taken heed of that advice.

HarChris, in January 2019 - the last time the board put their hands in their pockets - they also said, and I believe this is a direct quote, "the board could see a lot of value at 3.5p"

That's why it's surprising they aren't buying more at 1.2p

Decent enough puff piece, good to hear the interviewer pushing Lincoln particularly on what the hell is going on with cashews and the share price.

It's on direct0rs talk for anyone trying to find it.

Rugs, it's on the list of things to do, so will report back if I get around to it. Some of my concerns have been overtaken by that interview though, as I thought the answers were genuine and suggest everyone give it a listen as I sensed a welcome change of tone. Having said that, the market has forced them in to a corner so to speak, so they have to change tack at these levels.

"Seems a few here talking their own book trying to obtain a better price."

If only that were true.

Why would holders sitting on losses of 90% be looking to buy more at "a better price"?

More likely we are calling out mistakes/problems as we see them, in the hope that they are not repeated.

The reason for the SP fall is because the market keeps seeing those same mistakes being repeated. A few "stale bulls" on LSE forums are not going to make any difference to the SP otherwise Fundraiser222/Stacegibbs pumping posts would have had this at 600p by now.

One immediate step that could be taken to (begin to) restore confidence would be an RNS correcting the incorrect 60k vs 70k tonnes figure for the CPO mill. The market knows that's wrong and we know why it is wrong, so correct it.

10 years ago, almost to the day, this peaked at 17p.

An RNS from the time said this: "The Mill is on course to become fully operational and generate first revenues in February 2014, at which point it will become one of West Africa's largest with a capacity to produce 70,000 tonnes per annum."

Today, a new low of 1.2p

Wow.

In terms of selling cheap CPO, we do have the much vaunted storage tanks, why are we not using them?

Morning fk1, WH Ireland had assumed €850/tonne for the full year, so today's news of €737/tonne - although there are signs of "improvement" - would suggest the (only last month) updated price target of 8p may be at risk.

Zak Mir on Share Talk:

"It is a shame that the market is clearly not engaged in a positive way regarding what DKL is clearly achieving operationally. It remains to be seen whether the prospect / reality high season will lift the bulls out of their slumber."

https://www.share-talk.com/rns-hotlist-with-zak-mir-eisb-arv-wpho-sed-eme-tm1-dkl-kefi-ujo-csfs-neo/

HarChris - 'expecting uptick in february'

Which February?

The SP is down another 3.3% today on no news and historically the market has got wind of good news being rushed out and bad news being put back by a few days.

Now to their credit, those games appear to have stopped and, like you say, they tend to go for the 8th-13th.

Just for the record Harchris, I agree with Fk1 that it is unnerving when news is expected on or immediately after the 10th of each month and it does not appear.

DKL shareholders have a very long memory.

I say this is a matter of trust because another bugbear is the 70k tonnes CPO facility that was built in Ayenouan a decade ago. As a new shareholder, I assume you believe it to be a 60k tonnes facility (?), because that's what all of the literature states it is. Whereas around 5 or 6 years ago, it suddenly lost 10k tonnes capacity, on paper at least. Are you unnerved to hear that, because I would be? The old RNS's have it as such in black and white.

Indeed fk1, some think this is a minor thing to be discussing and of no relevance, but as we know it's yet another example of a much larger problem - that of trust.