Member Info for jk400

@Rugs, thanks yes I will do that.

@HarChris, it's not just the long term holders, it should be the BOD as well. They have amassed a large collection of shares, but are content for the SP to dwindle away to nothing. Why?

@Danny, CPO prices are nowhere near record highs. They are only around half the level today of March 2022 when, unsurprisingly, we had a bad harvest.

My two penneth would be there has been so much disappointment that every time there is a large sell off, other holders just want to be out at any price. This leads to the SP being pushed further and further downwards. Even long term holders here, as we've seen recently with rugs and blue2guit, are questioning their investment.

Every time we get positive news, at most you're going to see a 10%-20% upswing (from a now very low level), whereas long term we've seen a 90%+ downswing (from high ish SP levels) - to the point where we now need an 800% upswing to get back to where we started.

Common sense would suggest the SP is far too low, but the market has spoken.

How do we move forward from here?

We're not going to see a new board, they have control.

They need to stop trying to 'gok wan' events and just tell us how they're going to resolve issues.

It's been said time and time again, they don't listen. They need to start listening.

My 5 step plan would be to:

1) Resolve cashew issues asap.

2) Increase further the number of FFB collections, they're still too low.

3) Start director buying at these prices, even if only to sell on again later when 'normality' (hopefully) returns.

4) Stop dilution and make clear it's going stop.

5) Stop trying to pull the wool over our eyes with stunts like 60k tonnes facility, when it was built as 70k tonnes.

Danny, for clarity WH Ireland have reduced that 9.5p target to 8p on the back of this months news.

The aforementioned conversation between Lincoln Moore and MBTrading:

https://twitter.com/MBdaytrading/status/1746871409765240986

"Palm Oil Prices Expected to Surge"

https://bnnbreaking.com/world/malaysia/palm-oil-prices-expected-to-surge-says-industry-expert/

ConMan, to build up some level of (extremely cheap) stock to pay for the invetible payment in lieu for services rendered later. Why create more out of thin air down the line, when they can buy cheap on the open market now?

That is a totally seperate issue to debt, addressed the other day, which is falling at a reasonable pace already.

The SP being battered is a confidence issue in itself.

Morning fk1, the other board appear to be more positive, even adding and calling the drop 'mad'.

The BOD saw "a lot of value" at 3.65p, so they should be piling in at this level and/or even looking at share buy backs to cancel or to hold and sell on when the inevitable shares in lieu raises its ugly head in time.

Just thinking about the "doing better than people realise quote" last year.

The profit figures would disagree, around €600k per annum, but the debt numbers are still reducing at a reasonable pace, even after yesterday's announcement.

Down from a peak of -€31.4 million in 2021 to around -€26 million this year.

Servicing that debt is of more concern than whether the cashews are further delayed. It's already 3 years delayed in any case, so debt is something I can agree with HarChris on, and to service that until the cashew facility is finally ready, we are reliant on the volumes of CPO being maintained.

On that score, FFB's processed (tonnes):

2023 182,362

2022 116,733

2021 190,020

2020 154,151

2019 176,019

2018 146,036

2017 171,696

2016 171,301

2015 151,930

Https://twitter.com/MBdaytrading/status/1745380635982561361

"Obviously disappointed with #DKL, had brief email exchange with Lincoln and his words ‘ Hi Michael. Yes cashews is frustrating but very solvable’ - I’m speaking in more detail tomorrow"

@HarChris, in the depths of that report, WH Ireland have net debt / revenue / adj PBT as follows:

Net Debt (€m)

2020 -27.7

2021 -31.4

2022 -29.8

2023 -28.4

Estimate 2024 -26.5 (before today's RNS they had it estimated at -25.8 for 2024)

Revenue (€m)

2020 22.5

2021 37.4

2022 31.2

2023 38.5

2024 38.9 (before today's RNS they had it estimated at 41.3 for 2024)

Adj. PBT (€m)

2020 -2.2

2021 0.9

2022 -1.2

2023 0.7

2024 0.6 (before today's RNS they had it estimated at 1.5 for 2024)

Target price now 8p, down from 9.5p

"This morning’s full year operational update from DKL caps off an excellent year for the group’s palm oil business, with a combination of strong production and historically high crude palm oil (“CPO”) pricing reported to have delivered one of the group’s best annual financial performances in this division. The group also provides an update on its first year of commercial production in its cashew operation – where the anticipated ramp up in production has been held back by delivery delays and underperformance of key items of shelling and peeling machinery. Although additional shelling machines were installed in Q4 2023, independent assessments have determined the need to replace certain machinery parts to allow production rates to improve significantly, with further investment of €0.25m expected to deliver production increases in Q2 2024. With cashew production likely to be below our previous expectations in FY2024, we adjust our forecasts this morning for the coming year to reflect a slower ramp up in the cashew operation, while leaving FY23E unchanged and noting that the underlying economics of this project remain strong once at full production. Although further delays to the cashew operation are disappointing, we continue to view DKL as well positioned for the future, with the palm oil business performing very strongly and the cashew project expected to deliver a meaningful increase in profitability as teething issues are resolved...With a strong end to the year in palm oil, we leave FY23E forecasts unchanged, while we adjust FY24E to account for a slower ramp up in cashew production, with FY24E forecast output reducing from 7,000t to 4,500t. Our fair value target is reduced commensurately from 9.5p to 8.0p, while we note there remains significant upside beyond FY2024 as cashew production rates continue to increase."

The full report is on their website, requires free registration.

Https://www.share-talk.com/rns-hotlist-with-zak-mir-orcp-dkl-enet-rbw-ukog-cbx-cyan-aqru-mhc-ccz-abdx-tek-xlm-trin-sae-shg-mks/

Zak Mir:

"It remains frustrating for DKL shareholders in the sense that the past year and before has witnessed the company delivering on its strategy, especially with regard to CPO production. For DKL shares to be anywhere near their lows appears to be something of an aberration."

@darientaylor, there are rival mills in the area, so they could be heading in that direction. Some of it will be eaten, of course.

There was no exclusivity agreement as far as we're aware, i.e. buy cheap from our nursery/sell to our mill.

Welcome to our world, HarChris. Now you can see what we've been complaining about all this time.

Well done to Troublingtimes/Stacegibbs for bailing out with another loss, not sure why you need to keep changing your username though.

More patience required here, but totally expected now.

Oh, hello Stacegibbs/Fundraiser222/Troublingtimes/Flash212, good of you to join us again.

I thought this was heading for 6p? That's what you told us last time. I take it you've bailed out again and now back to deramping?

Morning Fk1, yes it's another example of a very simple change that could be made to give investor confidence, but they refuse to listen.

It's understandable for the accounts reporting as they are dependent on the blue chips being given priority. During the last conference call, this was addressed again and that was the answer. There really is no excuse though for production figures to be set in stone on the 10th (or whatever date they want, just keep it the same or on the Monday after a weekend).

Harchris, you claim that it's a strange thing to criticise, yet years ago it was not uncommon for good news to be released on the 5th of the month and bad news to get pushed back to the 19th in order to reduce the time to the next RNS. I believe it's only down to investor complaints that they have moved to the more reliable 10th ish of the month, but even that (as seen today) is reliably unreliable.

* just about to

If DKL was half as good at producing CPO/Cashews as they are at producing shares and forward guidance, then I estimate long term holders would be just to break even on their investment.

We are all clearly singing from the same hymn sheet on DKL, but not always in tune. Let's hope for a better 2024 and in particular a complete ramp up of the cashew facility.

On that note, a Merry Christmas and all the best for 2024 to regular DKL contributors as we head in to what must be going on around a decade of service to the DKL cause.

In terms of who is dumping, Stacegibbs/Fundraiser has gone quiet again of late. Are you still around?

HarChris, there is surely no better case of "personalising the debate in what appears to be an attempt to stamp out alternative views" than by accusing posters of being 'stale and old', followed by telling them they should have sold up long ago.

Why would anybody sitting on a paper loss of 90%, due to a combination of factors - but mostly dilution - bother to sell?

That energy is much better spent holding the boards feet to the fire and hoping for the best (i.e. taking a punt) that things will improve in time.