Member Info for Jiving

Sorry you cant see what I am driving at Happyholder. I am using a discussion board to discuss a company I am invested in, and to so in more detail than simply saying 20p by Xmas or copy/pasting sections from the RNS. Some people prefer not to read company documents & seeking information to analyse & discuss, I clearly do & this board is where I come to post about those points & discuss them. Who is 'qualified' to discuss these issues I have already actually raised the issue myself saying I am not scientifically qualified or have experience in the sector (are you?) & was trying to find out if any regular posters were. You mistakenly assert I am trying to give advice, wrong I am discussing a company on a discussion board set up for that purpose. Crazy idea huh!

Now to 'condescending' well its clearly you who are being patronising & condescending. No I am not saying 'its a big, bad world', if you read what I write & you will see I am raising specific issues about China JVs (because we are awaiting payment actually a v pertinent issue), patent life, how co-crystal helps but does not solve biotech co problems, competition.

COPL. Yes I have been a regular poster for well over a year. I take a very sceptical view of management's statements & performance. If you bothered to read back on the board you will find many of the regular posters may not agree with me but appreciate I am trying to find out 'truth' in a v murky situation, and that we get closer to 'truth' by analysis & discussion, not just 'hoping it all comes good' and condescending comments about asteroids.

Feel free if you dont like my content/style to put me on 'ignore'.

Well given pharma patents have a 20 year life, there would be not much point in pursuing them if indeed they took that long. Where do you get that figure of 15-20 years, most I have seen have said a lower, wide range say 7-12 years. But also remember NFX began what around 2007/8 so in developing their ideas & technology they have already been around quite a while. BTW great that we can piggy back on board at a relatively late stage.

Looking at NFX patent granted dates I see US for NXP001 was May 2015, so if we are OK with the bio equivalence next year the licensees should hope to get final final approval when, some time in 2020 I would have thought. So 5 years from grant to drug availability in hospitals. Clearly below the average range if we get there by then.

You see Aim thats why I asked if posters were seasoned biotech investors. Have you actually looked in detail at 15-20 other small biotech companies to see if indeed NFX is a standout. Recently I have been digging around and there are other cutting edge companies with at least as much potential as NFX - those involved with gene editing via CRISPR for example. Also having a pipeline of drugs and not just say 1-2 is again fairly common if not standard across the industry.

NFX's drugs still have to get though clinical trials some of which are relatively 'easy' such as proving bio-equivalence but others involve showing clinical efficacy which could be just as troublesome for NFX as it is for other biotech companies. Co-crystal technology circumvents a lot of the issues/problems in the sector but its not a 'get out jail fee card.' The sector wide issues of competition, problems in the financial markets impacting pharma/biotech buyouts & political stupidity/interference have just as much impact on NFX as the rest of the sector.

Good stuff R_Dunc. If indeed they did recommence talks around 9 October we 'might' be looking at early/mid November for SPA. Which if the NNPC were as positive as Arthur indicated they were, 'might' mean they would meet quickly after SPA & approve the FDP & the rest before year end. A rationale for that speed is it would be a small boost to Buhari's record on expanding Nigerian oil expansion. At least its something going on after years of inactivity.

Must say feels odd going from very negative to mildly positive in under a week. Is it a sign of bipolarity I wonder, will mull than one over some Absolut tonight.

IMO its looking more positive at the end of the week than it was at the beginning. Mainly because of the new info from Arthur saying he is re-starting service provider talks & that after the 16 October RNS the EM situation seemingly does not effect that. If so what is the feeling regarding a possible announcement date, in the infamous first August Arthur podcast he gave us a month as a target for an SPA announcement, does it seem possible we might expect the renewed talks to also finish within a month ie circa 16 November? We surely would get an RNS if they are concluded successfully?

Well Jay yes & no. It is often using 'old' drugs for new uses. For example to use NFX002 to treat fibrosis is a new clinical use of that drug. Which means in that case they will have to prove via clinical studies its efficacy & suitability for the specific treatment of fibrosis.

My point about whether anyone was an experienced biotech investor was highlighted for me when I sent my bullish summary of NFX to a pal, who then sent it to a friend with 30 years in the pharma sector. He said yes its interesting they have got good people & a novel approach but actually so have a ton of other small biotech companies around the world. Before investing in one you should look at a dozen or at a good research report on the sector. Lastly buy a portfolio of them not focus on just one, partic as a non scientist with no sector experience. I can see his point!

If we assume they have got good people, great tech & a smart business model (& I do) there are still a lot of hiccups between now & our Ferraris. Starting with the Chinese - the company they had a great relationship with has been taken over, so the team they worked with is now a department/area in a larger company subject to the perspective & decisions of the larger group management. Maybe they agree with past practice & relationships, maybe they dont. NFX hope to finance their development over the next couple of years via up front payments & eventually royalty flows ie not highly dilutive equity placings. So the Chinese in particular who are de-facto financing NFX, would not be crazy to think perhaps they deserve a direct slice of the equity action & could play hardball to get it.

Of course there are lots of other issues further along - unknown competition for example, who knows what fibrotic drugs are being cooked up in labs in Japan, Boston, Brasilia. The big pharma/biotech companies are often US/UK companies reliant on financial markets to raise funds, what would a crash do to them. Politics is another area where regulation/price controls could dampen prices paid for new drug patents.

Was that order via the auction Rift - I use Interactive brokers and can only buy at the 5-6 daily auctions, which means the orders I place often stay in the market for quite a while.

I dont think Aim is a paid ramper either & have never suggested that. Lets try & keep on topic and focus on the company there is lots we should be discussing. Frankly I am worried about the China payment.

We know Dan runs a tight ship - brilliant & one of the things i like about the company. It is possible we are waiting for the money in the bank before a broker is hired?

Before we start seeing double figures I think the market needs to see the business/pharma model proved at least one more stage along the line as far as NXP001 is concerned, ie to the stage where we earn our £2m. Then we & the market can see the business/pharma model has been de-risked & we can have more faith in their ability to take NXP002 & others down the same development path to fruition.

R_Dunc. Really appreciate your input, like others I am committed here at a way higher price and very much want this to work. It has clearly been an issue that needed resolving whether Shorecan were going to provide 80% or 100% of the funding, so things had to be on hold whilst that was sorted. But surely at some stage in the process the service provider, and/or the NNPC are going to want clear legal approval to proceed from Essar Nigeria (the 100% owner of OPL226) as OPL226 is technically owned by Essar Nigeria & not Shorecan, and the Essar Nigeria shareholders agreement requires unanimity. The August 2018 prospectus also mentioned that final approval had not yet been given for the change of control of Essar Nigeria, again I wondered whether this also might require unanimous agreement from Essar Nigeria & therefore EM.

Again I appreciate your input & am feeling marginally less depressed about the situation than I was yesterday thanks to it! However I still feel that unless the Essar Nigeria shareholders agreement requiring unanimity (ie giving EM a veto over certain matters) is essentially toothless & worthless, that somewhere in this sequence of events their clear legal approval is needed. Where & when is my question, and of course a successful buyout agreement of their 20% makes the 'veto' superfluous.

R_Dunc. Good stuff from your emails thanks for sharing. The problem is I dont see anything from Arthurs characteristically carefully phrased response thats suggests we don't need EM's actual approval/signature before an SPA can be formally signed. Yes SPA discussions can continue but actually getting them signed so we can make an FDP presentation (with finance) to the NNPC still I suspect needs Essar Nigeria board unanimity, which needs EM on board.

If that were not the case & were unequivocally confirmed well hallelujah I'm a buyer, seriously that would be great news.

Indi & Jay. Just to see what the situation is regarding Essar Mauritius's position via a vis the Essar Nigeria Shareholders Agreement I went back to the June 2017 placing prospectus. These are the two relevant clauses regarding Shorecan/EM (P54 BTW if you want to check):

* The parties are not required to provide any other finance unless they agree otherwise;
* Certain board matters are reserved to the shareholders and require unanimous approval before proceeding;

Now surely 'certain board matters' are likely to include the financing & final FDP agreements, these are the key agreements that could potentially jeopardise a minority shareholders rights. So it looks to me that Shorecan need EM's signature on the agreements before we can go ahead and this is blocking the whole thing. So impasse & bad blood is catastrophic for us as we actually need them to sign.

No unanimity = no SPA
No SPA = no NNPC meeting
No NNPC meeting = no NNPC approval
No NNPC approval = no drill, no oil, no revenue

R_Dunc. I see your points but I just cannot accept this VTM interview statement that the situation is "...undoubtedly heading in the right direction." I absolutely don't see this heading in the right direction but the wrong direction fast.

I have not seen anything that suggests Shorecan has sent an updated proposal to buyout EM other than the first one that was rejected & seems to have sparked the crisis. Do you have a reference because of course its important.

In the interview with Arthur released on 11 October he stated:

"We are working to resolve the issue, and we believe this will happen shortly. We don’t have a timeline for when it will settle exactly, but it is undoubtedly heading in the right direction.’"

Contrast that with the reality of total impasse (ie no resolution) in the RNS that is issued only 5 (yes five) days later:

"The parties have exchanged correspondence setting out their respective positions but no formal proceedings have been issued in respect of the dispute and no other action has been taken by either party."

My final thought is its a disaster - moving away from a deal & towards confrontation that will drag on for months.

When Arthur made his two grotesquely bullish podcasts at the beginning of August he already knew this disaster was looming & how devastating it would be. Of course that meant the positive spin he was pumping was 99% likely to never come to reality in 2018 let alone 'within a month'. Once the placing proceeds were cashed he could't give a damn any longer & just sleep walked into this standoff. By December it will only be about Mozambique.

That takes a lot of nerve Bolton. Hope you made the right call for all our sakes!

At the current share price of 0.200 those who participated in the August placing are now down 40% in under two months. Surely Shore Capital as the placing broker for the last three COPL placings should be pressurising their corporate client - COPL - to sort this out on behalf of their investors. The message to COPL should be simple: no more placings till deals are done & deadlines met. Hence the planned April 2019 placing is off until positive results are actually delivered not promised.

Aim. I have had your defamatory post removed, you often seem unable to 'discuss' the company without insulting other posters. You cannot have any knowledge about what other posters are buying or selling, indeed how do we even know you are an investor here yourself. Sadly you appear to view anyone who is not a mindless ramper as a 'player' seeking to hold the share back, every Board seems to have one of these ramper/self appointed vigilante types & you are the resident one for NFX.

The person who has 'played' this share the most (leaving aside Ab'man) is you. You have been throwing out aggressive share price predictions for months now, none of which has come to fruition. I have never seen you come out with any meaningful information or even arguments to substantiate your predictions. You claim you have 'research' backing up your claims but never spell it out on the Board, note not to 'me' but to your fellow investors.

Petty. I don't think there 'has' to be an RNS regarding actual receipt of payment, but that if Dan is sensitive to shareholders concerns he will issue one. This is because the business model we have bought into suggests that NFX will be essentially self financing going forward from the re-listing in 2017. This payment is a key part of that plan and is also important to see that NSB's's new owners 'play the game'. Furthermore from an IR & PR perspective it is 100% positive so why not publicise it?

NoEasy. Exactly 100% right, the one luxury we don't have here is time. Don't worry Arthur has already lined up the February election as the excuse before the next 'pump & dump' planned for March 2019. No doubt the Proactive podcast slot has been booked, the pre-agreed questions already drafted & his latest rendition of 'deals within weeks & oil within the next quarter' has been rehearsed.

Thats why this disgusting lackadaisical attitude of Arthur's 'no timeline' when every other party to this potential transaction has a timeline except useless idle Arthur. Quite seriously what has that the COPL office in Ottawa been doing since January 2017 when Liberia was written off, at most they have had a couple of days work a month revising & updating submissions. Why aren't this 'hot' team sub-contracted out on a consultancy basis, the company has no revenue why not try to earn some - again lazy sloth-like Arthur can't be fagged. He would rather dilute us all by 50% once every 10 months than make any effort to earn some revenue. Look at the Canadian XOP share price since 2009 = -50,000%!