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Ex, thats an interesting & telling PSEI link that seems to be from their international site & clearly lists ZIOC as a 'Project':

"Zanaga Iron Ore Project , Congo SA – Study and Definitive Feasibility Study for MDP"

Back in February, Shaun unearthed 2 links from the PSEI Chinese site, the first outlined a presentation Marty made to key players in Beijing back in May (& so clearly named Zanaga & Marty!). The second did not directly name names but referred back to the first & went on to discuss FEED & pelletisation, google translate is shaky but you can see the connection:

"The Kunming PSEI Mining Department actively develops roller grinding technology and markets, and gradually opens the international market. At the beginning of the year, the bank-level research update and conceptual design of a large iron ore abroad were completed to inspire the confidence of the owners and help the project advance. The design of the beneficiation plant and pipeline FEED will be launched in 2025. The supporting cold pellet technology is also recognized by the owners. The research design of the pellet factory will also be completed by PSEI."

http://www.psei.cn/news/230.html

http://www.psei.cn/news/237.html

But the thing to watch is the volume - if somebody is accumulating (or dumping) - they can maybe, maybe hold the price but they can't hide the volume. And our trading volume has been abysmal since 18 March presentation, with the exception of the 19th when it hit 4.42m. Besides the 19th only on 2 days has it been north of 1m - 20th & 27th & on 26th it was below 300k. (Figures from Investing.com.) My take is - vis share price activity - we are sadly back to the 'same old'.

Hi Extrader

The BSL-Japan links you make are all very pertinent. The DRI & pelletisation workstreams are critical in appealing directly to steelmakers as product buyers (offtake) & obviously offtake/project equity investors. So these workstreams have the dual purpose of increasing theoretical NPV and potentially increasing competition for participation in the project to steelmakers. The Japanese here are critical as they have a long history of forming consortia to bid on large scale mining projects. In the past these have consisted of Japanese steelmakers, plus the Japanese trading houses & have even recently been extended to include Korean steelmakers like POSCO. That is a lot of financial firepower (heavily implicitly backed by their govts & v likely subsided one way or t'other) & of course the consortium structure spreads risk.

The personal links go back a long way. Elphick was once a very senior player not just in S African finance/mining but also politics. I scan read the Harry Oppenheimer ("HFO") biography 'Diamonds, Gold and Dynasty' and Elphick is in there at all the crucial meetings that took place between Mandela & the 'Anglo' business community. This is a quote:

“Clifford Elphick was present on almost all of these occasions. A sporty, affable go-getter who had started out as a management trainee in Anglo’s finance division, he was seconded as HFO’s private assistant in 1988. Elphick rapidly became the magnate’s blue-eyed boy: in the 1990s he doubled up as the managing director of E Oppenheimer and Son, having learnt the ropes from Grey Fletcher. He helped build up the firm’s private equity interests outside South Africa”

Elphick also worked with senior Anglo exec Tony Trahar, so the two men have known each other for decades.

Almost the identical post to your one of 12 March, that didn't work out:

"My 4m buy not showing up as yet….! With the AGM next week expected to move very swiftly!"

"Massive disconnect to current sp."

Indeed Marcus, & the Company also shows the range of per share valuations as a "Multiple Above Current Price' which for the 1028p example is given as 129.7x.

What I like about this table on P23 is it gives us their valuation thoughts & shows the critical importance of being DR ready & also pelletisation. The sections on both (P16 & P17) make it clear that successfully achieving these goals means the product (& of course potentially the mine) could be sold directly to steel producers - i.e a Japanese consortium.

"Strategic capability to sell product to electric arc furnace steel producers targeting ‘green steel’"

We have spent a long time over the years trying to work out what price the Zanaga project would achieve in an eventual buy-in/buyout. Well the Presentation on P.23 ‘Value Build Up’ sets out the Company’s 'Value per share' calculations (including 'Replacement Value' for costs so far = 112p!). They then set out the critical NPV based valuations according to the different iron ore price differentials including for the key 68% DR they are testing for, best case = 1038p per share!

They then use the Kami transaction as a precedent & extrapolate ZIOC share prices based on achieving a similar multiple, which they give as only 0.3 (ie a 70% discount to NPV). Thus, using that 0.3x NPV ratio, the best case 68% DR share price is 311p. Elphick & Co will surely be angling for a higher valuation than 0.3 but that is the one quoted on P.23.

On P.27 they give the actual equity injection figure needed to kickstart the project, which presumably is the amount they are seeking from strategics: “ Assuming US$1b equity investment into Stage 1, cash flows expected self-finance Stage 2 expansion.”

Do you have any links to reports of bandit activity along the pipeline route?

What are bandits going to do with iron ore slurry?

The bear points are very weak.

1.What has neighbouring DRC got to do with RoC - bizarre? RoC is an average West African country, which has actually been more politically stable than many others for the last 25 years.

2. The port issue has been largely taken care of, particularly now Arise boss is also now a significant ZIOC shareholder.

3. Financing remains to be settled but IMO is available 'at a price' we just dont yet know that price.

Over a decade ago Edison produced a couple of well researched reports on ZIOC. The one dated August 2014 is actually still relevant on a number of issues, including details of the Mining Convention. The conclusion they headlined then is similar to today, namely: "Funding is key to realise full value". Still available here:

https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/pdf4fd8e5d17c4518898851351dfa17d077.pdf

Ex, there is so much in that presentation, that it needs reading several times to catch everything. Couple more key points just from P.8;

1. Again re-60 mtpa "Orebody supports >30 year mine life, even at 60Mtpa production scale"

2. Main table, the status of Zanaga is now specifically described as 'DFS' = Definitive Feasibility Study.

Proactive: " The Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) is the cornerstone of project development in the mining industry, embodying the most comprehensive and scrupulous analysis conducted before a financial commitment to develop a mining project is made."

3. In the same table is Minas Rio which Anglo purchased greenfield for $5.5b & which I see as our closest historic comparable, although its pipeline is almost twice the distance!. Compare the resources:

Zanaga Total = 6890mt; Minas Total = 3937mt

Zanaga Reserve 2070mt; Minas Reserve = 1385mt

4. Massive future optionality emphasised. P8 "Only 27km of the 47km orebody length has been drilled to

date"

I have suspected we would end up with a bidding contest since the Port news, also that Elphick has been keeping multiple parties active & deliberately not 'going' with one - competition drives the highest final price. Also I would expect one or more interested parties to want to move before any bidding contest, as it is rational to seek security of price & outcome, that by definition does not exists once a bidding contest begins.

However, given Elphick has been plotting the end game since 2007 & has just undertaken the most dilutive placing in the company's history since the Xstrata deal in 2010, specifically in order in order to fund the NPV enhancing workflows. I am sure he will await the results, particularly of the DRI tests (with the potential massive increase in NPV) before seriously negotiating with any single bidder.

Whilst I anticipate any deal being at a discount to NPV, mitigating that discount is the incredible optionality that exists to go to 60 mtpa (as discussed yesterday) & above, which would work to narrow any discount to NPV - particularly if there are multiple bidders.

Soup & Trombone thanks for moving the discussion away from moronic PnD gibberish back to actual serious talk about the company.

Regarding the 'failure rate' back in the day when NXP002 was dubbed a 'co-crystal' we took comfort from the fact that tranilast was a legal treatment for lung related diseases like bronchitis in Japan/Korea/Taiwan. So it was not a pharmaceutical unknown & its clinical effects had been tested & accepted by the regulatory authorities at least in those (developed) jurisdictions. So my take has always been that IF we can satisfactorily prove NXP002 has a positive impact treating IPF (& related diseases), then the treatment/regulatory acceptance success % increases significantly vs non co-crystal drugs.

In the spirit of 'lets look at the facts' - please provide links to the 'independent analysts' mentioned in your post:

"The independent analysts are rating this as a strong buy."

Great point 99IC, working from theoretical potential we are heading towards Simandou scale but higher grade & more DRI friendly, at better NPV/IRR.

Thats called "Optionality+++"

A couple of times in ZIOC's history, mention has been made of the potential to increase the annual production from 30 million tons per annum to 60 million tpa. Importantly this got another mention in the table on P.22 comparing the economics of Zanaga with the recent Kami Project; in Point 6 'Scale Potential' this appears: "60 Mtpa mine plan produced" - note the wording "plan produced".

This of course, is the teaser to draw in sovereign backed strategics (Saudi, China, Japan) who ideally want optionality to provide increased DRI quality iron ore for expanding green iron/steel production going forward.

So the AGM 'news' was essentially just the same as last year's except they changed the dates. Another desperate PnD effort by the stranded D Team. Back to 0.07 we go.

I just signed up with name & email address directly via the Shard site. Nothing more was needed, so I paid nothing & followed a link sent to my email address to download the report. I am not a Shard client.

Is now available via their site. I am not a Shard client but was able to quickly register & download the full report.

https://shardcapital.com/capital-markets/corporate-broking/research-portal/

Everything is rapidly falling into place, first a key City presentation; next the first research report on the company in 11 years.

Well Always, I think we can safely say this RNS/Presentation way surpassed even our wildest hopes & expectations.

I love the massive valuation enhancement, potentially more than doubling NPV. But equally crucially the stated Q3 bidding process date means we have a near term valuation point at last.

Prior to the Q3 formal bidding process they are going to (P20) understandably "Assess offtake options". Which gives us a non equity dilutive financing alternative - possibly a direct offtake agreement with steelmakers?

P22-23 they use Kami Iron Ore as a comparable project, as I have previously suggested. We look v good in comparison.

Summary - simply stunning stuff, way better than we could ever have imagined. No wonder Marty & AT are throwing everything they have into it. Like other LTH I have been feeling uncertain, now I feel confident & vindicated particularly given the Q3 timeline - only up to 6 months out!