Member Info for Jiving

Ex, vis the soft sell in recent tweets. This could be a continuation of the similar type of guff Marty came out with in his first interview last summer. Perhaps he/they see an angle here with European 'green' investment funds. With Trump now actively chasing critical minerals, the Europeans need to start doing deals pretty quickly or there is not going to be much left - especially with the Japanese & the Gulf joining the Chinese in nailing down major projects.

OSS = ODD

OSD, I think we are thinking along similar lines here, except I am hoping for a partnership announcement after the OSS RNS. On a best case basis, a successful ODD application coupled with the successful data re-analysis results announced last week (Quote from RNS: "The data re-analysis undertaken was an outcome of on-going discussions with potential licensing and development partners") will have been specifically undertaken to meet the conditions set by a licensing partner. Box 1 was ticked with the data RNS last week, will Box 2 be ticked with the ODD RNS next week?

Back in July 2021 the company had a detailed research note produced by its then broker Allenby. It has been removed from Allenby's site, but can be found via the archive link at the bottom. This was their comment on the benefits of a possible future ODD submission:

“Developing orphan drugs is a well-established business model within biotech because the small patient populations mean that drugs can be developed faster (trials are smaller, only one efficacy study is usually required), regulators look more favourably on surrogate markers and, most importantly, pricing in the market is much higher. The two approved IPF products, which both have orphan drug status, are priced at ~$100k per patient per year, and this would be a reasonable guide for NXP002. Indeed, because of these factors the return on investment for pharmaceutical R&D in orphan conditions is probably considerably higher than that in non-orphan ones. “

Also noted this observation in that report - and this was when the share price was 1.95p:

“Given Nuformix’s market capitalisation, it is possible a potential licensor may consider acquiring the company outright (to obtain full control of the IP), a scenario that could be attractive to Nuformix investors.”

https://web.archive.org/web/20210715081548/https://www.allenbycapital.com/research_1251_1007749562.pdf

OSD, agree completely, I think there could be a very significant shift here. It is quite possible the ODD news will kickstart a revaluation of the share price. Orphan status adds significant value to any licensing agreement & also acts as a vindication for an investment committee - ie a neutral scientific regulatory body (the EMA) has deemed the drug to be worthy of a special privileged status.

The brokers own the warrants & when they exercise them is entirely at their discretion. Warrant (as long dated options) value is significantly time related - so exercising less than a quarter way into their maturity - is thus unusual as they are forgoing all the remaining time value in the warrant.

At GBP13,200 it is a small cash inflow, even by NFX standards, still it might keep us ticking over a couple more weeks! And the brokers take delivery of the shares on 18 April (Good Friday) so they will be long the week after Easter, when we anticipate an ODD RNS could be forthcoming based on precedent (9 calendar days & 7 trading days after COMP meeting would be Friday 27 April).

It is very unusual behaviour from the brokers. These would be the 2 year warrants issued to CMC Markets in relation to the 20 September 2024 GBP300k fund raise. The expiry date was 2 years from admission date which was 8 November 2024, so the warrants could be exercised until 8 November 2026. But they exercised just over 5 months into their 24 month life when they still have considerable time value left. They clearly wanted actual shares in real time ahead of the EMA decision.

I have always felt FMG are the most likely bidder among the mining majors. Particularly so given Twiggy’s de-facto control, which enables him to pursue targets relentlessly & without the need to secure agreement (accept token ‘formal’) from shareholders or the BOD. Their connection with Arise/Gupta in Belinga makes the Arise/Gupta connection with ZIOC particularly striking. If Gupta was the fixer/facilitator in Gabon for FMG, they might follow his lead into Zanaga & RoC, it is certainly going to bring the possibility to Twiggy & Co’s attention.

Otherwise I see our most likely suitors coming from the three ‘sovereign’ based/supported entities we know have been interested/approached, since the first Glencore deal in Nov 2022. Namely:

1. Saudis - led by Manara, possibly including Vale (developer/operator), the Chinese (as Baosteel JV partners; project finance providers & construction) maybe UAE (equity finance; port; logistics)

2. Chinese - we know Marty presented to key players in Beijing in May 2024. So they could go it alone or maybe via JV with the Saudis.

3. Japanese - again we know Marty presented to ‘the Japanese’ in May/June 2024. The steel industry have been big players in the offtake/mining world for decades. They maximise financial clout (& lower individual co risk) by forming consortia, consisting of the major Japanese steelmakers & the giant trading houses. Latterly the Koreans have joined them. They are extremely active in securing ‘traditional’ ore/coal supplies & state they are targetting high grade ore for future ‘green’ steel.

Exactly, simple reality - someone accumulating in an illiquid stock equals rising price & that is the opposite of what is happening here "There's no one accruing shares afaic, volume way, way too low, would take years to gain any holding that's worthwhile. "

Which is a v similar gap with Faron mentioned by Soup below, which was around 9 days from the COMP meeting to the company announcement. Perhaps there is a week or so pause before COMP informs the companies concerned who then potentially notify shareholders. Which would put our announcement in the week after Easter - which actually makes market sense as well to get Easter behind us.

Working from the official documents, it appears the COMP made the reco on 16 February 2016, so the Astra announcement came 9 days later on 25 February 2016. Formal designation was announced by EMA on 21 March 2016. references;

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/orphan-designation/eu3161624-public-summary-opinion-orphan-designation-acalabrutinib-treatment-chronic-lymphocytic-leukaemia-small-lymphocytic-lymphoma_en.pdf

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/orphan-designations/eu-3-16-1624

I have been looking for the same thing. I came across this Astra announcement regarding Acerta (a co where they held a majority of shares), which seems to be at the same stage we will hopefully be at vis COMP & the EMA next week:

"..today announced that the European Medicines Agency (EMA) Committee for Orphan Medicinal Products (COMP) adopted three positive opinions recommending acalabrutinib (ACP-196) for designation as an orphan medicinal product."

"The COMP adopts an opinion on Orphan Drug Designation, after which the opinion is submitted to the European Commission (EC) for endorsement. Orphan Drug Designation is a status assigned to a medicine intended for use in rare diseases.ix To be granted orphan status by the EC, a medicine must be intended for the treatment, prevention or diagnosis of a disease that is life threatening and has a prevalence of up to five in 10,000 in the European Union. Additionally, the intended medicine must aim to provide significant benefit to those affected by the condition. Orphan status provides companies with development and market exclusivity incentives for designated compounds and medicines."

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/medical-releases/acalabrutinib-recommended-for-orphan-drug-designation-in-Europe-for-three-indications.html#

Sorry about the repetitive post, it kept going to Gateway 504, so I gave it 15 mins & tried again. I will see if admin will delete.

This struck me with the BHP article, that depletion of existing mines is indeed frequently overlooked in looking at the iron ore market. Especially relevant given the extraordinary time lags involved in proving a new mine & bringing it into production (18 years according to Manara, on average for big mines). So this is a big hole in the market 'now':

“The thing that sometimes gets missed here is depletion, and some studies estimate depletion of almost a quarter billion tonnes of iron ore coming out of the market between 2025 and 2035.”

This struck me with the BHP article, that depletion of existing mines is indeed frequently overlooked in looking at the iron ore market. Especially relevant given the extraordinary time lags involved in proving a new mine & bringing it into production (18 years according to Manara on average for big mines). So this is a big hole in the market 'now':

“The thing that sometimes gets missed here is depletion, and some studies estimate depletion of almost a quarter billion tonnes of iron ore coming out of the market between 2025 and 2035.”

Soup I agree completely vis pharma news specifics, but market sentiment is shattered & that still apparently affects our share price.

And then the Trump tariff meltdown takes place - sometimes I feel we are fated with bad luck.

The Gupta/FMG angle is a good one particularly as they are partners in Belinga & face the same problems. The fact that Gupta is now not only a ZIOC shareholder but also via Arise supplying the key port access, must surely spark interest at FMG particularly as they made a last minute effort to secure Simandou in 2019 (ie we know they are interested in giant projects & are prepared to commit capital in W Africa).

The way I am reading it, it's the Gupta family holding company taking the ZIOC stake not the (muggo) Arise shareholders funding the high risk/low reward African infrastructure.

Great he is bringing it to readers attention, but bad he is confusing the 2024 FS figures with the figures from 10 years ago:

"According to an updated feasibility study from April 2024, Zanaga already has an after-tax NPV of between $1.9 billion and $3.8 billion"

2024 FS figures of course are NPV between $3.68b-$7.36b. With new studies potentially pushing it to nearly $10b.