Member Info for Jiving

See also a cancelled 20m trade from 25 October, difficult to know what is going on - maybe a rollover or yet more MM shenanigans.

Could be a mixture of reasons.

1. Essar being difficult and not providing necessary signatures & authorisations to proceed through to Minister's signature.
2. Shorecan & Nigerian authorities waiting to see if Essar sell their remaining stake, and are not intending to go through the authorisation process twice in a short period.
3. All parties are waiting to see what SP/finance provider (s) require in terms of a stake, before proceeding with ownership changes. Remember Exxon ended up with 87% of the Liberian field for stumping up for the drill. I note in most recent MD&A that COPL was anticipating being responsible for 25% of the Performance Bond - is that a reflection of its diluted stake post SP?

This is very wrong, Kola Karim via Shoreline is a JV partner of COPL in Shorecan. He is not responsible for the current situation re-OPL226 which as far as can be ascertained is due to negotiating differences between Shorecan & Essar. He is not responsible for our predicament & is absolutely not answerable to COPL shareholders. Seriously this is barking up the wrong tree, COPL shareholders should address concerns to management & IR.

Essar announced over the weekend that their financial crisis was behind them. They expect the remaining outstanding debt to be repaid in the next six months. They are not going bankrupt, and looking ahead intend to focus on their remaining assets.
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/companies/essar-leads-corporate-deleveraging-pays-off-14-lakh-crore-prashant-ruia/article29672590.ece

The Ruia's are playing a hard long game relentlessly wearing down creditors (and its working!). Asian billionaires never give up, some of the Thai ones were still squabbling over assets 10 years after the 1997 Crash.

https://twitter.com/GroupCopl

NoEasy. I live in Asia, my current info here is that Essar were in trouble but have now stabilised. They have lost their two prime Indian assets, the Indian Govt has made sure Indian creditors are OK & the Ruia's have been allowed to leave India - they had previously been blocked by the Govt. from travelling abroad. So my perception is far from being 'in trouble' they are in the process of rebuilding their empire which they dub Essar 2.0, and the UK oil refinery & their assorted oil E & P assets (including OPL226) form a key part of Essar 2.0. My fear is Shorecan are behind the curve in their perception of Essar.

RK. I will re-vitalise by COPL Action Group twitter account & we can make contact via that.

Cdnoil. I guess when you were told all the detailed plans for the development of OPL226 at the AGM, it wasnt mentioned that it was all dependent on securing the agreement of Essar & if that agreement was not forthcoming nothing would or could happen. The Essar veto has now stopped all progress for 18 months, personally as an investor I think Priority Number One needs to be cutting a deal with Essar, otherwise all the plans & financing etc etc are meaningless.

100% agree Sub.

Opul. Believe me I am frustrated as anyone, 2.3 years and counting as an investor. I think expenses should have been tackled way back, but I would assume the main engineers etc on the team are on contract (2-3 year?) and possibly could not have been easily laid off. Similarly in order to be able to attract JV partners like Kola & win/keep complicated offshore licenses like OPL226 you have to bring something to the table if its not capital (clearly not COPL) the only other variable is expertise. If Arthur gets rid of his team what is he left with? Essar & its financial struggles have been an ongoing nightmare for everyone involved for the last 5+ years, Shorecan seemed to have underestimated their ability to cling on to assets & not be a forced seller.

Bas. I think there is a genuine problem for COPL & any other company in a dispute with a JV partner - how much can you reveal about a conflict & might revealing ongoing information disadvantage the company? We all know info flow has not been good but given Arthur appears to have suffered a serious personal tragedy frankly we need to cut him some slack at the moment.

Opul, I dont think Nigeria is the problem at present, it seems to be all about cutting a deal with Essar, and has been about that for the last 18 months.

RK. The view is sit & wait. We need Essar out of the way & then everything falls into place.

The events of the last 24 hours have highlighted the enormous risk to the worlds oil supplies of the Iran conflict. Non Middle Eastern oil supplies are obvious massive beneficiaries for oil consuming countries like China - still dependent on ME oil. But Shorecan has (as in "HAS") to cut a deal with Essar to proceed, time they bit the bullet & got on with it: https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Saudi-attacks-raise-specter-of-oil-at-100barrel-analysis-601741

Rob, exactly thats what the current share price is about. Two great RNSs and we are at 8p, we need answers on our Yatai money before the share price can move forward.

At the August placing price of 0.1p.

RK, IF what we are told about Shorecan's good relationship with NNPC/DPR is true (& it looks to be) perhaps something like that might happen in extremis. We are told the NNPC are unhappy with Essar's past handling of OPL226, so if they continue to sabotage the field development going forward, maybe they will lose patience...?

Rift, I think Arthur thought the solution to Nigeria was to partner with Kola Karim & that seems to have worked reasonably well in sorting out the Nigerian angle. But it is the additional nightmare of the Indians at bankrupt Essar, that has proved to be the primary stumbling block for the last 18 months.

Not showing on LSE but can be found here: https://www.investegate.co.uk/lekoil-limited--lek-/rns/joint-update-with-opl-310-operator/201908300700056331K/

Interesting precedent for us, OPL310 has been in dispute between the partners which has stopped exploitation of the licence (sound familiar!). 23% has been in dispute which they have now decided to use to bring in a third party & finance (right exactly what we need). The Nigerian authorities are facilitating this transaction - looks like problem NOT with Nigerians but a squabble between 'partners'.(same for us?)

Berta, remember Kola is CEO of Shorecan, so at the Shorecan level (if not at COPL) there is a constraint on Arthur & Co's financial behaviour that did not exist at Oilexco.

Oilberta. Of course it depends how much news we get in the first release (s). If we get final approvals from NNPC/Performance Bond; plus identity of our partner/SP; plus an alternative financing package for COPL that is not massively dilutive - this suddenly will massively increase the value of OPL226 & our 40% stake.

I frankly feel we should be looking at a mkt cap north of £60m once news & implications have been digested.