The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with London Stock Exchange Group's Chris Mayo has just been released. Listen here.
The key is the artists promoting it, but then depends what deal they have I guess. Some of the 90% revenue must be going in their direction.
Streaming could be the game changer. Let's hope so. Frictionless scalability. And partnered with the most likely suitor to buy the business to boot. Great RNS.
A pleasant surprise. Let's hope we're in for a few more in the coming months!
All adds to the bottom line. Seems a no brainer that they will beat the BN estimates, considering the below comments from the BN....
'The upside potential from merchandising and streaming revenues is not yet fully captured in our forecasts. As such we believe these are relatively conservative and that LVCG will deliver strong performance against this basecase forecast model.'
So we have £1.25m profit for 2023 forecast, then £4.3m 2024 and £7m profit 2025. PROFIT you say....on AIM. Surely not.
Market cap £5m. Bonkers
Yes already in profit but to get to the BN estimate, I am guessing they will need to sell more. Perhaps difficult to judge how many more, but at least all of the higher priced tickets have gone, which is a big positive.
I think it is hopeful that the Live Streaming for Madrid attracts plenty of South American interest, but hopefully yes, a festival held in South America seems like it would be an obvious target if any new venues are to be added next year. BN assumes an additional day of concerts each for Madrid and Frankfurt in 2024.
I think the bottom line is they need to sell more tickets for Madrid and then London needs to sell equally well, then everything should be ok for brokers note figures to be hit, which, if they announce profits of £1m+ will rerate the SP. If tickets don't sell well, then we'll continue along the current path of SP and sentiment.
I asked whether they would release a TU after the event and he answered that he'd do one from the arena. Which feels like a promise that won't be kept. So long as they report the financials within 4 weeks of Madrid I'll be happy.
Streaming is the wildcard in the background. And Formula E sponsorship. We don't really know how big either of these deals will be. Lets hope they are big, as shareholders are due something to be pleasantly surprised about. I'm not expecting much from the merch, based on the fans comments, but then they whinge at everything.
I am hoping figures will be out in July/August for Madrid in the form of a Trading Update. DC said reconciliations will be be much quicker for Madrid, compared with Frankfurt last year.
This will be a question I will be asking, whether there are plans for a TU following Madrid that is going to state profit for the event.
Agree that only numbers will ignite the rerate though (and maintain it). Their previous behaviour indicates they don't care much about valuation and comms, so we'll wait and see.
And to the doom mongers, ticketmaster is there for all to see.
Simple - DC should have come out and added context to the RNS. I understand the nomad were restrictive in the wording and that this is normal practise when announcing a matter such as change of auditor. It stated however the current auditor resigned, which is apparently not the case and it was a case of the auditor being upgraded by lvcg, which I'm sure you'll agree puts a different slant on things.
Why stick the boot in on days like this though. Bids has had a mare the past few days by the look of it, but I wouldn't dream of rubbing peoples noses in it. That is a business with real problems by the look of it, unlike here it could be argued, which is suffering more from a lack of resources, planning and terrible communication, instead of existential problems with its business model.
If what Sarah said is true, and they have passed 'extensive due diligence with flying colours' with a top 10 auditor, then this is all just short term noise and value will right out in the end. Ideal for a trade, on days like this. Shame I'm skint!
Agree simple with all your words apart from his opinion being as valid as mine. I struggle with the mentality of somebody who was a previous investor, who has an axe to grind, who comes rubbing it in on days like this. We're investors like him and he's seemingly relishing us losing money.
Anyway, it is not important. It is very disappointing that DC has not come out with any comms today. Another two fingers up to shareholders.
If this does turn round Guzzler, will you be as vocal and visible? I think not.
Hanging around and sticking the knife in on days like today. We're all investors like you, you do realise that don't you? What is wrong with you man.
Sarah has said old auditors not leaving, but they have upgraded to a top 10 auditor, who has done extensive due diligence, which they have passed with flying colours, but this extensive due diligence has pushed back timeframes. They will be working hard to get accounts done ASAP.
That is not the picture you get from the scary looking RNS this morning. I am getting sick of this company not having any regard for people heavily invested.
There is no excuse for the bad planning and zero communication yet again to shareholders, but I am believing Sarah's words and hoping that the future is as promising as the BN laid out. Only time will tell whether it was right to keep the faith but I wish they would for once but themselves in shareholders shoes and view the wording of these RNS's through the lens of an investor.
Firstly to say, ticket sales being ahead of the BN adds further to mismatch in valuation, even if £0 profit is generated from streaming, merch and sponsorship.
I do hope they are clear on streaming though. There were big expectations last year and It contributed to the lead balloon effect in the sentiment and subsequent SP fall.
Because of the RNS wording for Madrid, we are left wondering if streaming will be live. I suppose on the flipside, why wouldn't it be live? Why would event organisers and associated parties needlessly leave money on the table by not streaming the event live. Answer, surely they won't.
The only question everybody will want an answer to is how much £ cash LVCG will get per stream and will that figure be all profit? BN mentions the Doors deal, but that was a non-live stream and in that RNS, it stated for Frankfurt, no mention of further gigs.
As I say, there was initially a big expectation last year in this area, which turned out to be a damp squib, so hopefully they avoid this sentiment own goal this time around and are clear with comms + deals. Streaming for Frankfurt was announced about 6 weeks before the event last year, so we are overdue some news, based on that timeline.
I am glad for you simple that you have finally been able to recognise just how undervalued this company is. Well done
But the BN was never about a rerate for me. It was about having numbers out there that the board are accountable AND backing up what others had speculated from piecing the jigsaw together with info that was out there RE £2m profit for 2023
Detailed forward guidance adding meat to the BN bones in the EY accounts would be very welcome.
Also hope they are planning trading updates after firstly Madrid and then London. Market might start to take notice then.
I’ve never seen a BN rerate a share. At risk of stating the obvious, execute on the numbers, starting with Madrid, and then reporting on it asap and we’ll be heading towards that 11p.
I'm not a super backer of anybody. I am backing what I believe to be a mismatch in valuation. Posting your thoughts on here might come across as abit cheerleader'ery sometimes but for me it helps to cement in my head why I am invested. And to also look at about potential reasons/risk not to be invested, like the ones you've posed.
Why can't Jason Lee do what DC is doing on his own? Well, possibly a number of reasons. He holds a chunk of LVCG shares, is working within the company and will presumably want to see a return on his investment. DC is a great deal maker. Bringing these smaller bands together to sell out arenas was his brainchild. SBS is the key relationship, to what degree is JL involvement in that relationship we don't know. And these festivals are happening in Europe, bar the Japan gig. Does JL know the terrain in Europe and have the contacts? Not to mention, the festivals are all annually recurring, so if JL wanted to cut DC out of the loop, then he'd have to work on additional dates/countries, given KPOP LUX would already have Spain, UK, Germany tied up. Not to mention, I am guessing JL would be tied into some kind of competition clause. And if he'd wanted to go ahead with these European KPOP festivals, wouldn't he have attempted it previously.
Retired Banker, I believe the note is conservative in that kpop streaming, merch and sponsorship have been left out of the numbers. It remains to be seen what these generate but global live streaming could be nothing or it could be significant.
And on the face of it, 50% growth may seem optimistic but it could be as simple as adding another date in the calendar of each of the festivals. Or adding another location.
The BrickLive business was valued at multiples of where the marketcap is currently. I could understand some of these grumblings if we were at a £30-40m valuation but we are at all time lows, with now 4 divisions, one of which is going to generate more profits than anything else before it. And using 99.9% of AIM as a yardstick makes the valuation even more farcical.
Whilst I agree the note could have been more detailed, it does say that the projections are conservative. Is it not common practice to leave a relatively easy target to meet and exceed?
The company will be self sustaining, in a high growth market. Streaming revenue and prospect of further K-POP festivals provide the realistic and achievable potential for further gains.
The numbers in 2023, if achieved, is a turnaround compared with how numbers have looked since Covid and at £6-£7m, the Group still looks vastly undervalued to me. Maybe I am missing something.
We got to £25m mcap off the hype of one kpop show last year.
Now a bigger share of 4 recurring annual kpop shows, which are de-risked, via the licensing model / guaranteed revenue. Along with the experience of the first one behind them.
Lots of noise recently from people not invested but the facts were the Group was/is massively undervalued. This time, incoming rise will be backed up with fundamentals.
Lack of hype around LVCG down to a lack of placing flipper twitterati action over the past couple of years imo. BUT Fundamentals can do all the talking, when they arrive. Ticket sales and tangible revenue from tangible visible events, not some usual AIM pipe dream rubbish. This is riding on the K-pop trend, backed up with SBSs ability to attract the acts that sell the tickets. What a great position LVCG are in with the K-pop division.
Hopefully Madrid sell out is closely followed by the updated guidance. One of the risks is a lack of demand for K-pop tickets. Current sales and social media engagement are putting that risk to bed.