Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The way I understand it, that gas sensitivity pricing is for the unhedged part of harbours gas sales. Gas is currently over 800p for winter this year, which would be an additional $275m per month extra. At least the way I work it out haha
What happens when the debt is paid off? It's looking likely that next year oil and gas prices will remain high. I think acquisitions are highly likely as well as much bigger shareholder returns. Shell has said it wants to return about 30% of profit to shareholders. If the same happens here it could mean multiples of the current dividend at these prices imo.
I've had a look at gas futures for H2. Assuming 550p, which is quite a bit under the 700p+ I've seen quoted for winter, HBR's unhedged gas would be:
350p above 200p a therm level. $110m more per 20p/therm rise = 17.5
17.5 X $110m = $1925m or $160m a month on average over the 6 months between June and December or $962.5m higher than forecasts. Or nearly the balance of the debt in H2? If the gas price is over 700p it would add another $250-300m. Figures will be before additional tax obviously. All imo.
Be good to see some more from BP. Foinaven is up for grabs and needs a new FPSO. The field still has plenty of oil and was producing nearly 30K barrels with no workover since it began production over 20 years ago. Also BP Andrew was up for sale not long ago.
Per barrel HBR is valued at about £15 per flowing barrel. When you compare that to other oil and gas shares recently making news it's around £30-50 per flowing barrel.
There is obviously the debt and decommissioning to address, but I still think HBR should be at least double from here. I also think they will need to look at some reserves growth as well through acquisitions.
Seems to me like they are trying to keep voters on their side. Especially those that liked the sound of the labour windfall policy on oil and gas. I do think it's a bit steep though, and as far as adding taxes they should've done this 40 years ago. Not when the north sea is struggling to attract investors