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Muminr, the REX shares will be needed if they are to reach the £3.9m worth that they need for the fundraise to go ahead, I'm not buying the REX shares but will vote in favor of them. The open offer shares are not enough by themselves, they amount to about £2m.
Nissan, the shares being issued on Wednesday are negligible, only £170k worth.
9p will equate to £50m mcap with the new shares, providing they raise the £6m required.
Also the REX offer is open to new and existing shareholders. Maybe they've got a large buyer lined up to take part in the REX offer.
Muminr, JC didn't say another hospital was going live actually, what he said was a couple more sites are coming on-board. I believe there are 10 or so sites that are trying to get the test, they're going through the process of obtaining funding.
Initially I misunderstood too, but realised after rewatching.
Guy, no not at all! The times I have been talking positively about the company and sharing my thoughts on potential upside were the times I was buying.
Muminr, I think some of what the company says is controlled by the Nomad / Broker and not necessarily what management wants to say. I'm always questioning their conduct and my main gripe is transparency, I wish they would explain their reasoning behind everything they do or don't do as that would build trust and help to quash conspiracy theories. They have done this quite well in the presentations but twice a year is not enough, it should be regular.
What I found odd was how often JC mentioned how much he wanted to find long term funding, his manner just made me think they had already arranged funding and were told not to disclose. Russ's body language made me question that too. However nothing was announced for weeks which made me think they may take up the £1.5m from RF with minimal dilution and wait until after NICE before doing a fundraise. I expect this funding has been in the works for many months.
I've decided to buy more in the open offer, as I see considerable upside next month leading to July, providing they receive the amount they need. If they don't receive it and the funding doesn't go ahead, then the money is returned.
Guy, I trade it. I hold for as long as I feel comfortable (usually months) and then sell some if I think there is no longer a high chance of further near term upside.
I believe we'll have revenue from several new AIHL sites in H2 plus revenue from the stroke marker test after NICE and UKCA marking. Potentially revenue from selling the stroke marker test for research purposes into Europe during this time too, before CE-IVD marking which is expected early next year.
Plus specialist commissioning for AIHL expected in 9 months time (April 2025), and if that comes through then revenue should really start rolling in.
When the shares are admitted to trading it will only be a few weeks before July NICE news - doubt it’ll drop at that point, there will likely be huge demand.
As the CEO I'm surprised he's not at least matching Ross's £25k.
Same here Roger! ...I've bought a large amount over the past few weeks thinking that they'll probably drawdown from RF, being that they could do so at minimal dilution (assuming RF agreed). Haven't gone in full though as I knew it was risky and they could do what they have just done at any time. It's odd that they're doing it now rather than when the shareprice is higher.
Hopefully most will chose to take part in the open offer rather than buying in the market, so at least they'll be very well funded.
There is still upside from the current level over the coming months, I haven't calculated it yet but I expect considering the dilution, 10p will equate to about 50m mcap which it should breach after July NICE news.
A drawdown from RF would be the least harmful funding method in the near time I think as the shares are issued at around 10% discount (from memory) which is not a huge amount of dilution compared to most traditional discounted placings. So I think the best method is to use RF to keep them going until after the July NICE news before doing a larger placing.
The thing is, if they decide to do a Riverfort drawdown and the longer time goes by the more likely it seems, then it suggests to me they may well wait until after upcoming positive news before doing a fundraise.
Roger, AIHL test I believe for 2027 (FDA approval expected then).
Not sure if we’ll get an update regarding the consultation as I don’t think we did for the first one or with AIHL’s consultations but let’s see.
In the presentation JC said that the required planned funding was one of the things the FDA partner deal was waiting on before it could be signed off. The news today makes me think fundraising has probably now been agreed, let’s see if a placing is announced in the next few days.
Some huge buys went through earlier. If there is an announcement on Friday or next week regarding stroke test this really will move up...
If there's anything I would expect it next week after the consultation closes. The consultation comments will be revealing I think. Even if the final decision is not published until July we may get an inclination from the comments after Friday.
Yes full recommendation coming, and crucially lab testing simply isn't going to be able to handle the number of tests required. There is nowhere near enough capacity for lab testing, so that's where the Genedrive test will shine. Additionally lab testing simply isn't fast enough in many instances, so again, the Genedrive test will be the best option.
Roger, regarding "final say"...
NHS have 3 months to allocate funding...
"Funding technology appraisal guidance
The Secretary of State has directed that the NHS is required to provide funding and resources for medicines and treatments recommended by NICE through its technology appraisals work programme. It normally has three months from the date of publication of each technology appraisal guidance to provide funding and resources.
Where it is not possible to acquire the technology or where, perhaps because insufficient trained staff are available, the intervention cannot be applied within the three month period, it can be extended. Extensions are granted by the Secretary of State, on advice from NICE.
The three month funding Direction has been waived or extended for about ten percent of the technology appraisals issued to date. They include surgery to aid weight reduction for people with morbid obesity, home compared with hospital haemodialysis for patients with end-stage renal failure, patienteducation models for diabetes, continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion for diabetes (insulin pumps) and photodynamic therapy for age-related macular degeneration."