Member Info for jimbobtechstock

2 simple binary questions: are you shorting this? Are you looking to buy in cheaper? I gave you a bit of a hard time to start with but then benefit of the doubt you clearly have some knowledge either through research or personal experience... But youre starting to sound like a broke record and I've watched enough shares in the grip of shorts and their associated derampers to spot a pattern in the trading recently and note your presence as a relatively new registrant with primary interest in one company...

Is really doing a number on this share. With the RNS out giving expected headlines from the FYR I can't believe anyone would be that desperate to get out ahead of results. I therefore conclude as per my much-repeated hypothesis that this may well be in the grip of shorters

OK course it would I missed the clue that the comparison with the previous year. Full revenue was over 31m so of course the comparison is line-for-like and there is a potential issue with like-for-like revenue dropping even excluding discontinued (£22.8m to £17.9m). But better be profitable at 17.9m than loss making at any other figure and they should still be able to pull a decent profit in the current FY. Of course though would like to see increasing revenue when they sort the sales issues out and maybe I was being over-optimistic that this would be addressed in the current reporting run....

I see that - but firstly the business doesn't have to RNS each and every contract win. In fact it smacks of desperation to continue to do that and not many of the awards in the last year were "materially significant" IMO. Also they're expecting to announce revenues for the year to August at £17.9m - assume this includes some from discontinued business activities - and in the same RNS last week they announce Q1 revenue of £4.5m. I don't think they've reported quarterly revenue figures - recently at least? But that's a better indication to me of the contract situation. It indicates they are on track to equal or better £17.9m revenue from the previous year. Doesn't matter what contracts this came from - just that they took an axe to the unprofitable parts of the business but retained the revenue (DISCLAIMER) I think what I just highlighted though is that we don't know how much of the 17.9m is from discontinued businesses. So maybe the devil is in the detail to be released next week. But if £17.9m is the true gross figure including business units aced through the year and £4.5m is for the remaining core businesses than they have actually grown the important bits of the business to replace the dead wood? And if the £17.9m does not include discontinued business at the very least they are on track to retain that next year. And whilst tread water doesn't sound good, if they're doing that at profit in the current year then it's a major step up from making a huge loss the 2 years before. It's a platform to grow from and an end to the placigs. And on the lack of contract news, they did announce they were still improving the strength of their sales force (and Theo I think it was mentioned he believed they had been through a lot of sales people). So it does all seem like a plan coming together. But yes we need to see the detail of the results next week

Agree - 9-10p is easily in the range and it still looks priced to fail at this price. Might take a bit longer for the market to accept the company is not still eating cash but the downside from here is, surely, barring extraordinary events and outright fraud from the BOD, massively limited IMO.

Probably shorts closing - MM would each have been their allowed 10% short well before the news IMO, and picking up shares to close off. As the deadline approaches I would imagine MM will rely on ISDX rather than cause a DCB here but I can't second guess their targets and risk factors and at least some of the MM won't be making market on ISDX (ISDX doesn't require 4 MM IIRC).

Yes I noticed shares being accumulated but only at a price - not prepared to take many over 6p, leaving large sells to go to negotiated trade a notch below the actual bid. I did say I thought a couple of the MM could be short and if they are collecting shares for themselves then that would add up. Also there could be another accumulator with DMA, but my money's on the MMs. Maybe they will use next week's telegraphed news to pump it and dump the shares picked up at 6p for much more? It might start a mini bull run if the timing is good - coupled with CEO interviews claiming the corner is turned and a week later it's traditional Santa Claus Rally time???! Well I can hope! I've been buying into the bottom but as you will probably remember I averaged down heavily on the last bottom and sold out as it touched just under 11p to give myself a respectable exit (pretty much broke even but had capital tied up for several years so doesn't feel good). I have always had a hunch that RH would be a good axe man and bean counter to pull this into profitability but I started to doubt that - when it fell after the 8p placing I couldn't help buying at 7p and now look where it is!

Did you catch it?

Someone still dumping - what am I missing? The write-down isn't great and the cash whilst it looks like it will balance is still stretched, but they have the invoice facility extended another year and what's left of the company should be showing profit and still a decent top line. Plus increase in sales in Q1 of the new FY. Yet someone dumped 262k shares at 5.75p, or at least we're supposed to believe. Is there something in last week's RNS that is bad, do people not believe that the results will match the RNS, or is someone still working this share? Are investors worried about a third placing? Sahid - where have you got to?

I can't see any other reason for not using STGR as the RTO vehicle for TRM other than they have worked out it is currently priced for a placing and that would devalue the share in BSM it owns - assuming Bass make all their targets, and there's some serious money and serious DD been thrown in to that in Australia, so I assume they will, then Stratmin will be sitting on £5m cash/equity from the deal plus another £3m in NSR over the coming years. It makes no sense to suck the rods currently (I assume) shorting this down for the next placing and gift the suits immediate ROI on that placing whilst diluting existing shareholders more than they have to. Only time will tell this is just my opinion I have no insight other that my correspondence with Brett over the summer (haven't communicated with him in months). If they can complete an acceptable RTO of a gold asset using either existing cash/equity (by my reckoning they have around £1m in cash and realisable assets) they should be on the way to cleaning this distressed register up. May also make some more profit from the TRM RTO from their current stakeholding.

Well I had my loose cash in MATD with an average around 3 so I caught a bag regardless but thanks for the tip, yes it surprised me it kept on going, doing a SOLG though it lost 2p today... also caught very nearly a bag off SEPU after the crash a few months ago so my pf will be positive this year despite the heavy loss here. If CPX with my LTH average under 3p goes where I hope it will it will be a very happy Christmas but that one has kept large portion of my capital tied up for 10 months. RTO news here before Christmas would cap a very good year on AIM for me but somehow feel it will creep into next year

I guess having had time to digest the news and chat over in private with a couple of other investors there was a fundamental shift in outlook with the last RNS. Until that RNS landed I was anticipating Stratmin continuing as a graphite company and the main battle lines would be around funding the JV mine. I had of course heard rumours of gold, because I posted them on here, but I had anticipated the JV mine would be front of the queue for development. With the shift away from JV mine (that now looks to be funded under its own listing) there's a fundamental shift in outlook here. Stratmin will have 2 reasonable investments in 2 graphite companies, Bass a producer and TRM a developer, but these will be secondary to the RTO. The information released makes me think the BOD now have a firm plan - they wouldn't be considering floating TRM if they were still entertaining using that as a replacement primary asset for Stratmin. As I posted last week I think the problem here is that Stratmin is priced for a placing and raising money for the JV mine at this price would dilute the existing and future equity stake in Bass that I'm still very confident we will realise. As it stands I reckon we still have a reasonable balance sheet in cash and marketable assets even after buying into the JV (and we'll probably be able to get a good return on the JV investment if that float is successful). So the immediate term prospects have changed somewhat - away from graphite and towards securing the RTO (which always would have been holding this back with the suspension deadline - 9 months left to complete the RTO, 3 months if to be completed before being suspended). The fact this looks like it's being held back additionally on the anticipated placing to fund the JV mine makes me think a bounce is still on the cards, however I must be sounding like a broken clock by now because I thought the bounce would come on the deal completing or on the JV mine environmental approvals etc. The investment case though, in shifting away from Graphite, has changed fundamentally for me. Still an interesting time but I'm viewing this in a different light now as I had firmly believed we would be focused on developing the JV mine, not floating that as a separate entity.

Also on the shorting question - notice how they dropped the L2 ask after 2 buys at 6.27p - it looks like someone is providing shares on the Ask, and once again I can't believe there will be genuine sellers - at this price - after yesterday's RNS. At the very least the RNS gives clear hope of a recovery, however you read it. I'm not surprised it alone didn't encourage much buying because as several have noted there's still a confidence hurdle to overcome. But I am incredibly surprised at the "selling" just as I am that the ask is on a downtrend. They are all small pointers IMO that someone is short here and is trying to dig themselves out of that position by keeping the price low enough to dissuade buyers. IMO.

Both of you got your 2mil for way less than half what I paid for my initial million! But thank you and good luck - and bring on the Tranche 2. I understand why the market is still nervous but once we get the RTO and Tranche 2 in the bag it should finally shake the negs and dregs.

Oh If I may respond to another couple of points: "They've now sold off most of the family silver. I doubt they'd get away with another placing. If the financial holes are not now fully plugged they are going to struggle." Sorry but I have to disagree. I first bought APC shares years ago when a friend of mine worked there. The attraction still is the core components division, now achieving "record bookings". What was sold is not the family silver but the risky bonds and futures that did give promise of exponential growth but also drained a lot of resources keeping that dream alive. As I have said I think lighting is exciting (to facilities managers at any rate...!) and this from yesterday's RNS is brilliant news IMO : " the refocused and profitable lighting technologies business" I think the Gooee partnership is incredibly exciting because Gooee bring what others lack - a unified control and management interface. Also Gooee have been raising buckets in silicon valley so APC caught that partnership at a ripe time IMO where it could blossom. At the very least it is unlikely to be a drain on our resources in the "refocused and profitable" lighting division. Another of your comments: "The selling of the water business, albeit about a year too late, should turn out to be the true turning point as they no longer need to fund propping it up all the time" I think credit where credit is due to RH here. I know how long it can take to find a buyer and arrange a mutually beneficial deal to offload business units so I am not grumbling that this has taken a year. Yes point taken RH was the man from GC so he carries some burden there but business isn't about making every call a good call - it's about making a good call when it really counts.

OK - thanks for your explanations and apologies if I was quick to dismiss your knowledge of the company. I still believe there was a deramper or 2 on here (other first-time posters) and I still believe the share at this price is being played. If I may quote you: "The RNS is better than I expected. The only caveat is, remember in 2015 they put out an RNS saying everything looked ok, then quickly followed it with another that effectively said 'oops no it isn't'" I think that sums up the lack of buying yesterday. I said at the time last year that RH might be a good antidote to the charmful abandonment showed by the previous CEO on his acquisition spree. I started to doubt this when shareholders were left in the dark regarding a lot of his operational changes but this week's RNS has restored confidence and I will be buying as soon as I am confident the market is not going to try shake it even lower. Because I am a mean cynic and I want every last penny from my averaging down, and if it doesn't fall further I have enough shares at 6.75p average to make it count. So no I don't think for a minute anyone at APC will fall into the same trap as last year. I believe the lack of communications has been a careful and reserved approach to sorting out the internals and not misleading the market for a second time. I believe the share is being played because I believe the 8p placing a few months ago established value at that price point with those taking part in that placing. Anything lower is either market nerves or market being played, or a mix of both (playing on the nerves). May I ask a question - do you know if any employee options scheme exists, or whether options or shares were issued as part of employee redundancy settlements (although I guess the market needed to be informed unless these shares were in treasury). Reason I ask is the 18% further cut in head count coinciding with a spate of hotchpotch selling.

Whilst I can't be 100% sure on APC I know for a fact that shares like this get shorted all over AIM, mainly by the market makers who literally stop holding shares in many AIM companies that don't have broker support - ie they are nearly always short so that when the next AFPO comes along primed for delisting they have zero exposure. Evidence gathered here and there includes asking for share certificates which have the closure date several months after I bought, seeing holdings RNSs for other companies with shares noted as being out on loan, once being told flat out by an investment banker they were shorting the hell out of a tiny mcap company, being offered large mark-up for private sale of shares I'd written off during a suspension period (why else would they want my shares in a suspended company at a mark up except to close a short). As I said I can't be sure but if it is being shorted now we should see the gap back to 8p closing at some point in a single snap.

Forgive my scepticism, as you do seem to know a fair bit about the company, however your first couple of posts were very negative about the company. You were talking about red flags, poor CRA checks etc. I have no idea why you started posting, but you did suggest quite clearly that APC might be on the brink of collapse. Just 2 days ago, on Tuesday at 17:55 you posted: "My personal view - from research and experience - is that this is a lame duck and I doubt it can even survive. " That's quite a strong statement. And yet today's RNS is clearly at odds with that is there is cause for hope. The audited accounts - and remember this won't be just CEO bluster when the accounts are published in 2 weeks time as the auditors will have signed them off - are expected to show there is an underlying profitable business. On top of that, components orders in q1 of the new FY are up significantly and lighting is reported as currently profitable. We are lead to believe we might be looking at revenue of around 17 million in the coming year, even in the leaned-down business, if the Q1 revenue of 4.5m can be repeated or bettered in each of the other three quarters. So we might be looking at a leaned-down business still taking a good volume in revenue a margin of, say, 10% which would value APC at anything between 6p and 18p based on PER of between 5 and 15. 12p for a PER of 10. And in your most recent post you seem to have changed your view somewhat: "Personally, I think with the water sale they will have turned the corner. There's nothing in that RNS that is inaccurate." OK - great. But I don't quite understand what the crux of your beef is with APC and why you landed here at a time when the charts suggest shorts opening along with another first-time poster posting the company had no strategy. This has been a relatively quiet board for quite some time and suddenly it' a hive of activity.

If your into this stuff (a) posts missing from both this thread and our other mutual friend over there. Wonder if LSE actually are on top of the boiler rooms? (b) You might want to take a read of my last 2 posts on another share before this. That share is being totally played.

At the very least all genuine holders short or long term should be reassured by today's RNS. Plus it's what's been screamed for - some kind of update from the BOD.