Member Info for jimb2

I'll stick with my odds, in chronological order:

My view on the likelihood of :

50% A resolution under A_L.O's leadership before October 2024

90% the newly formed gov reverse the cancellation by end of 2024 (by end of Nov more likely)

99 % International arbitration rules in our favour

First on the list : 50% chance, A_L.O is not parting company without the recognition that he established the lithium industry he's narcissist above all else - as I see it (it's been a complete SS - even litoMX and Pablo Taddei are off radar)

Sonora isn't going to be producing from clays in the next ten years without Ganfeng - how costly will that be - Mexico have an energy supply crisis - defo climate change related so new plants will only add to that - Mexico need Ganfeng and the likes of BYD who have their concerns.

Https://www.northernminer.com/news/get-ready-for-more-disputes-about-whats-mine-and-theirs/1003868983/

See how needy they are for a lithium industry

Intrigued,

The Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard was appointed June 20th, the title of the party named in the arbitration, the submission was 21st June - probably coincidence!

Now see how an autocratic narcissists behaves!

https://www.reuters.com/business/vulcan-rejects-mexicos-illegal-expropriation-its-investments-2024-05-27/

I'm intrigued because neither Marcelo Ebrard or Sheinbaum seems to have responded to the arbitration, and here's another post pointing out the best way forward with some observations!

https://heraldodemexico.com.mx/opinion/2024/6/25/sheinbaum-el-desafio-del-litio-615188.html

She was vocal in her support for A_L.O up to the election!

I'm becoming more convinced the new government are just waiting for their term to begin to recover from the colossal mistakes.

Unfortunately our neighbour is in trouble:

https://news.metal.com/newscontent/102662494/core-lithium-could-face-compounding-financial-liability-due-to-unmet-offtake-obligations-with-ganfeng-and-yahua

If the situation occurs, Core Lithium is obligated to pay the customer the difference between the agreed price and the price of customers' actual payment for the replacement supply of spodumene concentrate. These potential liabilities further add to the disadvantages faced by Core Lithium.

I do wonder if Ganfeng will make a move for them or perhaps a JV with Pilbara Minerals, then perhaps BP33 will come into play?

My view on the likelihood of :

50% A resolution under A_L.O's leadership before October 2024

90% the newly formed gov reverse the cancellation by end of 2024 (by end of Nov more likely)

99 % International arbitration rules in our favour

An interesting view,

Deep Waters / Sheinbaum's first defeat and AMLO's last

https://www.elsudcaliforniano.com.mx/analisis/aguas-profundas-la-primera-derrota-de-sheinbaum-y-la-ultima-de-amlo-12157800.html

The reform to the Mining Law has already unleashed a wave of injunctions; some have been definitively suspended, others are favourable to mining companies and others are not, and the unconstitutionality action filed by opposition legislators due to defects in the legislative procedure, mainly, which was admitted for processing by the Supreme Court in June 2023, is still pending resolution.

The Mining Law, before it was changed, stated in Article 10 that exploitation can be carried out through concessions that demonstrate technical, legal, economic and administrative capacity. And it granted the right to exploitation and benefit.

The 4T was greedy in the Ganfeng Lithium case and forgot about international treaties. Will the law not be the law in the case of international courts as well? It is estimated that Mexico has lost in this field.

Yes I agree, @Dallazdas

Some past press before A_L.O took charge of the lithium industry

https://rebelion.org/visita-de-anthony-blinken-secretario-de-estado-de-los-ee-uu-a-mexico/

The Secretary of Foreign Affairs of Mexico, Marcelo Ebrard, highlighted in statements after the high-level meeting that the United States invited Mexico to be part of the effort for North America to become a region that promotes electromobility and the production of semiconductors. , the Sonora Plan to establish the national exploitation of lithium and clean energy in that state. It is a historic opportunity for Mexico, said Marcelo Ebrard.

It should be noted that the Mexican state-owned company LitioMX was formed on August 23, and on September 20 it will have its first Board of Directors. This is not a nationalization of Mexican lithium. Private investment will continue to have a strong presence, because they have the technology and resources to invest, such is the case of the Chinese mining company Ganfeng, which in 2021 increased its participation in Sonora's clay lithium from 22.5% to 50%. And that is even though production in the region has not yet begun.

His legacy!

@Dallazdas,

A_L.O wants a result by September IMHO, there's no mention of Ganfeng being part of this meeting.

What we know in April:

The president, however, offered to "seek a solution," noting that he had raised the issue in April during a visit by the Chinese government's special representative for Latin American Affairs and vice president of the China Public Diplomacy Association, Qiu Xiaoqi.

Of course in June Ganfeng proceed to the international arbitration so I would say they are sticking to their guns.

Marcello Ebrard is now economy minister, with a diplomatic background - no stranger to the Chinese.

https://www.gob.mx/sre/prensa/secretary-marcelo-ebrard-decorates-former-ambassador-of-china-with-aztec-eagle?idiom=en

A_L.O has done it in the past working behind the scenes to prevent arbitration, I just don't see Ganfeng backing down.

So simply, A_L.O has until September to strike a deal or leave office with the legacy of failure to get the lithium industry underway, come October maybe November Ebrarb will want to get things moving in Sonora whether that includes Ganfeng or not.

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/politics/marcelo-ebrard-interview-trade-nearshoring/

Asked what the “pillars” of the Mexican economy will be in the coming years, Ebrard nominated “the relocation” of companies to Mexico, but stressed that foreign investment in Mexico must serve “the country’s interests.”

New gov takes office October 1st - two years more or less from when he stated:

During the IX Pacific Alliance Business Summit, Ebrard announced that Mexico is prepared to receive lithium-related investments. To date, the country has agreed on funding coming from South Korea, China and the US, the latter as part of an agreement to produce lithium batteries in Sonora.

Ebrard did not discuss the exact amount of the coming investments, arguing that this is confidential information from private companies. However, he elaborated that those investments will materialize between 3Q23 and 4Q23.

Two years wasted!

Indeed @Zoom56,

Ebrarb is a real diplomat with great experience, from todays news seems A_L.O had a visit in April,

The firm owned the concessions after the acquisition of Bacanora Lithium, which gave it control of the lithium mine in an area with reserves estimated at about 243.8 million tons, one of the largest deposits in the world, according to the Government of Mexico.

But López Obrador recalled that he reformed the Mining Law in April 2022, when he declared lithium as a mineral of public utility whose exploitation will be the exclusive power of the State through a new public company dependent on the Ministry of Energy.

"Litigation is being carried out because we consider that the lithium belongs to the nation, they had previously given that concession and we consider that it was given in a generic way, not specifically for lithium, but for mining, and we think that it is not It applies that this claim is being made," he argued.

Even so, the president offered to "seek a settlement" by pointing out that in April he addressed the issue during a visit by the Chinese Government's special representative for Latin American Affairs and vice president of the Chinese Association of Public Diplomacy, Qiu Xiaoqi.

I'm glad Ganfeng have taken the arbitration path, A_L.O is flipping it back to lithium not being part of the concessions - LOL that can't look good in court for their case!

All good whether he strikes a deal with Ganfeng or not, Sonora is so critical now for Mexico!

I still believe we will get a pay day from Sonora.

Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/mexico-seek-deal-over-disputed-145302361.html

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Thursday that his government will seek an agreement with Chinese lithium miner Ganfeng while still defending Mexico's rights, after the firm filed an arbitration case over a disputed concessions

Boring:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/mexico-seek-deal-over-disputed-145302361.html

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Thursday that his government will seek an agreement with Chinese lithium miner Ganfeng while still defending Mexico's rights, after the firm filed an arbitration case over a disputed concessions

I do believe things will move forward with Sonora this year,

Whether this includes Ganfeng remains to be seen but Marcello Ebrard had plans back in November 2022:

The Mexican Minister of Foreign Affairs, Marcelo Ebrard, announced that Mexico would start the production of lithium batteries in 4Q23, made possible by investment from the country's trade partners and Mexico's recently announced Sonora Plan.

During the IX Pacific Alliance Business Summit, Ebrard announced that Mexico is prepared to receive lithium-related investments. To date, the country has agreed on funding coming from South Korea, China and the US, the latter as part of an agreement to produce lithium batteries in Sonora.

Ebrard did not discuss the exact amount of the coming investments, arguing that this is confidential information from private companies. However, he elaborated that those investments will materialize between 3Q23 and 4Q23.

And this week:

https://www.americaeconomia.com/en/node/287439

BYD's plans to build a plant in Mexico will create around 10,000 jobs, putting it on par with some of the country's largest car factories.

The electric vehicle giant is in final negotiations for the location of the facility, and an official announcement is expected in the coming months, explained Jorge Vallejo, the general director of BYD in Mexico. However, it has not clarified how many of those workers would be employed directly by BYD versus contractors or suppliers.

The new Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, under the future administration of the elected president Claudia Sheinbaum, was in charge of confirming this news, announcing that he will closely follow this investment in his new position.

Could he be the person to give A_L.O a get out of jail card?

Worth a read:

https://www.braumillerlaw.com/sonora-lithium-significant-supplier-of-battery-grade-lithium/

An interesting appointment:

MEXICO CITY, June 20 (Reuters) - Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum on Thursday named six members of her incoming cabinet, including political heavyweight Marcelo Ebrard as economy minister, putting him in charge of trade negotiations and causing the peso to rally,

That could speed up things!

And another:

https://elpais.com/mexico/economia/2024-06-25/la-minera-china-ganfeng-lithium-inicia-un-arbitraje-contra-mexico-por-la-cancelacion-de-sus-concesiones-de-litio.html

Through this international arbitration, Ganfeng Lithium and its associates intend to recover power over the mining concessions that they obtained more than a decade ago in Sonora, as well as to receive economic compensation, even though it has not been calculated, for the damages derived from the violations of the bilateral treaties. investment agreement (BIT) between China-Mexico and the United Kingdom-Mexico. The company also wants interest paid and all relevant arbitration costs and fees.

Another view:

Based on the international agreements that exist between Mexico and China , the litigation initiated by the Ganfeng Lithium company establishes that if it wins, the Government of Mexico must comply with the replacement that entails the suspension of operations in several entities in the country, among them Sonora .

https://www.eloccidental.com.mx/finanzas/mexico-pagaria-compensacion-a-ganfeng-si-arbitraje-del-banco-mundial-es-adverso-expertos-12137908.html

I'm sure those BIT agreements being available will make for some interesting reading over coming days.

This is really propagating the news on many platforms, this is a good account of what happened:

https://expansion.mx/empresas/2024/06/25/lucha-por-litio-arbitraje-china-ganfeng-y-estado-mexicano

Well there will be many versions I'm sure, good that the BIT agreements are easy to find in their entirety for those interested.

One for you @Dallasdaz

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyhC2_rque8

Great coverage all over - Sonora coming back to haunt!

Https://www.elsoldecuernavaca.com.mx/finanzas/minera-china-ganfeng-lithium-egistra-queja-de-arbitraje-contra-mexico-en-banco-mundial-por-concesion-cancelada-12134128.html

Great getting that coverage I was hoping for, now how long before we get mentioned although a few weeks behind we are be part of the bigger picture!

Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-24/top-china-lithium-firm-files-international-claim-against-mexico?srnd=homepage-americas

Https://www.mining.com/ganfeng-sues-mexico-over-lithium-permit-cancellation/