Member Info for JES1889

Adding my thanks too thevid. That is an excellent video, really nice layman’s explanations and demonstrable enthusiasm and excitement from CC.

My optimism is high here. Instinct tells me they could be doing deals at this stage that would remove the funding anxiety for PI’s but that they know this is not the way to go. The pipeline advances together with the Tempus AI work on identifying patient populations and addressable markets feels like it has been a game changer. I think they know they have a “tiger by the tail” and are determined to keep hold as long as possible.

A few have referenced the Prometheus playbook, this still all feels on track to me, albeit with a platform that has an enormous addressable market.

The other part that is amazing is we’re talking about efficacy (PFS) in a phase 1a trial which is about safety and where the patient population were heavily pretreated and almost at the end of the line in terms of treatment options.

I presume that our 5 months and counting (with the above caveats re 1a and pretreated population) is being compared to 3.5 months PFS for Dox where it may have been used on what could be expected to be a more responsive patient population.

I think the leadership team could do deals now if they want to but that these would not be reflective of the value they believe we have which will continue to grow as we progress towards PH2.

I'd be happy with them shoring up the finances to get past this years audit by selling Dx and quietly continuing with the science, updating the market as and when appropriate. We don't need any cash for P1b (assuming Dx sold for the sort of values discussed on here) so why would we finalise a partner deal now when we can surely drive a better deal in 6-12 months time with P1b data, including TNBC. This doesn't mean that 'deal discussions' aren't happening now, i expect they will be, but it means we won't be 'inking' anything until the time is right for us.

Harrogate4....

Similar numbers and timeframe for me.

I prefer the new comms and don't want a running commentary. Set out the milestones, report against those and anything else that they have to tell us from a regulatory perspective. Close the leaky comms through 'friends'. I'm quite happy to snooze in between.

I'm also hopeful that they are focussed on the big prize not the soonest one. That works for me too.

Quarterly HC dilution is not ideal but will be forgotten if/when the big prize arrives.

Sorry gmcc, my bad!

AIPm - CSO was announced in the RNS on 15th October.

That's a big one (450K shares at 44.65). As always not certain if buy or sell but given the price range today perhaps more likely a buy.

Not that i'm an active chartist, but I've always had a liking for keeping an eye on Bollinger Bands - and they're tightening up.

It remains very hard to call short term but personally I remain positive and patient long term.

ES, whilst the loan and dilution and games played with the SP are frustrating I’m with CJ, I’d keep the cash and settle in shares for now. If the science delivers then I think our weakest point, at least whilst we’re on AIM, is our cash runway. Whilst ever we can maintain a strong cash position then our commercial leverage, and ability to delay a commercial deal to maximise value, is stronger.

I think the NASDAQ listing / US Healthcare II is the time for clearing the HC loan. Hopefully that occurs during 2025, so much less than the full 3 years HC dilution.

Wyn - I think that’s all fair. Only caveats for me are Aim is a circus, in my opinion, and largely controlled by the people who work in the market and make their money from knowledge not available to everyone else - lots of example, see our placing behaviour for the 2+ weeks before. It’s also clear, and I think widely accepted, that the UK biotech II players are very poor, which makes it difficult to get a cornerstone II shareholder base. Hopefully that’ll change with NASDAQ.

Secondly, in conjunction with the above, a change in retail sentiment has the ability to cause SP’s to move very quickly on Aim.

Final point, I respect your approach but I don’t think it reflects very well on you when your posts turn so obviously negative when you switch from in to out. Personally I’d rather there were far fewer posts on here and a focus on people sharing relevant research and their opinions on that. On that basis I’ll shut up now.

Touk - i don’t agree, i do think boards and social media can effect share price. Not just the AVCT board but many others. It’s pretty clear some days that there are targeted efforts, not just Fud but rampers too. If it had no impact there’d be no point in doing so. I do however totally agree with your list. Some see it as a bit of fun, not me, clogs the board up and pointless.

Wyn, I don’t want to, and nor do i expect to, live in an echo chamber. I’m interested in all perspectives. It is also not for me to publicly judge whether your, or indeed anyone else’s, posts are made with ulterior motives. I think when people post they know themselves why. These boards, and Telegram groups and X is awash with people trying to contribute to shifts in short term sentiment for their own gain. In my view it is anyone doing that is morally bankrupt - it’s a self assessed definition, only you (the person posting, not you specifically) know if they’re doing so.

I agree that yours, and others, largely negative views here have to date been accurate here based on the share price. Unfortunately it has been a ‘leaky’ traders dream over the last couple of years aided by the HC loan. I also sense that with CC the leakiness may have ended. She also seems less likely to pander to the “we must have an update now” brigade. As you say a risky early stage biotech was never going to be a straight line up. I and others who are optimistic here are backing the science and the new (US focussed) management team to deliver the science and commercial execution we think is possible, maybe using the Prometheus playbook. The share price currently doesn’t believe that. Given the oncology patent cliff issues for some BP there might be an early mover. If not then I’m prepared to wait.

Yep PL75, that's the route, let's hope it's straightforward!

People trying to influence others thoughts for their own personal trading gains (both ways) from the higher profile websites, market participants and BB posters are in my opinion low individuals. Facilitated in doing so, again in my opinion, by the weak regulation on AIM, poor management teams and the general complicity and unprofessionalism of many who earn their living in this market.

I like the phrase "people who pick bottoms get smelly fingers". I'm more of a do your research, keep reviewing it, but back your horse type of investor.

I absolutely do hope that the big returns, if this comes good, are achieved by those who have generally taken a long term view and certainly not by any of the Pumpers or the Fudders. If anyone happens to get their timing right then good luck to them, hopefully they've done so without being morally bankrupt along the way.

Agreed PL75. I did a summary of the Prometheus timeline a week or so ago with the same conclusion.

Other than filling time, there's literally no point in most of the bickering on here. CC is clearly not going to provide the same running commentary that her predecessor did making trading trickier. A razor sharp focus on deadlines, and meeting them. She has stated that she is not interested in any early / under value deal. Very little for the manipulators of the mood to play on now. Yes we'll get the quarterly issues and games with the HC loan but other than that i think news is going to come without warning, like Tempus. Maybe a deck update with some TAM figures! Hopefully some people will get caught by being out when 'big news' happens.

Sell Dx, satisfy auditors at the end of 2025 Q1, keep trial progressing in line with plans. Continue to network with BP and wait until someone blows the doors off!

Final point - anyone else think the downward pressure each day at the moment might be a recently departed employee exercising options and selling? 100K sell most nights after hours. 2.3 million or so to go at when he left 14 trading days ago.

AVCT - agreed, i think that is exactly the point. Under CC’s leadership, and with the team being assembled, the trial and the corporate face of Avacta is heading to the US. That’s where the investors are who understand biotech are and it’ll be where the SAB and our Exec team have the contacts.

Another important factor will be interest rates which have a very material impact on the DCF calls of businesses like early stage biotechs with far out cash flows. When Prometheus did their IPO rates were at or around zero, when they sold in 2023 they were heading to 5%+. With a bit of luck rates will continue to drop and by our exit time will be more favourable than they were for the Prometheus exit.

The TAM numbers will add a big piece to the analysis jigsaw but it doesn’t sound too far fetched to think that we could get back to £400m MCAP with a DX sale, March 25 audit sign off, trial progress and NASDAQ expectations. Raise a fund of £100m from NASDAQ / Biotech specialists / p/ship to get the runway and leverage for BP conversations. Progress 6K to approval. Big rise in share price and TO?

Fantastic watch this and very many parallels to Avacta.

I’ve been doing some digging, shared notes…….

- started out with both DX and TX, needed to make pure play TX to attract specialist investors

- raised specialist funding (before IPO), and built an experienced team, to build the story that they were prepared and able to launch the drug themselves

- the funding pre IPO extended the cash runway as well as provided commercial validation. Deal was restricted to future potential revenues in European market.

- built in optionality by having a pipeline based on a platform, “more than one shot on goal”

- built their own playbook, with investment bankers on board, used as a guide as trial progressed. Good results = more prepared to go it alone

- presented a strong message that not prepared to deal / partnership at values which undervalued shareholder position

- recognised that maximum values can be achieved with strong P2 results. Started P1a Dec 20-2020, IPO raised $125m at $650m Market Cap in Mar 21, Started P2 July 2021, share price more than doubled during P2, reported P2 results Dec 2022 (SP roughly trebled), sale announced Apr 23 (SP roughly doubled).

- maintained respectful dialogue with BP throughout even though they (Prometheus “PB”)) had said they weren’t looking to partner

- Merck investment case also highlights the extensive data held by PB on patient populations as well as the diagnostic capabilities used to identify patients with characteristics most likely to respond.

Deal deck -

https://s21.q4cdn.com/488056881/files/doc_presentations/2023/04/Acquisition-of-Prometheus-Biosciences-Investor-Event-Slides-FINAL.pdf

- TAM for UC and CD estimated to be $28m in 2028 (5 years post deal)

One very significant difference between the two situations though is the fact we’re a U.K. public company, which brings some pros and cons.

Watching the video and researching it does feel like we might be following this play book. It will be helpful to get some feel for our TAM for each asset. The wider cancer/oncology drugs market in 2024 is circa $180B and growing at over 10% CAGR.

If we are playing the long game and shooting for the bigger valuation, it doesn’t mean that there can’t be attractive returns in the meantime as demonstrated by PB and their IPO in P1 and SP doubling during P2.

I appreciate that everyone has different timescales but i would prefer us to follow this path…..

H1 2025 - sell DX, extend cash runway beyond March 2025 audit sign off

H1: 2025 - TAM information released

H2: 2025 - initiate AVA6K P2

H2: 2025 - Dual Listing on NASDAQ, Introduce US Sector investors and/or commercial partnership for part of pipeline

H1: 2026 - initiate P1 for AV6103

H2: 2026 - Rapid Approval for AVA6K orphan indication

H2: 2026 onwards - deal done for maximum shareholder value

Nothing goes up in a straight line. We have to remember that over 62 million were issued at 50p in March. Since mid April they’ve been underwater. Some people will be taking some profit / de-risking.

Energy,

Please don’t use a generic document to set a deadline here. Whilst that guide may be correct for AS’s leaving it also may not be.

The reality is that ‘leaving’ for senior people is usually to some extent a process of negotiation whatever the circumstances. Even when the decision comes heavily from one side or the other there will be a settlement agreement that will govern how the departure occurs including with certainty that AS will not be able to speak about it.

The Board will of course have to act in the best interests of shareholders in reaching a settlement with AS

Me too cj62, the Newcastle and Blades bit. Not as confident on the ‘speculation’ part.

Should have been clearer, I was replying to WeAreGroot…