Member Info for jerry004

I am encouraged by the fact that Castings are spending 17M of their cash pile to build a new foundry over the next 2 years. Of course this doesn't say anything about whether CMH have what it takes to compete, but it does suggest there is room for growth in this industry (onshoring, supply chains, etc). I originally bought because it had been in Simon Knott's RIII portfolio, though the new managers sold it when he retired. I bought quite recently, and have kept buying a bit more as it has dropped. I don't know anything about TB though.

This all makes sense. I just hope the SP doesn't drift down on v.low volumes, as if it does and there does need to be another capital raise (I think there probably won't be) it could affect the issuance price and thus cause more dilution for those who don't participate in the raise, or buy more shares at the lower price to avoid dilution.

So, what will his play be here, do you think?

I have to say though, I am finding it quite tempting to up my holding to a million shares, just because I very much doubt I'll ever do that with anything else. Probably not really a very sensible investment strategy though.

Am I being dim, but how does having a higher P/E than it's closest peer make it cheap? Ot is that a typo for the H&T P/E?

I suspect the main potential buyers of this are more interested in injecting capital into the company if/when it needs it in order to protect their prior investment. Actual purchase of shares in the open market isn't going to make much difference to the company itself at this time.

I mean, the 9 May RNS made it clear enough that Trevor Brown WA buying 3.5M shares in the placing, but gaining an interest in 10.1M. It said it in two places. It's not hidden really, though sounds like they should have reported it quicker.

9.5% held by Downing Micro Strategic, which appear to be liquidating.

This just looks like part of the placing of new shares.

Rivaldo

1) You've got the market cap wrong (at 2p/ share it's 3.6M)

2) The debt reduction is not on top of the 3M sale price, its's because if it: they haven't magically generated 2.6M out of thin air.

1.3M difference between the trustees valuation of the pension, and the IFRS17 valuation.

I wonder how that will eventually get resolved.

Will you be giving out advice on sucking eggs next?

Makes you realise it doesn't take a lot of money to shift the price on these small aim sticks.

I wouldn't take much notice of a commentator who doesn't know that the biggest holding is UMG. It means they've been looking on the wrong place for their information.

NB, that equivalent number was 432,000 in the 2019 report, and jumped most from 2020 to 21, which is consistent with what they say about it being associated with BorgWerner cutting ties.

For the PAYE liability, I am assuming that it is actually I cluded on the balance sheet on the 2023 annual report. In note 15 (current liabilities), there is 2,188,000 for under trade and other payables, for other taxation and social security. Anyone have a view on this. I'm not clear.

As long as we were net equity -9000, as stated, and not -1.7M as of that report, I guess it's not really that troublesome a revelation.

Google raglan capital. Headed up by the same person, a Mr. Cathal Friel

They have really only repeated the forecasts from the annual report.

However what the annual report has, and this hasn't, are the risk statements in, for example, the going concern section.

I think my main lesson from this has been to carefully read those as well as the forecasts & broker notes. There are certainly some pertinent uncertainties in there which I shall be keeping an eye on in future updates.

I still doubled down and now have an average cost of 2.6p, mind.

Scrap that. I'm talking nonsense.

At first glance I thought 2p was outrageous. However thinking about it a 30% discount to current share price when the new shares will be worth about 25% less due to the dilution is not so bad.