RE: Public hearing of the EIA 17.6.20264 Jun 2026 09:20
I am not so sure - my own view is that once the impact of this sinks in there should be an influx of buyers front running the 30 June decision. Clearly bigger funds won't buy while there is uncertainty - but any detailed review of what's going on should be showing a compelling buy opportunity now.
This is because while its tight there can be a definitive decision on the environmental approval on or before June 30.
This is a real time and massive validation of what the CRMA framework is designed to do - basically ensure big decisions are taken within defined timeframes to show that the EU can do things that are of strategic importance - stopping the business as usual delay narrative that has hampered the EU and led to its strategic supply chain fragility.
The reason I am robust about this requires a recap:
- 31 December 2025 (EIA Submitted) - with Geomet lodging an incredibly detailed EIA, with modeling to show exactly how deep-mining water table impacts are managed.
- February 2026 Regional Rezoning Approved - The project arguably cleared the highest hurdle it faced by securing local land-use laws and spatial planning - once this regional level is sorted - national can support.
-- May 2026 - another huge tick - The Ministry of Env officially published the EIA, confirming the documentation met all strict completeness requirements - remember this work was done by the MoE's own independent consultant - providing the technical and objective evidence to support the MoE decision - this ensures the decision is based on robust science/geology etc
May 2026 (EMH RNS) - Update on the limited cross-border EIA, proving it is limited strictly to underground mining hydrology and confirming meetings had happened with all technical models already shared with German authorities.
Now - we have
11 June - an absolute deadline for public concerns to be submitted in writing, leaving a 6-day review window before the public hearing - these objections to have any real impact must focus on the EIA.
17 June Public Hearing - The live presentation and debate to ensure all local and cross-border public feedback is officially logged into the record.
On or before 30 June -Final Decision - This is possible - but it could be deferred - this is when the Ministry delivers the final binding EIA environmental clearance - the trigger for 36m just transition funds.
The key question at this point is whether the environmental approval can be issued on or before 30 June 2026 - the entire CRMA framework, the funding and the reputation of the CZ/CEZ approach is on the line - as is the EU CRMA framework - and they will want to show big investors (like POSCO) they are in control. So - I am 60% certain the decision will be made on or before 30 June - I am 100% certain it will be a yes (even if slightly deferred with a grant extension)