Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Morning all, tbh I was never sure but had suspected AVA6000 if successful would have an accelerated route to market especially if it replicated the results garnered in animal models.
Marvelous to hear the words "phase 2 will be pivotal and give market approval" straight from the bosees mouth.
I would give my right arm to retire by 2025, looks like it could be significantly earlier.. fingers crossed:)
I think we will list on NASDAQ in the not too distant future, but someone here posited that it was pulled due to Paul saying our test had 100% sensitivity, most likely he was mixing up with specificity but who knows.
We all know Avactas AVA6000 prodoxorubicin is about to start clinical trials and if the data received by end of 2021 is positive this will allow a further pipeline of pro chemo drugs.
If AVA6000 results in humans shows even 25% of what it has shown in animal models it will be a massive improvement on the standard chemo drugs.
Avacta have 3 further prodrugs ready to go immediately on successful data.
TAM
Duxorubicin $1 billion
Velcade $1.2 billion (2018)
Paclitaxel $3 billion
Oxaliplatin $0.9 billion
Total $6.1 billion and thats a small part of a $50 billion chemo drug market that we could eventually target.
As these are generic and off patent they are reasonably cheap, a pro drug version of these could easily be sold for double and still be a cheap treatment.
Also the pro drugs will take the complete market share from the standard drug.
$6.1 billion x 2 = $12.2 billion
As well as this the amount of pro chemo drug safely taken can easily be doubled or tripled, lets say double.
$12.2 bllion x 2 = $24.4 billion
Again the pro drug can be taken by lots more patients that otherwise could not due to health issues such as a weak heart etc. Say a 25% increase in patient numbers.
$24.4 biliion +25% = $30.5 bilion
There are a lot of unscrupulous charcacters on this BB that would try to make you believe that revenues from PreCision will be many years away.
Well we heard from the horses mouth in todays interview that we will have data on prodoxorubican by end 2021 and if successful that will enable our other 3 prochemo drugs to move immediately into trials.
AS also said that due to duxirubican being a well known and understood drug means AVA6000 will be ready to go after phase 2 trials, phase 3 is not needed, phase 2 will be "pivotal" and give "market approval".
Ignoring the Covid opportunities, all the other diagnostics, the many collaborations, joint venture, TMAC and god knows whatever else pops up along the way, you can see why AS mentions us in same breath as Abbott, Roche etc.
We are lucky to be in here early as the possibilities are mind blowing, obviously I recommend long term hold for gold!
Tbh I sold out of odx recently and piled it all in here on yesterday low.
Cant help myself ffs.
Did well out of odx but beyond covid there is not a lot for them.
Avacta on the other hand will eventually have a TAM in £100s billions, a lot of opportunities here.
Retire by 55 for me :)
Down 5% I think anybody selling out are crazy.
I can understand a quick trade for a possible few extra shares.
The problem there though is often at the bottom of a treeshake its always difficult to buy any significant amount before it bounces.
Good luck to those that do though.
Good find retireby40 pretty much exactly my sentiment.
Very happy to see £48 million cash in hand, i was sure we would have burnt through a lot more than that.
We will soon be pulling in significant monthly revenues that will fund development of a huge number of additional diagnostic, precision and TMAC pipelines.
Expecting a bit of a treeshake today, ive never held any stop loss here and will be holding long term.
Well that is bad news especially on top of the fact 50–75% of the time an individual is PCR positive, they are likely to be post-infectious.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00425-6/fulltext
Fragments of RNA can linger for weeks after infectious virus has been cleared, often in people without symptoms or known exposures.
However, for public health measures, another approach is needed. Testing to help slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 asks not whether someone has RNA in their nose from earlier infection, but whether they are infectious today. It is a net loss to the health, social, and economic wellbeing of communities if post-infectious individuals test positive and isolate for 10 days. In our view, current PCR testing is therefore not the appropriate gold standard for evaluating a SARS-CoV-2 public health test.
Who knows how much revenue we will pull in from our Covid testing opportunity, I think it will be massive but it doesn't need to be for this company to be huge.
Avacta have had the science but what they haven't had is the finances. When we pull in some more cold hard cash the business will be propelled into the fast lane.
Ignoring the Chemo and oncology side of the business lets not forget everything else the Diagnostic side is targeting.
We know they have several in house Affimer diagnostics targeting large TAMs.
1. The obvious one the holy grail Covid19 tests TAM $unknown number with a hella lot of zeros
2. TRAIL and CRP - Sepsis - Differentiation between viral and bacterial infection TAM $1.1 Billion CAGR of 9.4% (sadly 270000 usa citizens die of sepsis every year)
3. Estradiol (E2) - E2 measured for fertility treatment -TAM $8.03 Billion CAGR 8.1% (TAM by 2025 $15.09 Billion)
4. D-Dimer - Cardiac marker (current tests lack.. guess what specificity) - TAM 2025 $2 Billion
5 Vitamin B12 - B12 deficiency causes anemia, current testing does not measure active B12 in the blood - TAM $220 million
Just think about it, these are only what we know is in the pipeline, what else do we not?
Also how many cellulose strips were used to perfect the covid LFT? was it a 100?
Thats a lot of experimentation to get it perfect, will this strip work equally well with Affimers for other targets?
Maybe or maybe not but either way a huge amount of experience has been gleaned from this to advance all of Avactas other diagnostics pipeline.
We are all here in part because we know Affimers are superior to ABs in so many ways, I strongly believe Avacta will be a Diagnostics behemoth in its own right.
Give it a while and the big pharma will be beating at the door here with an offer we cant refuse.
Though hopefully if anyone puts in an offer for the Theraputics side Big Al tells them to do one :)