Member Info for Jasper13

Analysing results...:-)

We are at day 6 not day 7. The spud occurred local time on Friday 14 March at 2;30 pm. Day 6 has concluded.

I suspect if TD reached they will be at this stage:

"It is then planned to acquire a "Quad Combo" logging suite in the well for a comprehensive formation evaluation of

target zones. This will include Gamma Ray, Density, Neutron, Inline Dipole Sonic, Laterolog Resisvity and Mul-Arm Caliper

logs. Once logs are evaluated, the well will be cased and suspended."

We are not told how long this will take.

I don't see news tomorrow but early next week. Able to buy today at 1st placing price. Crazy really!!!

Tough few days to say the least for all genuine shareholders. I have taken time to consider matters and tried to pragmatically reflect considering the known detail along with communication I had with PG a while back.

We still don’t have all the detail on the well, so everything being spouted is just pure conjecture. Why was the RNS sent knowing this? I believe hands were forced due to Eva selling down some of their holding. This doesn’t feel right and smacks of dire practice, if they’ve been privy to detail. Or there could be another reason? Someone wants in.

ONHYM have “egg on face” off the back of Anchois. PG’s words not mine. They control the shots not PRD. PG reluctantly won’t like this. But his hand maybe being forced. His style may also be rubbing key stakeholders up the wrong way.

I don’t trust any dealings with African government bodies or officials. So when people mention dirty tricks I’m inclined to agree. If someone wants in cheap, it’ll happen.

PG has tried to spin narrative in the RNS with positive sentiment ( farm in, new unknown sands, helium etc). Perhaps he was allowed to do that but say no more.

Why has the well been shut in but available for re-entry? Did they miss the target ? Or are they going deeper into the Jurassic?

Something doesn’t add up with all this and it feels somewhat orchestrated. Dirty tricks? Yes possibly in play.

I am happy, with a large holding, to sit tight and wait to see what unfolds. Am I happy with the share price, posting narrative and name calling on this board, absolutely not. If people choose to insult, see pleasure in people’s frustration and ultimately loss if they sold, then they are nothing but despicable human beings.

You invest to try and make money. Knowing the risk.

Feels like the risk maybe still high here but I for one don’t think all is what it seems.

Positive Outcomes: The drilling results are broadly encouraging. The confirmation of the Domerian carbonate’s presence, the unexpected sandstone discovery, and the helium show collectively enhance the prospectivity of the Guercif Licence. These findings validate Predator’s pre-drill geological model and open up multiple avenues for exploration, which could increase the asset’s attractiveness to potential farm-in partners.

Uncertainties Remain: While the results are promising, they are preliminary. The Domerian carbonate’s reservoir quality and extent are still unproven, and the well’s downdip location means the best part of the structure remains untested. The helium show is interesting but not yet a game-changer without further data on its source and volume.

Strategic Positioning: Predator’s decision to pursue a farmout aligns with the realities of a small-cap explorer. The MOU-5 results provide enough upside to pitch to larger players with the capital and expertise to advance the project. Success here could significantly derisk the Jurassic play and boost Predator’s valuation.

Market Perception: For investors, this update offers a mix of optimism and caution. The operational success and new discoveries are positives, but the need for additional seismic and a farmout introduces timelines and execution risks. Paul Griffiths’ confident tone may reassure shareholders, though tangible progress (e.g., securing a farminee) will be key to sustaining momentum.

Helium Angle: The helium show is a wildcard. If further evaluation confirms a viable helium resource, it could diversify Predator’s portfolio beyond hydrocarbons, tapping into a high-demand, high-value market. This aspect deserves close attention in future updates.

Conclusion

The MOU-5 drilling update is a step forward for Predator Oil & Gas, reinforcing the potential of the Guercif Licence while highlighting areas for further work. The company has skillfully balanced cost efficiency with exploration upside, positioning itself to attract partners for the next phase. While not a definitive "home run," the results strengthen Predator’s narrative as an agile explorer with a growing asset base in Morocco. The success of the farmout process and the quality of upcoming seismic data will be critical in determining whether this "Jurassic Project" can deliver on its promise. For now, it’s a solid foundation to build upon.

The Wilson River-1 well sits in the Cooper Basin, a proven hydrocarbon province, and the use of 2D and 3D seismic data alongside offset well results does bolster the odds of a successful outcome. Adjacent wells—like those in the nearby Tintaburra field—have historically tapped into the same target formations (Murta, Birkhead, Hutton), with varying degrees of success in oil and gas shows. The seismic data likely helped refine the trap geometry and reservoir potential, reducing some of the wildcat risk, even though this is still an exploration play.

The offset wells probably gave Condor and Empyrean a decent handle on drilling conditions too—expected pressures, formation thicknesses, and potential pay zones. If the 3D seismic tied into those logs cleanly, they’d have a solid picture of where the hydrocarbons might sit. The Quad Combo logs in the next day or two should start painting a clearer picture.

The Quad Combo—typically gamma ray, resistivity, density, and neutron logs—should give a solid read on hydrocarbon presence and reservoir quality. Oil shows would light up as fluorescence or resistivity spikes, especially in the Birkhead or Hutton sands, which are known to hold oil in nearby fields like Tintaburra.

Permeability and porosity are the real game-changers, though. The Hutton sandstone, for instance, often clocks in with porosity around 15-20% in the Cooper Basin, sometimes higher, and permeability in the tens to hundreds of millidarcies when it’s good. The Birkhead’s a bit patchier—porosity might hover closer to 10-15%, with permeability more variable—but it’s produced elsewhere. If the logs show porosity above 12-15% and permeability in the double-digit millidarcies, you’d have a reservoir that could flow without too much coaxing. Anything less, and they might need to lean on a Drill Stem Test to see if it’s commercial.

Https://x.com/Jasper13_01/status/1901903128653451703

Why are posts being deleted?

CupWinner...

New NAV based upon increased 52.8% stake to EME.

Low case scenario (8.7MMBOE) - 50% recovery factor/$44.80 gross profit per barrel (based upon Bass Oil Worrior & Padula field - Cooper Basin.

NAV - 10 year field span/10% DCF/52.8% share to EME = $49.8m NAV - £0.0131p

Mean case scenario - (21.3MMBOE) - 50% recovery factor/$44.80 gross profit per barrel (based upon Bass Oil Worrior & Padula field - Cooper Basin.

NAV - 10 year field span/10% DCF/52.8% share to EME = $122.2m NAV - £0.0258p

MAKO...

NPV10 of US$49m (Sept 22 RNS) - £0.0121p - (Buyer willing to pay say 50% of that value - £0.0062p)

So Wilson low case £0.0131p + Mako £0.0062p = £0.0193p

So Wilson mean case £0.0258p + Mako £0.0062p = £0.032p

Huge upside, seriously undervalued. 14 x bagger for low case, 22x bagger for mean case.

Last chance to buy at these low levels, imo. Results could come as early as Wednesday this week. Only a 5-6 day drill.

There are two PROJECTS now to consider. Mako and Wilson. Mako is a known, quite simple sell down of EME share in licence. Priced in? Absolutely not based on the NPV calcs. Wilson priced in? Absolutely not. Known prolific producing basin and nearest well drilled came in good.

Any sustained buying and this moves, and fast.

Something appears to be igniting buying.....leak?

I’d estimate Wilson River-1’s chance of success (finding commercial hydrocarbons) at 30-50%, leaning toward the higher end if seismic imaging is high-quality and offset data strongly supports maturity and migration. This is based on:

The basin’s historical success rate for structural traps (~20-40% for oil in the Eromanga, higher in proven trends).

The multi-target approach, which stacks odds across primary (Murta, Birkhead, Hutton) and secondary (Cadna-owie, Namur) zones.

Regional evidence of oil in similar settings (e.g., Kangaroo-1, Naccowlah Block).

To evaluate the potential success of Empyrean Energy's Wilson River-1 well in ATP 1173, Southwest Queensland, Australia, we need to consider the geological context of the target formations (Murta, Birkhead, and Hutton) within the Eromanga Basin, historical drilling outcomes, and the specifics of the well design. Below, I’ll break this down based on the geological characteristics of these formations, insights from previous exploration efforts in the region, and the operational plan outlined.

Geological Context of Target Formations:

Murta Formation (Cretaceous)

Characteristics: The Murta Formation consists of fluvio-lacustrine siltstones and sandstones with high organic matter content. It’s recognized as one of the most important source rocks in the Eromanga Basin, with studies showing low to excellent total organic carbon (TOC) content and thermal maturity at the onset of the oil window (immature to early mature). It also exhibits good hydrocarbon generation potential, with some areas showing high production indices.

Reservoir Potential: The Murta Formation includes lacustrine shoreface and turbidite sandstones that have historically acted as reservoirs. Porosity and permeability can vary, but where sands are well-developed, it has proven productive (e.g., the McKinlay Member).

Historical Success: Oil has been discovered in the Murta Formation, notably at Dullingari-North 1, and it’s a secondary target in fields like the Naccowlah Block, where near-field exploration has yielded results.

Birkhead Formation (Jurassic)

Characteristics: This formation comprises fluvio-lacustrine siltstones, carbonaceous shales, and sandstones. It’s another key source rock with good to very good hydrocarbon generation potential, though kerogen-to-bitumen conversion is generally low. Thermal maturity is also at the oil window’s onset in many areas, with vitrinite reflectance indicating suitability for oil generation in regions like the Nappamerri Trough and Southwest Queensland.

Reservoir Potential: Meandering fluvial sandstones in the Birkhead Formation serve as reservoirs, though expulsion efficiency has been low in some areas, suggesting late entry into the oil window. However, where structural traps align with mature source rocks, it has produced oil.

Historical Success: Notable discoveries include a 20-meter oil column in the Kangaroo-1 well (2016) in the Birkhead Formation, expanding prospectivity westward in the basin, and contributions to fields along the Naccowlah-Jackson Ridge.

Hutton Sandstone (Jurassic)

Characteristics: A widespread, high-energy fluvial sandstone with excellent reservoir qualities—porosities up to 25% and permeabilities up to 2500 mD. It’s less of a source rock and more of a primary reservoir, often charged by hydrocarbons migrating from the Birkhead or Murta formations.

Reservoir Potential: The Hutton Sandstone is a principal reservoir in the Cooper-Eromanga region, with braided fluvial sands

The Naccowlah Block, located in southwest Queensland, has seen recent successful drilling activities. In August 2023, Bounty Oil & Gas NL reported the successful drilling of the Watkins North 1 well within this block.

Given that the Naccowlah Block is situated in the Cooper-Eromanga Basin, adjacent to ATP 1173, the Watkins North 1 well represents one of the nearest successful drills to the northwest corner of ATP 1173. The well recorded good oil shows in the middle Birkhead/GC 30 horizon. Subsequent logging and pressure tests confirmed the presence of a good reservoir. The well was cased and connected to the existing production infrastructure via the Watson Field facilities in late 2023.

EME are drilling into the Birkhead horizon as disclosed in today's RNS.

Good detail about well also...https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/empyrean-energy--eme/drilling-of-wilson-river-1-well-commences/8779786

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The link is in the Telegram group and works.

Page 16 says it all - https://diamantinaenergy.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Diamantina_presentation_v17.pdf

> two well drilling program!!

> numerous oil leads over shallow depths (1400m)

> 94mmbo in place

> close to refinery, oil pipeline and refinery

New NAV based upon increased 52.8% stake to EME.

Low case scenario (8.7MMBOE) - 50% recovery factor/$44.80 gross profit per barrel (based upon Bass Oil Worrior & Padula field - Cooper Basin.

NAV - 10 year field span/10% DCF/52.8% share to EME = $49.8m NAV - £0.0131p

Mean case scenario - (21.3MMBOE) - 50% recovery factor/$44.80 gross profit per barrel (based upon Bass Oil Worrior & Padula field - Cooper Basin.

NAV - 10 year field span/10% DCF/52.8% share to EME = $122.2m NAV - £0.0258p

MAKO...

NPV10 of US$49m (Sept 22 RNS) - £0.0121p - (Buyer willing to pay say 50% of that value - £0.0062p)

So Wilson low case £0.0131p + Mako £0.0062p = £0.0193p

So Wilson mean case £0.0258p + Mako £0.0062p = £0.032p

Huge upside, seriously undervalued. 14 x bagger for low case, 22x bagger for mean case.

Very likely we get a spud RNS on Monday morning following recent communication. Not many have really cotton on or understood where EME are drilling in the prolific Cooper oil and gas producing basin. You only have to look at Santos Energy and Bridgeport Energy to understand what surrounds EME's ATP 1173 Lease.

https://newhopegroup.com.au/bridgeport/asset-maps/

https://www.santos.com/news/santos-expands-carbon-capture-and-storage-acreage-in-cooper-basin/

You won't be able to buy at these levels for much longer.